SEC Championship Game Preview

(3) Georgia vs (2) Alabama

For the second year in a row, the Georgia Bulldogs avoided the top four teams in the SEC West on its way to winning the SEC East.  While the Bulldogs finished 11-1 in the regular season, it split its only two games with teams that are still ranked, losing 35-7 to South Carolina while defeating Florida 17-9.  Alabama, on the other hand, avoided the top four teams in the SEC East on its way to winning the West.  Alabama also finished 11-1 and split its only two games with teams that are still ranked, losing 29-24 to Texas A&M while defeating LSU 21-17.  The Tide and the Bulldogs did have several common opponents though:

Alabama vs.           Team                               Georgia vs.
40-7                        Florida Atlantic (3-8)        56-20
33-14                      Ole Miss (6-6)                 37-10
42-10                      Missouri (5-7)                  41-20
44-13                      Tennessee (5-7)                51-44
49-0                        Auburn (3-9)                    38-0

I don't know if you can tell much except that both teams handled their common opponents pretty easily.  The only real outlier is the Georgia-Tennessee score, but since that game preceded both Georgia's defensive regrouping following the South Carolina loss as well as Tennessee's subsequent meltdown, even that one is easily explained.

Georgia's main weaknesses overall this year have been mainly on the defensive side of the ball, although the Bulldogs have one of the best defenders in the league in Jarvis Jones.  Georgia has had a tendency to turn the ball over and get a lot of penalties, although both of those issues have been diminished a good bit following the Florida game, although that could point more to the inferiority of the competition since then.

Alabama's main weakness is the defensive secondary and the absense of a strong pass rusher, although only LSU and Texas A&M were the only teams that were able to reveal it.  Alabama does not give up many penalties and doesn't turn the ball over much either.

I think Alabama and Georgia match up well against each other and are mirror images of each other in a lot of ways.  Further, the teams haven't played each other since the 2008 "Blackout" Game, and only the coaching staffs and maybe a couple of redshirt seniors here and there took part in that, so there's not a lot of familiarity between the two squads.  I think that Alabama's opponent that was the most like Georgia is LSU.  Aaron Murray is a better quarterback than Zach Mettenberger, and Mettenberger had a career day against Alabama.  If the Tide doesn't find a way to get pressure on Murray, he will pick the secondary apart.    Georgia also has a pair of good running backs, similar to LSU, which will make it harder for the Tide to make them one-dimensional.  Georgia's opponent that was the most like Alabama is probably South Carolina.  Carolina had a decent quarterback in Connor Shaw, but one I would argue that is not quite as good as AJ McCarron.  The actual game against Carolina doesn't really tell us much, however, since the Gamecocks were able to break the game open early with three quick touchdowns, and Georgia was pretty much out of the game by the end of the first quarter.  Marcus Lattimore had over 100 yards against the Bulldogs, but again, the Gamecocks hardly tried to do anything but sit on the lead and run out the clock once they were up 21-0.

All that being said, I believe Alabama has a slightly better team, a significantly better coach, and more experience in high-pressure, high-profile games.  I expect a close contest, and a relatively low-scoring one, along the lines of 24-20, with the Tide coming out on top.