The biggest games in the Southeastern Conference this week took place outside the conference, in Waco, Texas and Eugene, Oregon. While the chance of a seventh straight national champion from the SEC looked lost just last week, now with just one week of football remaining in the regular season there are two conference teams that seem poised to make their way into the BCS Championship Game (BCSCG) in Miami, and another couple of teams with an outside shot. This week, we're going to examine the path that each of these teams has before them. Let's start The Rundown!
1. Alabama (10-1, BCS #2)
As the defending national champion and top-ranked team for most of the 2012 season, most of the focus has been on how the losses by both Kansas State and Oregon has given the Tide new life in the national championship race. However, Alabama still has to take care of business against Auburn (3-7) to make it to the SEC championship game, much less the BCS game. The Tide's biggest win this season was the last-second victory over LSU two weeks ago, while their only loss was last week's 29-24 verdict to Texas A&M. Assuming a win over Auburn, 'Bama will face Georgia in the title game in Atlanta. The Bulldogs have looked like a different team since safety Shawn Williams called the defense out for being "soft," and won't be an easy out. If Alabama wins both games, they will be in the BCSCG no matter what else happens.
2. Georgia (10-1, BCS #3)
Georgia has slowly worked its way into a great position right behind Alabama. In addition, the Bulldogs have the added advantage of having received very little national attention after their mid-season 35-7 loss to South Carolina, so it will be easy for the Georgia team to play the Rodney Dangerfield role. The Bulldogs' biggest win was over Florida, who has a pretty strong resume of its own. Georgia also has a rivalry game this week, against Georgia Tech (6-5), that it must win to stay in the national title hunt. Like the Tide, if the Bulldogs win out over the SEC West champion - either Alabama, LSU, or Texas A&M* - they will play in the BCS title game regardless of what any other team does.
3. Florida (10-1, BCS #4)
Florida has the strongest resume of any one-loss team, having defeated LSU, Texas A&M, and South Carolina, all in the top 12. However, the Gators have looked pretty mediocre since falling 17-9 to Georgia, although that very possibly could be attributed to a lack of focus after the loss. Florida also has the toughest remaining game, a rivalry showdown against Florida State (10-1) in Tallahassee. If the Gators get past the Seminoles, they will still need help to make it to Miami. A Notre Dame loss to USC next week could pit Florida against either Alabama or Georgia, although a voter backlash against another all-SEC title game could occur. However, that's where Florida's strong resume would help them in the computer rankings. Florida could also ease into the game even if Notre Dame won out, if a) Alabama loses to Auburn, then LSU beats Georgia or if b) Georgia loses to Georgia Tech and then beats Alabama.
4. LSU (9-2, BCS #7)
This is the chaos scenario. LSU is the highest-ranked team with two losses, but there is still a slim possibility that they could go to Miami. The Tigers' two losses, to Alabama and Florida, were close contests, which has kept them ranked in the bottom half of the top ten. What LSU would need is a major clear-out ahead of them. If Alabama somehow lost to Auburn, that puts LSU in the SEC Championship Game, and likely drops Alabama behind them. If LSU won over the 'Dawgs, that eliminates Georgia. Florida would probably also have to lose to Florida State. Then, for good measure, either Notre Dame would need to fall to USC by a lot, Oregon would have to lose to Oregon State, and/or Kansas State probably needs to lose to Texas. None of those outcomes seem all that unlikely by themselves, but they probably won't ALL happen. The X factor in this scenario is Florida State. Voters would likely put Florida State ahead of Florida in the human polls, but the computers hate FSU. Would a win over Florida boost them enough to overtake LSU? Hard to say, but fun to think about, isn't it?
5. The Good
(7) LSU 41, Ole Miss 35
While LSU's defense decided to take a week off, the fact is that this once-great rivalry game was entertaining and in doubt until the final seconds. Hugh Freeze has done more with less than anyone else in the conference, and LSU should have charged admission to the post-game Les Miles press conference, because it was quite a show. At the end of the day, Ole Miss's dreams died in Tiger Stadium, and the Bayou Bengals escaped with a hard fought win.
Vanderbilt 41, Tennessee 18
The Commodores smashed the Vols at home for the first time in three decades, and have reached all kinds of historic highs in coach James Franklin's second year. The real question is whether or not Vandy can hang on to Franklin. I hear that there's a job opening in Knoxville...
Mississippi State 45, Arkansas 14
Tyler Russell threw four touchdowns as the Bulldogs routed Arkansas, putting a final nail in the coffin of the Razorbacks' bowl hopes. At least they'll be able to focus on the coaching search in Fayetteville.
6. The Bad
Syracuse 31, Missouri 27
Missouri missed out on their best chance to get bowl eligible in 2012, giving up 21 points in the fourth quarter to a feisty Syracuse squad and their record-setting quarterback Ryan Nassib. The Tigers' quarterback James Franklin had his his best showing of the season, but left the game after a hit that rang his bell. Corbin Berkstresser again filled in for Franklin, and led the team to ten fourth quarter points, but the defense, and particularly the secondary, fell apart late in the game. The loss broke Mizzou's school-record 18-game winning streak versus nonconference opponents.
7. The Ugly
SEC versus FCS
For whatever reason, every SEC team still chooses to schedule teams from the FCS division of college football - the division known for many years as I-AA. While they still count as wins on the schedule, the best that can be said about playing FCS teams is that it may allow a team to build some experience among the second and third team players. However, generally it provides a lackluster game for the fans, an chance for players to get hurt with absolutely nothing useful on the line, and an opportunity for a cataclysmically embarrassing loss (see, Michigan vs. Appalachian State). So, while Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia Kentucky, South Carolina, and Texas A&M all won fairly handily over their FCS opponents, in reality any game against an FCS school is an ugly one.
8. Games to Watch in Week Thirteen
Florida (10-1) at Florida State (10-1)
This is an intense rivalry, and arguably the best game on the slate in week 13. Florida State has only lost one game, by one point, to a mediocre NC State squad, but they have been all but eliminated from the national title talk due to weak ACC competition. Florida has exceeded expectations all season, but has looked lethargic since losing Jeff Driskel to an ankle injury. With pride, a BCS bowl, and a very slim shot at the national title on the line, expect both teams to be ready to make a statement. I think the Seminoles have more to prove though, and I expect an FSU win.
LSU (9-2) at Arkansas (4-7)
This will probably not be much of a contest, unless the competition is about who has the goofiest coach. It'll be worth seeing just to catch the pre-, mid-, and post-game interviews with Les Miles and John L. Smith. LSU by at least 17.
South Carolina (9-2) at Clemson (10-1)
If
Florida State has been disrespected for losing one game, the Clemson
Tigers seemed to have fallen in a hole after their early loss to Florida
State. Honestly, I had no idea that they had only lost one game, and I
follow college football pretty closely, in case you hadn't noticed.
There's no love lost between these two schools or their coaches. I
think this is a tossup game, but I'm leaning South Carolina, mainly due
to their defense.
Auburn (3-7) at Alabama (10-1)
Auburn is a 35-point underdog. Who wouldn't want to see that?
Georgia Tech (6-5) at Georgia (10-1)
It has been many years since this game has had national championship implications, and while Tech is not a great team, their triple option offense is difficult to prepare for in practice. Still, Georgia has won the last three in a row over the Yellow Jackets, and should handle them easily this time.
Mississippi State (8-3) at Ole Miss (5-6)
Although the Bulldogs have a better record, the Rebels have played a tougher schedule. State was blown out by Alabama (7-38), Texas A&M (13-38) and LSU (17-37), while Ole Miss played all of those teams better - Alabama (14-33), Texas A&M (27-30), and LSU (35-41). Historically, this is truly one of the few rivalry games where you can "throw out the record books." I have therefore convinced myself that Ole Miss, with a chance at bowl eligibility, has more to play for on Saturday and will emerge with the win.
Missouri (5-6) at Texas A&M (9-2)
The SEC's new teams meet up in a Big-XII rematch, but these two programs are going in different directions. Johnny Manziel needs a big game to solidify his Heisman candidacy, and having watched the Mizzou secondary, I think he gets it. The Aggies win big.
Kentucky (2-9) at Tennessee (4-7)
Bad News: Neither of these teams has won a conference game. Good News: Since there are no more ties, one of them has to get a win!
*Texas A&M can only go to Atlanta if both Alabama and LSU lose Saturday.
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