Friday, November 27, 2009

Review: No. 2 Alabama 26, Auburn 21

Auburn came in to the Iron Bowl throwing everything that they had at Alabama and landed two early touchdowns against the Tide. Facing a 14-0 deficit - the largest of the season, Alabama fought back to tie it up at the half. In the second half of the game, Auburn again struck early, and looked to be poised for the upset. But the Tide fought back, scoring two field goals and then driving 79 yards for the game-winning touchdown with 1:24 remaining.

The Tide can now look forward to next week's SEC Championship Game. Alabama has 21 SEC championships throughout its history, more than any other school. Alabama won the first SEC title in 1933 as well as the first SEC Championship Game in 1992. The Tide is also the only program to win a conference championship in every decade since the inception of the conference, although that record is in jeopardy. Alabama has to defeat Florida on Saturday to win a title in the 2000s. The Tide won its last title in 1999.

My Seven Points:

1. Greg McElroy came into his own as the Alabama quarterback today. McElroy took the ball down 21-20 with 8:32 remaining in the game at the Tide 21-yard line. On the 15-play drive he completed 7 of 8 passes for 62 yards, including the go-ahead score - a four-yard play action to Roy Upchurch. Throughout the drive, McElroy, who has still never lost a game as a starting quarterback, appeared to be poised and confident, and took control of the game. Auburn's plan was to hold Mark Ingram in check and force McElroy to beat them, and to their chagrin, he did.

2. Julio Jones had possibly the best performance of his Alabama career. While the yardage (9 receptions for 83 yards) wasn't his best, Jones made one clutch reception after another on the final drive, securing yardage and first downs to keep the drive alive. Jones also made several crucial blocks in the running game as well. He appears to be all the way back from his early season issues.

3. Javier Arenas probably made the difference in the game. Clutch returns from Arenas gave Alabama excellent field position in several key situations. Arenas returned one kickoff for 46 yards and two punts for a total of 67 yards., including a long of 56. Arenas now holds the SEC record for career punt return yardage (1,723) and is only 38 yards away for the all-time NCAA record. Not bad for a guy who nearly walked away from football three years ago.

4. Mark Ingram, on the other hand, was clearly not himself today. I'm not sure if Ingram is out of the Heisman race or not. It's certainly possible. But Ingram had 16 carries for 30 yards and appeared to be injured late in the game. He did not appear in the final drive.

5. In many ways, the Alabama defense struggled against Auburn's offense. Alabama held Auburn well below their season averages in total yardage and points, but did allow the Tigers 332 yards of offense, including 151 on the ground. Auburn achieved a lot of its yardage on big plays as well - a 67-yard TD run by Terrell Zachery and the 72-yard TD pass from Chris Todd to Darvin Adams. The key to the game, however, may have been the two turnovers that the defense forced, as well as the the last defensive stop before the Tide's final drive.

6. The Tide has completed something that had never been accomplished in SEC history. In 2008, Alabama became the first team in SEC history to complete an 12-0 undefeated regular season. Now the Tide has done it two years in a row. Not bad for only three years in to the Nick Saban era.

7. The Crimson Tide did its part to set up what may be the biggest SEC Championship game in conference history. Last year Alabama came into Atlanta ranked #1 and Florida came in #2. This year the roles are reversed, but the difference is that both teams have a chance to be undefeated as well. Alabama took care of business today, but Florida will need to knock off Florida State tomorrow to make it happen. Assuming that they do, one of the two teams will be in the BCS National Championship Game.

Saturday, November 21, 2009

Review: No. 2 Alabama 45, UT-Chattanooga 0

Well, the only unknowns for this week's game were 1) How long would Mark Ingram play? (a half), 2) would the Mocs score on Alabama? (an emphatic "No"), and 3) could the Tide escape without an significant injuries? (thankfully, "Yes"). Alabama was never seriously threatened by a Chattanooga team that finished with fewer than 100 yards of offense. The offense and special teams scored early and often and left ample time to get the second and third team players some time on the field in the last home game of the season. All-in-all, the best possible scenario for the second-ranked Tide.

My seven points:

1. Mark Ingram's day was perfect. Many wondered, and even asked Coach Saban, if Mark Ingram would play most of the game to pad his stats to impress Heisman voters. But Coach Saban's priorities are to do what's best for the team, and he explained that he wasn't going to play Ingram any longer than necessary. He finished with 102 yards, two big-play touchdowns, and a 9+ yard per carry average, all in the first half. Ingram's Heisman campaign will hinge on performances against Auburn and Florida. This game was relevant only in the sense that he looked good and didn't get hurt. Mission accomplished.

2. Javier Arenas set an SEC punt return record. Javier Arenas has already secured his position as the greatest Alabama punt returner of all time, but he is tantalizingly close to the best overall. Arenas returned a punt 66 yards for a touchdown against UTC, setting the SEC record for career punt return touchdowns with seven. He is only 39 yards away from the all-time SEC record for punt return yards (held by Vanderbilt's Lee Nalley) and 105 yards away from Wes Welker's (Texas Tech) NCAA record of 1,761. Arenas has three more games to achieve that career milestone, and I believe he will get it. Congratulations to him.

3. Speaking of milestones, Mark Ingram is approaching another one. Ingram's 1,399 yards this season put him well within reach of Bobby Humphey's single season record of 1,471. Ingram, of course, will play 14 games in 2009, including the bowl game, which did not count in season stats until the 1990s. But longtime fans may remember that the 1986 season did feature 13 games for the Tide, including the Kickoff Classic against Ohio State. Regardless, Ingram currently trails Humphrey by less than 100 yards with three games to go, and eclipses single-season marks by former greats Shaun Alexander, Glen Coffee, and Shaud Williams.

4. Superlative defense is again the theme of the day. Even in the second half, the the starters safely ensconced on the sideline, the Tide defense continued to dominate. The Tide allowed just 48 yards rushing and 36 yards passing to the Mocs, a total of 84 yards of offense. The Mocs had only five first downs and three turnovers, all interceptions.

5. The Tide has a short week to prepare for Auburn. The other good part about being able to pull the starters early today is that Alabama has a limited amount of time to prepare for Auburn next Friday. The Tide will most likely travel on Thursday, which means basically three days of work before the game. Auburn, of course, has had almost two weeks to get ready for the Crimson Tide. On the other hand, Alabama will get to watch Florida play Florida State next Saturday, and will have an extra day of rest before the SEC Championship.

6. Speaking of off weeks, have you ever noticed that Alabama's opponents have a bye before playing the Tide an awful lot? I've commented on it many times in the past, but the contrast in bye weeks between Alabama and the other teams in the SEC is even more striking when it is examined statistically. RollBamaRoll has featured a couple of detailed articles on this phenomenon, but this is an eye opener:

Total SEC opponents coming off bye weeks, 2007-2010
Alabama - 17
LSU - 5
Tennessee - 4
Florida - 4
Vanderbilt - 3
Georgia - 3
Auburn - 3
Kentucky - 2
Mississippi State - 1
Mississippi - 1
South Carolina - 0
Arkansas - 0

This means that in the 32 SEC games that Alabama has during this four-year period, the opponent has a bye week before the game over 50% of the time! The most anyone else has is five. Part of this is controlled by the school, part by the SEC office, but it's a pretty amazing statistic. So when you hear someone say, "They may not be a great team, but they always play Alabama hard" you'll know why. Chances are that they had a week off.

7. Pause a moment in honor of 2009's senior class. The seniors of 2009 were the last full class recruited by Mike Shula, and had to endure the Tide's last losing season, in 2006. A few have been major contributors (especially on defense), a few have been relegated to the background, and one or two considered leaving altogether (including Arenas). But this senior class has accomplished something that has not been done at Alabama in decades, winning ten or more games in consecutive years, and still has every team goal in its sights.

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Review: No. 2 Alabama 31, Mississippi State 3

Mississippi State used every possible morale builder in their arsenal - including black jerseys, a record-crowd boosted by extra seating and standing room only tickets, even a smoke machine-aided entrance - but it wasn't enough to lift the Bulldogs past the second-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide Saturday.

'Bama turned in a strong offensive performance, knocking the Bulldogs out with big plays, especially in the fourth quarter. State was able to move the ball on the Tide at times. The Bulldogs had 113 yards rushing as a team, just the second time this year that Alabama has given up more than 100, but missed opportunities and stingy defense kept MSU out of the end zone, and the Tide rolled to 10-0 (7-0 SEC) on the season.

My seven points:

1. The Tide took care of business in a difficult test tonight. Mississippi State has played one of the toughest schedules in the country this year, and their record (4-6, 2-4 SEC) shows it. But this team was down by three to Florida with ten minutes left in the game, led Houston going in the the fourth quarter of that game, and came within a yard of defeating LSU. After a physical, emotional game against LSU, Alabama figured to be vulnerable to an upset. Mississippi State did everything that they could to fire up the fans, and the team played hard, but Alabama's superior speed, talent and strength wore the Bulldogs down. The Tide did what they had to do and looked pretty good doing it. (By the way, can we all agree now that putting on black jerseys, or helmets, etc., doesn't make you a better team? I have never been more proud of Alabama's ultra-traditional uniforms.)

2. The offensive game plan showed much improvement over LSU. I was not a fan of the pass-first plan last week, and I think the win had more to do with committing to the run in the second half than it did with "loosening up" the corners by passing the ball. The offensive plan for Mississippi State on the other hand, was largely successful, mixing the run and pass within drives and getting the ball to the playmakers. Julio Jones, Marquis Maze and Darius Hanks all saw multiple receptions, and Mark Ingram and Trent Richardson continued to pound the rock. The only person I missed in the gameplan was tight end Colin Peek, who I assume is still feeling the effects of his knee sprain, although he did see more game action today.

3. The one player I expected us to miss this year in the defense was Rashad Johnson. The fact that we have not missed the All-American significantly is due in large part to Mark Barron, who should be SEC Defensive player of the week after tonight's game. Barron intercepted two passes, one of which was a spectacular diving catch, and would have caught another if Marquis Johnson has not taken it from his hands. Barron also broke up what appeared to be a sure touchdown with what looked like a 40-inch leap. The sophomore safety is getting better every week. I expect that we'll see him playing on Sunday in a year or two.

4. Speaking of Marquis Johnson, have you ever seen a player who improved on the field as much as he has over his four years at the University? Saban has helped turn this young man into an NFL-caliber cornerback. Proving that his performance against South Carolina (where he broke up one fade route after another to the corner of the end zone) was no fluke, Johnson again made several acrobatic plays to stop sure touchdown passes from the Bulldogs late in the game, without resorting to interfering with the receiver. Although Johnson did get burned on an interference call early on the first MSU drive, he recovered nicely, keeping the Bulldogs off the board on at least three different occasions, and picking off the last gasp throw just for good measure.

5. ESPN's primetime college team is good. Like most 'Bama fans, I don't care much for CBS's main play-by-play team of Verne Lundquist and Gary Danielson (CBS's second team is much worse, by the way). It is always a breath of fresh air when we have a game that is called by Brad Nessler and Todd Blackledge of ESPN. Not only do they do a better job with the human interest stuff (Taste of the Town is a always interesting and often good for a laugh), but they just don't get in the way of the game. They also made two really prescient calls tonight. First, Blackledge was talking about how Alabama HAD to get the ball to Julio Jones to win a national championship mere seconds before Greg McElroy dropped back and hit a wide-open Jones on a 48-yard touchdown. On the next possession, it was Nessler's turn, commenting that this was the time in the game that Alabama would just hand the ball to Mark Ingram a split second before McElroy handed him the ball for a 70-yard touchdown. It was like they knew what was coming before it happened, and it takes a lot of research to make things look that effortless.

6. Alabama and Florida really are two sides of the same coin. The similarities between the Tide and the Gators this year really are striking. From the defensive stats, to the points per game, to the red zone woes, to the fairly lackluster quarterback stats, there is not a whole lot of difference on paper between the two teams. Both will finish the season up with a tuneup game, and then a big rival, and meet in three weeks at the SEC Championship. Given the way that the two teams are playing right now, I'd give the edge to Alabama. The Tide is showing more consistency on offense the last couple of weeks, while Florida has continued to struggle. However, I don't expect anything but a hard-fought, closely-contested game between two of the best teams in the country. It doesn't get much better than that.

7. One more record in the books. Alabama reached the 10-0 mark for the 17th time in the program's 115-year history, an NCAA record. Alabama has had 30 ten-win seasons, which is second in the NCAA behind Oklahoma (31). It is the first time that Alabama has had consecutive 10-0 starts since the 1973-74 seasons, and the first time in Coach Nick Saban's career that he has had consecutive ten-win seasons.

Saturday, November 07, 2009

SEC in Review: Week Nine

The SEC season is three-fourths over and winding down. The title game participants have already been decided. Let's review my preseason predictions, and where we stand in the best conference in college football.

1. Ole Miss will be good this year, and perhaps beat a team they shouldn't, but they will not go to the SEC Championship Game.


Ole Miss has turned out to be a pretty average team. They could still surprise me, by winning against Tennessee and/or LSU, but I honestly doubt it.

2. Vanderbilt will return to a bowl game.

No. Vanderbilt has regressed considerably.

3. Of the three teams with a new coach (Auburn, Mississippi State and Tennessee), State will be the one that performs better than expected.

Early on this looked like Auburn running away, but the Tigers (7-3) have fallen back to earth. Tennessee (4-4) has played well recently, but has dropped three winnable games. Mississippi State is 4-5 and has improved along the way while facing a brutal schedule. If State could pull out wins against Arkansas and Ole Miss and get a bowl bid, then i will be totally vindicated.

4. Les Miles (LSU) will be on the coaching hot seat by the end of the year.

Not likely. LSU has improved over last year, especially defensively. Their two losses have come to Florida and Alabama, and they could legitimately finish 11-2.

5. Florida will beat Tennessee by at least 35 points.

Unfortunately, this didn't happen.

6. Alabama will win the SEC West.

Done.

7. Florida will win the SEC East.

Done.

8. Florida will win the SEC.

This one is still undecided and will be until December 5. Florida hasn't looked incredibly impressive this year, but they do know how to win. If both teams make it to the game undefeated... wow, it's going to be a slugfest.

9. Tim Tebow will win the Heisman Trophy.

If he does it will be based on his body of work rather than this year. Surprisingly, the front-runner appears to be Mark Ingram.

10. The national champion will come from outside the SEC this year.

We won't know this until January, obviously, but with Florida at #1 and Alabama at #3, an SEC representative is relatively likely to make it to Pasadena. I just don't see anyone else knocking the SEC champ off at this point, although Texas is the odds-on favorite to face them.


Other observations:

Alabama - The Tide will play Florida again in the title game for all the marbles, assuming they take care of business the next three weeks. Winning 21 of the last 23 games has probably given the Tide more confidence this time around and Florida looks vulnerable. This could be one for the ages. My prediction: Alabama plays in the BCS National Championship Game

Arkansas - Arkansas has improved as a team over last year, but may have missed an opportunity to take the next step against Ole Miss. Still, the Hogs should make a bowl game. The missing piece for this team is defense. My prediction: PapaJohns.com Bowl

Auburn - Auburn has been streaky this year, winning five in a row, then losing three straight, now winning the last two. Now an 8-4 finish looks achievable, which is quite an accomplishment given the situation Chizik inherited. My prediction: Cotton Bowl

Florida - The Gators have benefited from a weak schedule and honestly, a weak division. Florida is a good team, but are they a great one? The only question remaining for the Gators is whether or not Tebow can will them to another championship. My prediction: Sugar Bowl

Georgia - The Bulldogs are an average team. They could salvage this season by winning out, but it won't be easy. Auburn, Kentucky and Georgia Tech are all capable of beating the 'Dawgs, and the difference between 5-7 and 8-4 is huge for Mark Richt. At the very least, look for defensive coordinator Willie Martinez to get the boot at the end of the season. My prediction: Chick-Fil-A Bowl

Kentucky - Kentucky is a decent team, but not a great one. Next weekend's game at Vandy is their best chance to get bowl-eligible, but a win over either Georgia or Tennessee would cement it. My prediction: Bowl eligible, but nowhere to go.

LSU - LSU has seemed to hit its stride over the last few weeks, despite the setback at Alabama. The offense has gotten steadily better and the defense has kept the Bayou Bengals in every game. After receiving a number of injuries during the 'Bama game, it remains to be seen how the Tigers will be affected. My prediction: Capital One Bowl

Mississippi - Ole Miss has played one good game this year (Arkansas) and three bad ones (South Carolina, Alabama, and Auburn). The Rebs are bowl eligible now at 6-3, but they could conceivably lose the last three on the schedule. Not what Colonel Reb was expecting with the SEC championship hype. I predict that Ole Miss will finish 7-5, and go to the Independence Bowl, which is where they should expect to hang out for a while. My prediction: Independence Bowl

Mississippi State - State has played a tough schedule out of conference (Houston, Georgia Tech) and in, but last week's win against Kentucky could have been a turning point. Expect them to give Alabama all they can handle next weekend. Still, the road to bowl eligibility will be difficult. State will have to pick up wins against both Arkansas and Ole Miss to get there. My prediction: Music City Bowl

South Carolina - South Carolina looked like a player at mid-season, but with two consecutive losses and Florida coming up next week, the Gamecocks look to be on another patented late-season slide. If the 'Cocks lose to the Gators and to Clemson in two weeks, finishing 6-6, don't be surprised to hear for calls for Spurrier to retire (or be fired). How the mighty have fallen. My prediction: Liberty Bowl

Tennessee - The Vols have looked mighty strong since losing to Auburn in early October, and they seem to have finally found out how to play offense in Knoxville. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tennessee finish 8-4. My prediction: Outback Bowl

Vanderbilt - Just horrible, or in other words, back to normal. My prediction: No bowl game

Review: No. 2 Alabama 24, No. 9 LSU 15

Alabama's biggest game of the year (so far) saw the Tide offense break out of a mid-season slump. Amassing 267 yards passing, Greg McElroy had easily his best performance since September, hitting Darius Hanks and Julio Jones for touchdowns. Mark Ingram had another stellar performance as well, gaining 144 yards on 22 carries, over 100 of which came in the second half.

Alabama and LSU played for control of the SEC West, as they have for the last two years, and the game played out as many experts predicted - a close battle for three quarters that the Tide would eventually pull away from. The win sets up an Alabama-Florida matchup in the SEC Championship game on December 5.

My seven points:

1. The monkey is off Greg McElroy's back. Underwhelming statistics and lack of red zone success for McElroy over the last month have led to a lot of questioning from fans and pundits about what is wrong and even some . The source of McElroy's problems has been pretty obvious, as was the source of his success tonight. Pressure. Unlike Ole Miss, South Carolina and Tennessee, LSU was unable to put sustained pressure on McElroy. Therefore he was able to stand in the pocket and make throws. McElroy finished 19-of-34 with two TDs and a pick against a quality defense.

2. Ditto for Julio Jones. Jones has been hampered by injuries all year, and while he still hasn't regained his form from last year, he did turn in the biggest play of the game - a 73-yard touchdown reception that put the Tide ahead for good. Jones wasn't perfect - a dropped pass deep in Alabama territory helped set up the safety LSU got on the next play. But a hundred-yard receiving day can heal many wounds.

3. Mark Ingram for Heisman is looking like more than just talk. Most Alabama fans are unconcerned about Heisman talk. After all, SEC and national championships are within the Tide's reach, and no Alabama player has ever finished higher than third in the Heisman balloting anyway. But Mark Ingram was a tentative midseason favorite to win the Trophy coming into the game, and he soldified his reputation today for playing big in big games, which is one of the most important things that a candidate can do. Notre Dame's Jimmy Clausen probably killed his chances today with a three turnover showing in a loss to Navy. Colt McCoy (Texas) and Tim Tebow (Florida) are both in the race by virtue of leading undefeated teams (as is Ingram) but both quarterbacks are suffering somewhat due to comparisons to their previous seasons. Right now, the Heisman Trophy looks like it is Ingram's to win.

4. SEC Officiating didn't do itself any favors tonight. The big story in SEC football over the past month has been blown calls by officials in critical moments, and the aftermath thereof. Conspiracy theorists have accused the SEC of propping up Florida and Alabama in order to keep them undefeated, and to be fair, bad calls did impact the LSU-Georgia and Florida-Arkansas games. (The Alabama-Tennessee helmet controversy, by contrast, was mostly a creation of CBS color analyst Gary Danielson). Bad calls have always been a part of college football, but there is intense scrutiny on the SEC right now. That's why I wouldn't be surprised to see the Greg McElroy interception no-call become a big topic of conversation this week. The video evidence was not 100% conclusive, but it looked like Patrick Peterson may have gotten his foot down before going out of bounds. Danielson, of course, had already ruled it an interception from his perspective, and disgruntled (read, L-O-S-E-R) fans will probably point to the call as further evidence that the SEC helped Alabama win.

5. Strength and conditioning appeared to be a huge advantage for Alabama in this game. It seemed to me that as the game went along, LSU seemed to have an injured player on the turf virtually every other play. One lineman, running back, quarterback, cornerback, etc. after another went down for the Tigers while I only remember one player for Alabama going out of the game at all (Arenas) and he made it back in a few plays later. It's a credit LSU's talent level that they were able to stay in the game with so many players leaving the field, but it did seem a little odd to me that the injuries seemed to be so weighted to their side. Flukey injuries can happen to anyone, but a 8- or 10-1 injury margin is hugely significant in a close game, and may point to a difference between the conditioning of the two teams.

6. Leigh Tiffin is the all-time leading scorer for Alabama. Tiffin has not only recovered completely from being the goat for Alabama's loss to Arkansas in 2006 (he missed two field goals and an extra point in overtime), but has become perhaps the best kicker in the country and the Crimson Tide's all-time leading scorer. Tiffin hit three field goals and an extra point to stand alone above three other legendary Tide kickers - Philip Doyle, Michael Proctor, and his father, Van Tiffin. If Alabama is to reach its championship dreams, Tiffin will continue to play a critical part.

7. Mississippi State won't be a cakewalk. State is in a perfect position to spoil the party for Alabama next week in Starkville. The Bulldogs have improved steadily throughout the year, and while the talent is still thin, overconfidence can be fatal to the Tide's hopes. Just ask anyone on the 1980 Alabama team, who went into Starkville ranked number 1, riding a 28-game winning streak and heavily favored over the unranked Bulldogs. State went on to win that day 6-3, causing a fumble on what would might have been Alabama's go-ahead touchdown play. Saban is not going to take any opponent lightly. Let's hope the team follows his lead.