Sunday, November 04, 2012

SEC Football Week Ten: The Rundown

Week Ten in the Southeastern Conference saw the third Alabama-LSU matchup within the last 12 months, and this one was the best game of the three.  A team that was undefeated a week ago is now reeling from two straight blowouts.  Three beleaguered teams got much-needed wins, while a fourth received a crushing defeat.  And the division leaders can finally see light at the end of the tunnel.  Let's start the rundown!

1.  Alabama faces its toughest test of the year and comes out on top.

While (1) Alabama went into Saturday's game with (5) LSU in Baton Rouge with a clear advantage on paper, the intangibles all favored LSU.  First, you had the night game atmosphere of Tiger Stadium, where the Tigers were 36-1 under Les Miles going into the game.  You had a team that was embarrassed in the national championship game going into a home game as a 10-point underdog, something that had never happened in Miles' tenure.  You had virtually everyone saying that the Tigers' offense was inferior to Alabama's, and you had an Alabama team that had not needed to play four full quarters of football all year.  LSU played their best game of the year, outgaining the Tide 435 yards to 331, and Tigers quarterback Zach Mettenberger was consistently accurate.  With 1:31 remaining in the game and no timeouts, Alabama trailed LSU 17-14 and needed to go 72 yards to score.  AJ McCarron led a masterful 43-second drive culminating in a 28-yard touchdown pass on a screen play to T. J. Yeldon to preserve the national and SEC championship hopes for the Crimson Tide.

2.  Texas A&M hammers another SEC West opponent.

Fresh off a 63-21 shellacking of Auburn on the road last week, (16) Texas A&M traveled to Starkville to face a Mississippi State team whose confidence was shaken after experiencing their first loss of the season in Tuscaloosa last week.  Unfortunately for the 15th-ranked Bulldogs, the Aggies picked up right where they left off, jumping out to a 24-0 first half lead, the same margin, incidentally, that Alabama had amassed in the first half the week before.  The Bulldogs were unable to get up off the mat, falling 38-13.  It is evident that MSU is now paying the dues on its lightweight early schedule, as 7-0 is now 7-2, with a trip to Baton Rouge on the horizon.  Johnny Manziel, the SEC's leading rusher and the Aggies' superstar freshman quarterback threw 30 completions on 36 passes for 311 yards and ran for two touchdowns, and A&M is still mathematically in contention for the SEC West in November.  That's a remarkable achievement for a first-year team (ask Missouri) and Aggies are loving their new QB, new coach, and new conference.

3.  Everyone who needs a win, step forward.  Not so fast, Kentucky.

There are four head coaches in the SEC whose jobs are in serious jeopardy, and while each of them arguably are past the point of no return, each team had an opportunity Saturday to turn their fortunes around, however fleetingly.  Auburn doubled its win total for the season with a 42-7 victory over New Mexico State, and had its best offensive performance of the year with a new quarterback under center.  Forget that the NMSU Aggies are 1-8 and in last place in the WAC, which won't even exist after this season.  Arkansas struggled to put Tulsa away, scoring a late touchdown to eke out a 19-15 win.  The Golden Hurricane is a good Conference-USA team, but the Razorbacks face three straight ranked SEC opponents to close the season, so the fans should savor this one.  Tennessee scored 55 points at home against Troy.  Unfortunately, the Vols gave up 48, and had to score a touchdown with 1:25 left in the fourth to seal the win.  While none of these wins will do much to preserve the jobs of Gene Chizik, John L. Smith or Derek Dooley, at least they didn't lose any more ground - like, say, Joker Phillips.  Kentucky faced Vanderbilt, which may well have been the toughest opponent of the four, and laid an egg, succumbing to the Commodores by a margin of 40-0.

4.  SEC Championship Game matchup is all but certain.

While neither team will be able to clinch their respective divisions until next week, both Alabama and Georgia jumped arguably their most difficult remaining hurdles on Saturday.  The Bulldogs' 37-10 win at home over Ole Miss keeps them a game ahead of Florida with only 2-7 Auburn remaining on their schedule in SEC play.  Alabama has both Texas A&M and Auburn left to play in the conference, but the victory over LSU means that 'Bama would have to lose both games to miss out on a trip to Atlanta.  The teams were originally supposed to play each other in the regular season this year, but the addition of two teams to the SEC forced major changes to the 2012 schedule.  Much was made in the off-season about Georgia avoiding what were perceived to be the major powers in the West for the second year in a row, since the Bulldogs didn't have to play Alabama, LSU or Arkansas.  However, the East turned out to be much stronger than anticipated, and while Georgia ran an easier gauntlet than either Florida or South Carolina, the Bulldogs did what they had to do to return to the title game for the second straight year.  There has been less talk about Alabama's path to Atlanta, although the Crimson Tide has also been aided by a schedule missing the top three teams in the SEC East.  Alabama and Georgia have never played each other in the SEC Championship Game, and the last meeting between the two teams was in the 2008 "Blackout Game," won 41-30 by the Tide.  Alabama leads the all-time series 36-25-4.

5.  The Good

(1) Alabama 21, (5) LSU 17

LSU dominated this game statistically.  The Tigers had more first downs than Alabama (22-18), didn't turn the ball over ('Bama fumbled twice), and converted 50% of their third downs (10 of 20) while the Tide struggled (1 of 9 for 11%).  Mettenberger threw for nearly 300 yards.  Jeremy Hill ran for 107 and a touchdown.  The Tide hadn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in two years.  While Les Miles made a few head-scratching decisions that looked poor in hindsight, he and his team threw everything they had at Alabama, clearly benefiting from an extra week of preparation and a determination to take more risks than in the last meeting in New Orleans.  Despite all of that, 'Bama did something that it hadn't had to do all season - something that all championship teams have to do - find a way to win.  The defending national champs were outplayed in the entire second half, but with the game on the line the Crimson Tide broke the hearts of the Bayou Bengals and salvaged the season.

(16) Texas A&M 38, (15) Mississippi State 13

The Aggies have won all five of their road games this season, and they ran the Bulldogs off the field in impressive fashion.  If anything, this game wasn't as close as the score indicates, as A&M outgained the Bulldogs by nearly 400 yards and amassed 21 more first downs.  Yikes.  Something tells me we have seen the last of those all-white "Snow Bowl" uniforms from Mississippi State.  Texas A&M, on the other hand, might want to keep those new black duds handy.

(6) Georgia 37, Ole Miss 10

Georgia spotted the Rebels the first ten points, obviously suffering a bit of a hangover after last week's big win over Florida, but the Bulldogs scored two second quarter touchdowns on great plays by quarterback Aaron Murray and went on to blank Ole Miss the rest of the way.  Georgia outgained the Rebels by 299 yards of offense and Murray threw four touchdowns with no interceptions on the day.

Vanderbilt 40, Kentucky 0

The Commodores exploded for 20 second-quarter points, scoring touchdowns on four of its five first half drives in the worst defeat of Kentucky by Vandy since 1916.  The Commodores are one win away from bowl eligibility with games remaining against Ole Miss, Tennessee and Wake Forest.  It is only sporting to pull for the 'Dores to make it to what would be only their six bowl appearance of all time (the next-closest conference teams, MSU and Kentucky, both currently have 15).

Auburn 42, New Mexico State 7

It would be a mistake to think that a win Saturday changes anything significant on the Plains, but at this point Auburn fans will take any success they can get.  The Tigers had two rushers over 100 yards, and Jonathan Wallace was solid in his first start, passing for 164 yards and a touchdown.

6.  The Bad

Tennessee 55, Troy 48

Tennessee's Pyrrhic victory over Troy saw the Trojans amass 721 yards of offense, take the lead three times, and force the Vols to score two touchdowns in the last three minutes to secure the win.  Keep in mind Troy lost to lowly Florida Atlantic last week.  I'm starting to wonder if Nick Saban actually sent Sal Sunseri to Tennessee as a double agent to destroy the Volunteers' defense.  Well played, Coach.

7.  The Ugly

(7) Florida 14, Missouri 7

The Gators took last week's loss to Georgia hard.  The out-manned Missouri squad put up a valiant effort in the Swamp, but the disinterested Gators finally managed to salt away the win.  Florida needed four interceptions, including one in the end zone with five seconds remaining on the clock, to put away the Tigers and keep themselves alive for a BCS bowl and an outside shot at the SEC title game. 


Arkansas 19, Tulsa 15

Although Tulsa had only lost one game coming in to Fayetteville, the Golden Hurricane has played a pretty atrocious set of teams.  The Razorbacks jumped out to an early 10-0 lead, but sleepwalked through the next two quarters.  Midway through the third, Tulsa kicked a field goal to go up 15-13.  Arkansas scored soon after to retake a four-point lead, but missed the two-point conversion.  Then the Razorbacks missed a field goal and bypassed another attempt for a field goal to go for it on fourth down, which they also failed to convert.  Fortunately, Tulsa was unable to capitalize on their fourth quarter opportunities, and Arkansas escaped with an ugly win.

8.  Games to Watch in Week Eleven

Texas A&M (7-2) at Alabama (9-0)

The Aggies face the Crimson Tide for just the fifth time and the first ever in Tuscaloosa.  These two programs have a lot of history together, sharing three coaches - Paul W. "Bear" Bryant, Gene Stallings, and Dennis Franchione - although both teams probably want to forget that last one.  Still, this A&M squad is focused on the present, not the past, and nothing would cap their inaugural season in the SEC like a win over the top-ranked Crimson Tide.  Alabama will be coming off an emotional road win and facing a completely different type of team than LSU.  'Bama's vaunted defense was exposed in Baton Rouge, and they will need to regroup quickly to keep the Tide's title hopes alive.  I am leaning toward an Alabama win, but I expect this to be a nailbiter.

Mississippi State (7-2) at LSU (7-2)

The Bulldogs have been manhandled the last two weeks, and LSU has proven to be on par with the two teams that did the manhandling.  I would not expect Mississippi State to have much of a chance, but last night's devastating loss could carry over into next week if the Tigers let it.  I expect a sloppy game and an LSU win.

Georgia (8-1) at Auburn (2-7)

The South's Oldest Rivalry has seen better games.  Georgia needs this win to go to Atlanta, while Auburn is only playing for pride and a chance to ruin the Bulldogs' title run.  The Tigers won't win, but I think that they will keep it closer than expected.

South Carolina (7-2) at Arkansas (4-5)

The Gamecocks have had a week to recover from the devastating injury to Marcus Lattimore, and I expect it to bring the team together.  Arkansas's chance at a bowl is on the line, but I predicted South Carolina to win this game in the preseason when the Razorbacks were still expected to be a top 10 team, and nothing I've seen this season makes me think that they can pull off the upset.

Vanderbilt (5-4) at Ole Miss (5-4)

While this is certainly not a marquee game, both teams are looking for bowl eligibility, and this has become a fairly big rivalry for both schools since the 1970s.  Vandy has won five of the last seven, but I give the edge to the Rebels.

Missouri (4-5) at Tennessee (4-5)

Mizzou's first season in the SEC has not turned out like they had hoped.  Tennessee's three-year run under Dooley has been its worst in decades.  Both teams need this win to keep their slim bowl hopes alive, but frankly, the fact that either of them could go to a bowl is an indictment of the current bowl system.  Tennessee doesn't have much defense, but the injury-riddled Tigers won't be able to make them pay for that.  I'm picking the Volunteers to win.


This is shaping up to be one of the most interesting slate of SEC games this season.  Enjoy.

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