An Open Letter to Auburn, Tennessee and Arkansas: Hire a Proven Head Coach

You might wonder why I, as a hardcore Alabama football fan, would write a letter giving advice to three of the Tide's rivals.  Well, first, I have little expectation that anyone of consequence at these schools will read this, so no real danger there.  Secondly though, and this is hard to say, but as much as I love crushing these three programs (average margin of victory by Alabama in 2012 against these three teams was 44 points), the only exciting rivalry Alabama has right now is with LSU, and that's a bit of a shame.

At one time, Tennessee and Auburn were games that Alabama fans anticipated all year - a measuring stick against which success or failure for a season was judged.  Former Tennessee coach General Robert Neyland famously said, "You never know what a football player is made of until he plays Alabama."  Among SEC teams, not counting the two new members, Auburn and Tennessee have the closest winning percentage against Alabama.  Alabama has beaten Auburn in 55.2% of its matchups, while Tennessee sits at 55.9%.  Among the old SEC, only these two teams and Georgia have beaten Alabama more than 40% of the time that they have played.  Arkansas, although its history against Alabama has largely taken place since the Razorbacks joined the SEC in 1992, has a respectable 8-13 record against the Tide, which is second place in winning percentage among SEC West opponents (not counting newbie Texas A&M, which is 3-2).  Alabama has played Tennessee 94 times, more than any other opponent but Mississippi State.  And even though Alabama and Auburn didn't play each other for 40 years, stemming from a minor dispute, the Tide and Tigers have still played 77 times.  That's tied for fourth among Alabama opponents.

My point is that Alabama's success in many ways is bound up with the teams that they call their rivals, and years of terrible or even mediocre play by those rivals serves to tarnish the rivalry.  I often cringe when I hear Bama fans say that they want Auburn to win every game except against Alabama.  I don't.  I (perhaps irrationally) hate Auburn.  I hate their colors.  I hate their traditions.  I think Auburn's trees are stupid, their toilet paper rolling is stupider and their fans are the stupidest of all.  But I recognized last week that beating them 49-0, while satisfying, lacked any real punch.  Every Auburn fan I know knew that they were going to get killed.  Some of them ignored the game completely.  As much as I hated losing to them in 2010 by one point against *** Newton, I would have enjoyed winning that one and ruining their dream season a lot more than I did this year's contest.  So, that being said, I have some advice for the administrations of Auburn, Tennessee, and Arkansas.  Hire a proven head coach.

As almost any college football fan can tell you, Alabama fans speak with experience on this front.  Our greatest coach of all time, the legendary Paul William Bryant, was a Bama alum and championship winner as a player.  But Bryant was also an experienced winner when he was hired to helm the Tide in 1958.  Bryant won an SEC championship at Kentucky, for Pete's sake, the only outright title the Wildcats have ever won, and turned Texas A&M into a Southwest Conference champion before he came to Alabama to become the Greatest of All Time.  After Bryant, Alabama ran through nine different head coaches in 25 years, which incidentally was the same amount of time Bryant coached at Alabama.  Do you realize that Nick Saban, the supposed mercenary head coach, has been at Alabama longer than any other head coach since Bryant, save one?  Saban is only one year away from equalling Gene Stallings' tenure at Alabama.  What did Alabama learn during those (largely) fallow years?

Among those nine coaches, the people Alabama hired fell into three categories: proven head coach (one with a winning record and championship experience), unproven head coach (one with a losing/mediocre record), and former coordinator (little or no head coaching experience).

Proven Head Coach - Dennis Franchione (138-65-2 at Southwestern/Pittsburgh State/SW Texas State/New Mexico/TCU, nine conference championships); Nick Saban (91-42-1 at Toledo/Michigan State/LSU, three division championships, three conference championships, one national championship; 15-17 at Miami Dolphins)

Unproven Head Coach - Ray Perkins (23-34 at NY Giants); Bill Curry (31-43-4 at Georgia Tech); Gene Stallings (27-45-1 at Texas A&M; 23-34-1 at St. Louis/Phoenix Cardinals); Mike Price (129-122 at Weber State/Washington State)

Former Coordinator - Mike Dubose, Mike Shula, Joe Kines (interim)

As you can see from these breakdowns, Alabama only hired two proven head coaches in the years after Bryant retired.  Everyone knows about Saban - the greatest college football coach of this era.  He had three conference championships and a national title before he came to Alabama, and he has won two more of each since arriving, with a third national championship potentially looming.  Franchione was also a proven commodity, winning nine conference championships before coaching the Tide.  Franchione was successful in his two seasons at Alabama, but NCAA probation scared him off to coach elsewhere.

Among the unproven head coaches, Stallings turned out to be the best of those - winning a national title and 70 games in seven years.  Perkins and Curry are generally regarded as failures, although both finished with winning records.  Price was an unmitigated disaster who never even coached a game for the Tide, unless you count A-Day.  And the coordinators?  The kindest way to put it is that they weren't ready for one of the biggest stages in college football.

So?  Why should Auburn, Arkansas and Tennessee learn from Alabama's head coaching misfires?  Well, if that isn't enough of an example for you, take a look at the coaches in the SEC.

First, among the four coaches that were fired at the conclusion of the 2012 season, see if you spot a common pattern:

• Gene Chizik (Auburn) - former defensive coordinator, 5-19 as head coach of Iowa State
• John L. Smith (Arkansas) - interim, former special teams coach
• Joker Phillips (Kentucky) - former offensive coordinator
• Derek Dooley (Tennessee) - 17-20 as head coach of Louisiana Tech

Of course, all of these coaches were either unproven head coaches or coordinators.  What about the other current coaches in the SEC?  Let's start with the teams that are currently ranked in the BCS top ten.

• Nick Saban (Alabama) - proven head coach - (62-13 at Alabama, 2 SEC, 2 NC)
• Will Muschamp (Florida) - former defensive coordinator - (18-7 at Florida)
• Mark Richt (Georgia) - former offensive coordinator - (117-40 at Georgia, 2 SEC)
• Les Miles (LSU) - proven head coach (85-20 at LSU, 2 SEC, 1 NC)*
• Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M) - proven head coach - (10-2 at Texas A&M)
• Steve Spurrier (South Carolina) - proven head coach - (65-37 at USC)

Richt and Muschamp are the only coaches here that were not proven commodities when hired.  Richt has clearly been successful.  It's too early to conclude anything about Muschamp at this point, although he looks better now than he did a year ago.

As for the rest?

• Hugh Freeze (Ole Miss) - proven head coach - (6-6 at Ole Miss)
• Dan Mullen (Miss. State) - former offensive coordinator - (29-21 at MSU)
• Gary Pinkel (Missouri) - proven head coach (90-61 at Mizzou)
• James Franklin (Vanderbilt) - former offensive coordinator - (14-11 at Vandy)

Freeze and Franklin are too new to really pronounce judgment, but Mullen may have already hit his ceiling.  Pinkel has taken Missouri to new heights in the Big XII, although it remains to be seen whether he can win big in the SEC.

All this data shows us that there is no perfect way to hire a head coach.  There have been successful coaches in this league that have come from all different levels.  Tomorrow's great head coach might truly be today's offensive coordinator, but with each choice there is a degree of risk.  Auburn, Tennessee, and Arkansas are big-name programs in the most difficult conference in college football.  The fan interest, media scrutiny and cost of failure are as high in this league as they are anywhere in the country, especially for the top-tier programs.  While a perennial bottom-dweller like Kentucky can take a risk on a up-and-coming coordinator like Mark Stoops, two or three years of on-the-job training are not an option for a program that hopes to compete against those six guys in the top ten I mentioned previously.  Furthermore, all three programs have wealthy boosters who can help pony up to get a successful coach into the door.

A head coach with a proven record of success is going to be successful at an SEC school.  Most likely, he has been doing more with less somewhere else.  Take Urban Meyer for example.  A guy who can turn around a losing program at Bowling Green and go 17-6 in two seasons might be pretty good, right?  Then he went on to lead Utah to a BCS bowl and an undefeated season.  His success at Florida (2 SEC and 2 NC) was fairly easy to predict, and he has already led Ohio State to an 12-0 finish in 2012.  While few will attain Meyer's level of success, there are plenty of experienced winners out there that could do even more with the resources of an SEC program.

While I would never presume to tell the presidents and ADs at these institutions of higher learning how to do their jobs, I would give them this one recommendation: find a head coach with a record of success, even if it's with a lower tier school.  Steer clear of an unproven one-hit wonder or worse, a coordinator with no experience as a head coach.  Your job may depend on it.



*Miles is debatable as a proven head coach before LSU, but he had a winning record at Oklahoma State and turned around a losing program, taking them to three straight bowls.

Bama Wins 23rd SEC Title, Looks Ahead to Notre Dame

Alabama escaped the Georgia Dome Saturday with a 32-28 win over the Georgia Bulldogs to win the team's 23rd SEC Championship.  The Crimson Tide scored the winning touchdown on a 45-yard pass from AJ McCarron to Amari Cooper with 3:15 remaining in the fourth quarter.  The Bulldogs drove to the eight in the final seconds with a chance to win, but a tipped pass was diverted from the intended receiver, instead going to Chris Conley, who came down with the ball at the five yard line as time expired.  The second-ranked Crimson Tide will go on to play number-one Notre Dame in the BCS Championship Game in Miami, while Georgia will, unfortunately, be relegated to a second-tier bowl, possibly the Capital One or the Cotton.

1.  Tide Wins by Going Back to Basics.

The unanimous opinion of Alabama fans following the Texas A&M game was that the Tide largely abandoned the run game in the loss to the Aggies.  While that may not have been entirely true, offensive coordinator Doug Nussmeier's playcalling in the red zone late against A&M seemed to forego running the ball for the pass.  Early success against the Bulldogs rushing the ball, as well as significant pressure from the UGA defense on passing downs, led the Tide to rely heavily on the running game Saturday.  Alabama set  at least two running records in the game, rushing for 350 yards as a team (most in SECCG history), and having two backs rush for over 100 yards.  Eddie Lacy, who won the game's MVP trophy, had 181 yards on 20 carries - an amazing 9.1 yard per carry average.  Lacy had two touchdowns, including a 41-yard effort that was a sight to behold.  Freshman sensation T. J. Yeldon carried 25 times for 153 yards, and also had a touchdown run.  The Tide's success running the ball led to the team's most unbalanced offensive effort of the season - 51 rushing attempts versus only 21 passes.  The game-winning pass actually came about as a result of this effort, as Georgia had gone to an eight man front with man-to-man coverage on the outside receivers in an effort to stop the run.  McCarron executed a play-action pass to perfection and hit Amari Cooper in stride to take the final lead of the game.

2.  Georgia Proved Ready for the Big Game.

Much was made in the lead up to this game of the fact that Georgia, under head coach Mark Richt, has had a tendency to underperform in big games.  In addition, the knock on Bulldog quarterback Aaron Murray, who recently became the first signal caller in SEC history to throw for 3000+ yards in three straight seasons, has been that he has dominated weaker opponents, but played his worst in big games.  I personally felt that, despite the loss, Georgia had its best big-game performance since the 2008 Sugar Bowl win over Hawaii.  First, keep in mind that the Bulldogs were one play away from the win in the biggest game of Richt's career.  Murray completed 18 of 33 passes for 265 yards - a 55% rate of completion.  Murray was able to direct the Bulldogs up and down the field on the nation's top defense, and threw accurately in pressure situations.  Murray wasn't error-free, by any means, but he clearly performed well enough to win.  Even the alleged poor clock management at the end of the game was arguably better than Alabama's management of the clock at the end of the first half.  All in all, Georgia played its heart out and came up short.  That should be a welcome sight to Bulldogs fans who had been disappointed with previous efforts in marquee games.

3.  Nick Saban is the Greatest College Football Coach of this Era.

I made a point in one of last week's pieces that Alabama coach Nick Saban, who has won 67 of his 80 games at Alabama on the field (officially, his record is 62-13, as Alabama had to vacate five wins in 2007), has outperformed Bear Bryant in his career so far at Alabama.  Bryant won a record six national championships, coached 13 conference championship teams (plus two others before Alabama), and won a then-record 323 games.  None of those marks are within Saban's reach.  However, Saban has won 83.8% of his actual games at Alabama, and officially he has won 82.7%.  Both marks exceed the 82.4% winning percentage that Bryant had at Alabama.  Saban has also now won two national titles,with a third win one game away, and two conference titles - all in six seasons at the helm.  He is the only coach in the BCS era to win the national title at two different schools, the only one to win it three times, and the only one to get his teams into the game four times.  Unlike Bryant, he has done this in an era with scholarship limitations and NCAA scrutiny at an all-time high.  I'm not arguing that Saban is better than Bryant, and it might even be a lively debate whether or not Saban is the second-best coach in Alabama history (although I think he edges out both Frank Thomas and Wallace Wade at this point, and closes the book with a win over Notre Dame).  However, he is indisputably the best college football coach in this era.  The fact that Alabama's then-record $4 million-a-year contract offer to woo Saban from the Miami Dolphins in 2007 was heavily criticized now seems laughable.  Even at nearly six million dollars a year at this point, Saban is worth every penny and then some.  Alabama is enjoying another historic high point, and fans should savor every moment.

4.  Notre Dame versus Alabama BCS Will Be Epic

Let's set aside for a moment the game itself.  There will be plenty of time to analyze the personnel, coaches, and position matchups in the weeks leading up to January 7th.  I just want to talk about the historic significance of the game.  On the one hand, you have top-ranked Notre Dame - currently number 1 in the nation in overall winning percentage and fourth nationally in all-time wins (865-301-41).  The Fighting Irish have won 13 recognized national championships (although the program only claims 11) out of 23 total, and have played in 31 bowl games.  The Irish have seven Heisman winners and 96 consensus All-Americans, both NCAA records.  On the other hand you have Alabama.  The Crimson Tide is currently seventh in the nation in overall winning percentage and in all-time wins (826-321-43).  Alabama has won 13 recognized national titles (claiming 14) out of 31 total, and have played in 58 bowl games, winning 33, both of which are NCAA records.  Bama has one Heisman winner and 47 consensus All-Americans.

The two teams are arguably the two greatest programs in college football history, with large, loyal fan bases.  Notre Dame supposedly has the largest following in the nation, but has been largely absent from the national stage competitively since the late 1990s.  Alabama conversely is in the midst of the program's third major "golden age," playing for its third national title in four years, and the Southeastern Conference is having an unprecedented title run.  The media and public attention for this game will be astronomical, and ESPN is already rubbing its collective hands together at the projected ratings.  The fact that these teams have won the most recognized championships among FBS schools and have some previous championship game history (which frankly is completely in Notre Dame's favor) just makes the pairing more attractive to fans of the two teams.  Notre Dame has a 5-1 record against Alabama, and I am really looking forward to an opportunity to even that up a little.  Roll Tide!

Why Does the SEC Win So Many National Championships?

While there have been many SEC Championship Games where the national championship was on the line as well as the SEC title, dating all the way back to the first one 20 years ago, for three of the last five years it has served as a national championship semifinal - win and you're in.  While credit must be given to former SEC Commissioner Roy Kramer for adding Arkansas and South Carolina to the conference, initiating the divisional split, and creating the SEC Championship Game, one must also remember that the title game itself isn't what has made the SEC the premier conference in America.  In contrast to the SEC Game, the Big XII Championship Game was viewed by its conference as a failure during its 15-year run, largely because the Big XII game took as many national contenders out of the title game as it helped put in.

The SEC Championship Game winner has gone on to win the national championship nine times in its 20-year history, while Alabama won an additional title last year without playing in the game.  Looking back on that 20-year period though, the SEC has won seven of the last nine national titles, which means that in the previous 13 years, the conference only won three.  Three titles in thirteen years is nothing to sneeze at - I assure you that any other conference would be ecstatic to achieve that number at this point.  So what accounts for the unbelievable run over the last nine years?  Is there any chance that things will change?

While it is inevitable that a team outside the SEC will eventually win the title again, I think that there are a few factors that will continue to favor the SEC in the future, and account for the epic run of late.  First, the SEC Championship Game is a factor.  In the old SEC system (before the title game was created), Alabama, Georgia and Florida would all tie for the 2012 conference championship.  Alabama, by virtue of the highest ranking in the BCS, would likely get a berth in the national chmapionship game, but it would be a controversial one, since the Tide did not play either Georgia or Florida in the regular season.  The SEC title game ensures that the best teams in both divisions play each other, which adds legitimacy to the SEC champion.

The second factor is the affiliation that the SEC has with CBS and ESPN.  While it has been eclipsed subsequently, the 2008 contract that the SEC signed with ESPN was the largest conference television deal at that point, a $2 billion agreement that has allowed every conference game of any significance at all to appear on television.  Other major conferences have similar arrangements, but only the Big Ten currently makes more revenue per school (as a result of the Big Ten Network), and a true SEC Network is in the works.  In addition, unlike some conferences, the SEC shares revenue equally among its members, so that traditional powers aren't favored financially by the conference office or the television partners.

The third factor is coaching.  While the conference has always had great coaches, Alabama's hiring of Nick Saban in 2007 set a new bar for coaching salaries and expectations.  Saban is still the highest-paid coach in the country, but until a few minutes ago, the conference had four of the ten most highly-compensated coaches in the nation (Gene Chizik was just sent out to pasture).  With those high salaries come high expectations.  Four SEC teams are looking for coaches today, while four others have coaches in their first or second year.  The tendency two or three decades ago in the SEC was largely to hire offensive or defensive coordinators with SEC experience to be head coaches, but head coaching, championship or recruiting experience has trended upward while SEC experience has diminished.  The need to "hit a home run" with each coaching hire and the impatience with losing means that only two coaches (Mark Richt and Gary Pinkel) in the conference have been with their team more than a decade, and Missouri's only been an SEC team for six months.

The fourth factor is talent.  Five of the top ten states in overall number of football recruits are within the SEC footprint (1-Texas, 2-Florida, 4-Georgia, 7-Alabama, and 8-Louisiana), with another four in the top 20, and that's not to mention other Southern and near-Southern states like North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland also in the top 20.  Football recruits generally stay close enough to home for their parents to be able to see them play, and the fact is that, while these numbers fluctuate somewhat, there are as many Divison I recruits in the 2013 class in the eleven states of the SEC as there are in the other 40 (including D.C.).  Growth trends in the South would indicate that those numbers are only going to become more pronounced.

Finally, and this is a hard thing to put a finger on, but I'm going to try, the fifth factor is tradition.  Tradition can be defined in a number of different ways, but specifically, I am referring to a tradition of winning.  It may not surprise you, but over the 14 years of the BCS, eleven different teams have won a national title.  That would seem to indicate that the championship is relatively democratic.  However, each of those eleven teams is ranked in the top 20 in all-time winning percentage (the lowest-ranked team, Auburn, is 18th).  Even if you go back to the first year of the SEC title game, the number of different winners only increases to thirteen, and the two additional teams are also top 20 powers.  In fact, since 1970, only five teams have won the national title that are not in the top 20 in all-time winning percentage: Colorado and Georgia Tech in 1990, BYU in 1984, Clemson in 1981 and Pittsburgh in 1976.  All of these teams, by the way, are in the top 40.  That's not going to change this year either, since Notre Dame, Alabama and Georgia are all in the top 15.  Look at the national title winners since 1992, the first year of the SEC Championship Game:

Alabama, Florida, Nebraska - 3 titles
Florida State, LSU, USC - 2 titles
Auburn, Miami, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas - 1 title

Now conference affiliations have changed for Nebraska and Miami since they won titles, but let's look at the number of teams per conference, using today's affiliations, that have won the national title.

SEC - Five teams
Big Ten - Three teams
ACC and Big XII - Two teams
Pac-12 - One team

So, five different SEC teams have won the national title since 1992.  That number is still five if you just count from the beginning of the BCS era (1998).

SEC - Five teams
Big XII - Two teams
ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12 - One team

So what's my point?  The Southeastern Conference has six teams in the top 20 in all-time winning percentage, more than any other conference.  Georgia is the only one of those teams that hasn't won the title in the last 20 years.  The Big Ten is the next closest conference with four, although two of those were added within the last two decades.  No other conference has more than two.  Since we've already established that traditional powers, by and large, win national championships, it stands to reason that having more traditional powers means winning more championships.  Why do traditional powers have such an advantage?  That could probably be the basis of a more serious study, but I think elements like money, facilities, fan support and expectations, name recognition, media focus, and recruiting all play a part.  However, there can be no argument that the national championship club is an exclusive one.

So, while the SEC's winning streak won't last forever, all the factors I've outlined give the SEC a competitive advantage that the other conferences on the whole can't duplicate. 

My Preseason Follow-Up

I predicted the record and finish of each football team in the Southeastern Conference back in the 2012 preseason.  Let's see how I did...

SEC WEST

ALABAMA
Prediction: 14-0, National, SEC, and West Division Champion
Actual: 11-1, SEC West Division Champion, with SEC and National Championship in reach
Grade: A, although that could be an A+ if the Tide wins out

It didn't take a genius to pick Alabama to attain the SEC title for 2012, and contend for the national title.  While the jury is still out on how close I was to the final result, this looks pretty good so far.

ARKANSAS
Prediction: 10-3, 3rd in SEC West
Actual: 4-8, 6th in SEC West
Grade: D

Obviously, I missed the boat on Arkansas this year, underestimating the effect of the loss of Bobby Petrino on the Razorbacks' season.  I take comfort in the fact that I wasn't the only one, and that at least I didn't call for a conference or national championship.

AUBURN
Prediction: 9-4, 4th in SEC West
Actual: 3-9, 7th in SEC West
Grade: F

The only thing worse than my prediction for the Tigers was their actual season.

LSU
Prediction: 12-1, 2nd in SEC West
Actual: 10-2, Tied-2nd in SEC West
Grade: A

LSU had another strong season, but fell short to Alabama, as I predicted that they would.

MISSISSIPPI
Prediction: 3-9, 7th in SEC West
Actual: 6-6, 5th in SEC West
Grade: C-

Ole Miss scratched out a decent first season for new head coach Hugh Freeze, and made significant strides forward from 2011.  This team, with some talent, will be one to watch over the next few years.

MISSISSIPPI STATE
Prediction: 7-6, 6th in SEC West
Actual: 8-4, 4th in SEC West
Grade: C

State was able to capitalize on atrocious teams from Auburn and Arkansas.

TEXAS A&M
Prediction: 8-5, 5th in SEC West
Actual: 10-2, Tied-2nd in SEC West
Grade: C

At midseason, I would've said that my prediction was right on point, but freshman sensation and potential Heisman-winner Johnny Manziel just kept getting better and better, and head coach Kevin Sumlin was an even greater hire than expected.

SEC EAST

FLORIDA
Prediction: 9-4, 3rd in SEC East
Actual: 11-1, Tied-1st in SEC East
Grade: C

Will Muschamp came within one game of playing for the national title, defeated four top-12 teams, and will likely be voted SEC Coach of the Year.  He deserves it, after replacing his offensive coordinator and improving dramatically in year two.

GEORGIAPrediction: 11-2, 2nd in SEC East
Actual: 11-1, Tied-1st in SEC East
Grade: B-

I always knew Georgia was the easy pick to win the East, so my prediction for them to finish second hinged on a loss to South Carolina and another to Florida.  The Bulldogs split the difference, and showed major improvement after falling to the Gamecocks.

KENTUCKY
Prediction: 4-8, 7th in SEC East
Actual: 2-10, 7th in SEC East
Grade: A-

If anything, I gave more credit to Kentucky than they were due in their out-of-conference schedule.  This team has given away all the ground it gained in the Rick Brooks era.

MISSOURI
Prediction: 8-5, 5th in SEC East
Actual: 5-7, 5th in SEC East
Grade: C+

I think Missouri could have competed at a higher level, at least well enough to get to a bowl game, but injuries across the board kept this team at a season-long disadvantage.

SOUTH CAROLINA
Prediction: 12-2, 1st in SEC East
Actual: 10-2, 3rd in SEC East
Grade: C+

The Gamecocks looked like the best team in the conference at midseason, but after a close loss in Baton Rouge, they came apart in Gainesville.

TENNESSEE
Prediction: 9-4, 4th in SEC East
Actual: 5-7, 6th in SEC East
Grade: D

Tennessee did not beat one team as an underdog in Derek Dooley's tenure, while dropping several others that they should have won, which is why he is no longer roaming the sidelines in Knoxville.

VANDERBILT
Prediction: 7-6, 6th in SEC East
Actual: 8-4, 4th in SEC East
Grade: B-

While I predicted that Vandy would make it to a bowl for the second straight year, despite never having achieved that before in its history, the Commodores have already equaled their best season in three decades and have a chance at their first nine-win season since 1915.  No one was bold enough to predict that.

OVERALL GRADE: C+

SEC Championship Game Preview

(3) Georgia vs (2) Alabama

For the second year in a row, the Georgia Bulldogs avoided the top four teams in the SEC West on its way to winning the SEC East.  While the Bulldogs finished 11-1 in the regular season, it split its only two games with teams that are still ranked, losing 35-7 to South Carolina while defeating Florida 17-9.  Alabama, on the other hand, avoided the top four teams in the SEC East on its way to winning the West.  Alabama also finished 11-1 and split its only two games with teams that are still ranked, losing 29-24 to Texas A&M while defeating LSU 21-17.  The Tide and the Bulldogs did have several common opponents though:

Alabama vs.           Team                               Georgia vs.
40-7                        Florida Atlantic (3-8)        56-20
33-14                      Ole Miss (6-6)                 37-10
42-10                      Missouri (5-7)                  41-20
44-13                      Tennessee (5-7)                51-44
49-0                        Auburn (3-9)                    38-0

I don't know if you can tell much except that both teams handled their common opponents pretty easily.  The only real outlier is the Georgia-Tennessee score, but since that game preceded both Georgia's defensive regrouping following the South Carolina loss as well as Tennessee's subsequent meltdown, even that one is easily explained.

Georgia's main weaknesses overall this year have been mainly on the defensive side of the ball, although the Bulldogs have one of the best defenders in the league in Jarvis Jones.  Georgia has had a tendency to turn the ball over and get a lot of penalties, although both of those issues have been diminished a good bit following the Florida game, although that could point more to the inferiority of the competition since then.

Alabama's main weakness is the defensive secondary and the absense of a strong pass rusher, although only LSU and Texas A&M were the only teams that were able to reveal it.  Alabama does not give up many penalties and doesn't turn the ball over much either.

I think Alabama and Georgia match up well against each other and are mirror images of each other in a lot of ways.  Further, the teams haven't played each other since the 2008 "Blackout" Game, and only the coaching staffs and maybe a couple of redshirt seniors here and there took part in that, so there's not a lot of familiarity between the two squads.  I think that Alabama's opponent that was the most like Georgia is LSU.  Aaron Murray is a better quarterback than Zach Mettenberger, and Mettenberger had a career day against Alabama.  If the Tide doesn't find a way to get pressure on Murray, he will pick the secondary apart.    Georgia also has a pair of good running backs, similar to LSU, which will make it harder for the Tide to make them one-dimensional.  Georgia's opponent that was the most like Alabama is probably South Carolina.  Carolina had a decent quarterback in Connor Shaw, but one I would argue that is not quite as good as AJ McCarron.  The actual game against Carolina doesn't really tell us much, however, since the Gamecocks were able to break the game open early with three quick touchdowns, and Georgia was pretty much out of the game by the end of the first quarter.  Marcus Lattimore had over 100 yards against the Bulldogs, but again, the Gamecocks hardly tried to do anything but sit on the lead and run out the clock once they were up 21-0.

All that being said, I believe Alabama has a slightly better team, a significantly better coach, and more experience in high-pressure, high-profile games.  I expect a close contest, and a relatively low-scoring one, along the lines of 24-20, with the Tide coming out on top.

SEC Football Week Thirteen: The Rundown

The last week of the regular season in the Southeastern Conference is colloquially known as "Rivalry Week," but it largely became blowout week, as the favored teams won, handily in most cases, in every matchup.  The stage is set for the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta, and the last bowl eligible team from the conference stepped into place as well.  We'll end the regular season by looking back at this week's games, as well as my preseason predictions to see who exceeded expectations, who underachieved, and where I was just flat out wrong.  Let's start the Rundown!

1.  SEC Dominates the ACC.

Rivalry Week featured four matchups between SEC and ACC teams, and many analysts expected that the ACC could regain some badly needed respect by winning at least two of the marquee games.  The fourth-ranked Florida Gators faced off against tenth-ranked Florida State in Tallahassee.  Everyone from Jimbo Fisher on down talked about how the BCS computers, which hated the 'Noles, were penalizing FSU unfairly for their one-point loss to N.C. State and the fact that the ACC is weak overall.  Well, that talk appeared to be well-founded, as the Seminoles' vaunted defense allowed 37-points to what has been a largely anemic Florida offense.  The twelfth-ranked Gamecocks of South Carolina played a close game against (11) Clemson, also on the road, before pulling away with a 27-17 victory, even without their best two offensive players.  Georgia, ranked third in the BCS, manhandled their rival Yellow Jackets of Georgia Tech 42-10.  And Vanderbilt traveled to Wake Forest and crushed the Demon Deacons 55-21 to win their eighth game of the year.  Following news this week that Maryland, a founding member of the Atlantic Coast Conference, is leaving to seek greener pastures in the Big Ten, this weekend's evidence that the gap between the ACC and the nation's premier conference is as wide as ever has to be unwelcome.

2.  Alabama Finally Clinches the SEC West.

Although the final outcome of the Iron Bowl was largely expected, the Tide clinched the SEC West crown and a spot in the championship game in yesterday's win over Auburn.  The defending national champions were my preseason favorite to win the West, but the media in Hoover this summer predicted that LSU would repeat as division champs.  Congratulations to the Alabama players and coaching staff on a record-setting run.  This Alabama senior class has tied the BCS-era record for wins in a four-year span, going 46-5 over the last four seasons.  In addition, Alabama has set an SEC record for wins over a five-year span, with 58.  In all, on the field, since Alabama hired Nick Saban, the team's record is 65-13, an astonishing 83.33 winning percentage, and the percentage is 89.23 after his first year.  When you keep in mind that Paul "Bear" Bryant's winning percentage at Alabama was 82.4% over his career, it becomes clear that this is a golden era in Crimson Tide football history.  The Tide will have a chance to win its 23rd SEC championship on Saturday with a potential 15th national championship on the line.

3.  Haters Gonna Hate: The SEC is in the Title Game Again.

While Notre Dame's win over USC last night means that we won't see another all-SEC BCS National Championship Game, the winner of the conference championship game in Atlanta is assured of a berth in the title game in Miami.  Even more disconcerting to the rest of the nation is that, if the four-team playoff which will replace the BCS was in place today, there would be a strong case to include at least two SEC teams, and perhaps as many as three by the end of next Saturday.  As it currently stands, either Alabama or Georgia will face the Fighting Irish come January with the opportunity to extend the conference's unprecedented championship streak to seven.  The national media, or at least ESPN, is likely hoping for an Alabama-Notre Dame faceoff given the ratings bonanza that will likely occur if arguably the two greatest college football programs of all time play for a third time in a bowl with the national title on the line.  Georgia, however, has also played Notre Dame once for the national title, and the Bulldogs, unlike the Tide, actually won the game.  Either way, I like the chances of either SEC team against the Irish.

4.  Nine SEC Teams are Bowl Bound.

It won't be clear until next Sunday who is going where, but nine SEC teams are bowl eligible at season's end.  Due to the berth in the title game, Florida will likely take the SEC champion's spot in the Sugar Bowl, while the Capital One, Cotton, Chick-Fil-A Bowls and Outback Bowls will have to select between four two-loss teams, including the conference runner-up, LSU, Texas A&M, and South Carolina.  That could go a number of different ways, depending on who the runner-up turns out to be.  The Music City Bowl and the Liberty Bowl will likely choose between Mississippi State and Vanderbilt, both at 8-4, while the BBVA Compass Bowl gets 6-6 Ole Miss.  The SEC and Big 12 both lead the nation with nine bowl teams.

5.  The Good

(4) Florida 37, (10) Florida State 26

Florida took on the top-ranked and barely-tested Florida State defense and wore them down, scoring 24 points in the fourth quarter to beat the Seminoles into submission.  The Gators also forced five turnovers, four of them from quarterback E. J. Manuel.

(12) South Carolina 27, (11) Clemson 17

The Gamecocks started Dylan Thompson at quarterback for an injured Connor Shaw, and Thompson threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in a career day for the backup.  The Carolina defense bottled up all of Clemson's offensive weapons and Steve Spurrier became the winningest coach in South Carolina history, all with a smug look on his face.

(9) Texas A&M 59, Missouri 29

The matchup between SEC newbies and former Big XII foes was out of reach early as Johnny Manziel made a final statement for the Heisman Trophy.  Manziel broke Cam Newton's SEC record for total offense, surpassing 4600 yards for his freshman season in the blowout.

(3) Georgia 42, Georgia Tech 10

I think it says something about the offense that the Yellow Jackets run that they led the Bulldogs in yardage, first downs, and time of possession by fairly large margins and yet were down 28-3 at halftime and were completely outclassed.  I think that the Paul Johnson triple-option era may be just about over.

Ole Miss 41, Mississippi State 24

Bo Wallace threw for five touchdowns, three to Donte Moncrief, as the Rebels won their first Egg Bowl since 2008.  The Rebels, under new coach Hugh Freeze, have tripled their win total from 2011 and will make it to a bowl for the first time in three years.

Vanderbilt 55, Wake Forest 21

The Commodores won their sixth straight game for the first time since 1955, hammering the homestanding Demon Deacons behind the running of Zac Stacy.  Stacy finished with over 1,000 yards rushing for the second straight season, and became Vandy's first 3,000-yard rusher in school history.

6.  The Bad

(2) Alabama 49, Auburn 0

Auburn failed to show up in Tuscaloosa and Alabama scored 49 points against an array of tackling dummies to wrap up the worst Iron Bowl blowout since the rivalry was renewed in 1948.  Alabama scored touchdowns on its first seven possessions before resting the starters for the championship game next weekend.

Tennessee 37, Kentucky 17

Move along.  Nothing to see here.

7.  The Ugly

(7) LSU 20, Arkansas 13

Have you ever had a wrestling match against a little brother or cousin and pretty much held him off while he struggled and fought without expending any effort until you got tired and decided to go ahead and finish him off?  That pretty much describes this game.  Arkansas outgained LSU by more than 150 yards, but had 12 penalties and turned the ball over twice to bring an ignominious end to the John L. Smith era.

Check out my Preseason Follow-Up to see how I did predicting the 2012 season.
Check out my analysis of Why the SEC Wins So Many National Titles.
And see my Preview of the SEC Championship.

SEC Football Week Twelve: The Rundown

The biggest games in the Southeastern Conference this week took place outside the conference, in Waco, Texas and Eugene, Oregon.  While the chance of a seventh straight national champion from the SEC looked lost just last week, now with just one week of football remaining in the regular season there are two conference teams that seem poised to make their way into the BCS Championship Game (BCSCG) in Miami, and another couple of teams with an outside shot.  This week, we're going to examine the path that each of these teams has before them.  Let's start The Rundown!

1.  Alabama (10-1, BCS #2)

As the defending national champion and top-ranked team for most of the 2012 season, most of the focus has been on how the losses by both Kansas State and Oregon has given the Tide new life in the national championship race.  However, Alabama still has to take care of business against Auburn (3-7) to make it to the SEC championship game, much less the BCS game.  The Tide's biggest win this season was the last-second victory over LSU two weeks ago, while their only loss was last week's 29-24 verdict to Texas A&M.  Assuming a win over Auburn, 'Bama will face Georgia in the title game in Atlanta.  The Bulldogs have looked like a different team since safety Shawn Williams called the defense out for being "soft," and won't be an easy out.  If Alabama wins both games, they will be in the BCSCG no matter what else happens.

2.  Georgia (10-1, BCS #3)

Georgia has slowly worked its way into a great position right behind Alabama.  In addition, the Bulldogs have the added advantage of having received very little national attention after their mid-season 35-7 loss to South Carolina, so it will be easy for the Georgia team to play the Rodney Dangerfield role.  The Bulldogs' biggest win was over Florida, who has a pretty strong resume of its own.  Georgia also has a rivalry game this week, against Georgia Tech (6-5), that it must win to stay in the national title hunt.  Like the Tide, if the Bulldogs win out over the SEC West champion - either Alabama, LSU, or Texas A&M* - they will play in the BCS title game regardless of what any other team does.

3.  Florida (10-1, BCS #4)

Florida has the strongest resume of any one-loss team, having defeated LSU, Texas A&M, and South Carolina, all in the top 12.  However, the Gators have looked pretty mediocre since falling 17-9 to Georgia, although that very possibly could be attributed to a lack of focus after the loss.  Florida also has the toughest remaining game, a rivalry showdown against Florida State (10-1) in Tallahassee.  If the Gators get past the Seminoles, they will still need help to make it to Miami.  A Notre Dame loss to USC next week could pit Florida against either Alabama or Georgia, although a voter backlash against another all-SEC title game could occur.  However, that's where Florida's strong resume would help them in the computer rankings.  Florida could also ease into the game even if Notre Dame won out, if a) Alabama loses to Auburn, then LSU beats Georgia or if b) Georgia loses to Georgia Tech and then beats Alabama.

4.  LSU (9-2, BCS #7)

This is the chaos scenario.  LSU is the highest-ranked team with two losses, but there is still a slim possibility that they could go to Miami.  The Tigers' two losses, to Alabama and Florida, were close contests, which has kept them ranked in the bottom half of the top ten.  What LSU would need is a major clear-out ahead of them. If Alabama somehow lost to Auburn, that puts LSU in the SEC Championship Game, and likely drops Alabama behind them.  If LSU won over the 'Dawgs, that eliminates Georgia.  Florida would probably also have to lose to Florida State.  Then, for good measure, either Notre Dame would need to fall to USC by a lot, Oregon would have to lose to Oregon State, and/or Kansas State probably needs to lose to Texas.  None of those outcomes seem all that unlikely by themselves, but they probably won't ALL happen.  The X factor in this scenario is Florida State.  Voters would likely put Florida State ahead of Florida in the human polls, but the computers hate FSU.  Would a win over Florida boost them enough to overtake LSU?  Hard to say, but fun to think about, isn't it?

5.  The Good

(7) LSU 41, Ole Miss 35

While LSU's defense decided to take a week off, the fact is that this once-great rivalry game was entertaining and in doubt until the final seconds.  Hugh Freeze has done more with less than anyone else in the conference, and LSU should have charged admission to the post-game Les Miles press conference, because it was quite a show.  At the end of the day, Ole Miss's dreams died in Tiger Stadium, and the Bayou Bengals escaped with a hard fought win.

Vanderbilt 41, Tennessee 18

The Commodores smashed the Vols at home for the first time in three decades, and have reached all kinds of historic highs in coach James Franklin's second year.  The real question is whether or not Vandy can hang on to Franklin.  I hear that there's a job opening in Knoxville...

Mississippi State 45, Arkansas 14

Tyler Russell threw four touchdowns as the Bulldogs routed Arkansas, putting a final nail in the coffin of the Razorbacks' bowl hopes.  At least they'll be able to focus on the coaching search in Fayetteville.

6.  The Bad

Syracuse 31, Missouri 27

Missouri missed out on their best chance to get bowl eligible in 2012, giving up 21 points in the fourth quarter to a feisty Syracuse squad and their record-setting quarterback Ryan Nassib.  The Tigers' quarterback James Franklin had his his best showing of the season, but left the game after a hit that rang his bell.  Corbin Berkstresser again filled in for Franklin, and led the team to ten fourth quarter points, but the defense, and particularly the secondary, fell apart late in the game.  The loss broke Mizzou's school-record 18-game winning streak versus nonconference opponents.

7.  The Ugly

SEC versus FCS

For whatever reason, every SEC team still chooses to schedule teams from the FCS division of college football - the division known for many years as I-AA.  While they still count as wins on the schedule, the best that can be said about playing FCS teams is that it may allow a team to build some experience among the second and third team players.  However, generally it provides a lackluster game for the fans, an chance for players to get hurt with absolutely nothing useful on the line, and an opportunity for a cataclysmically embarrassing loss (see, Michigan vs. Appalachian State).  So, while Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia Kentucky, South Carolina, and Texas A&M all won fairly handily over their FCS opponents, in reality any game against an FCS school is an ugly one.

8.  Games to Watch in Week Thirteen

Florida (10-1) at Florida State (10-1)

This is an intense rivalry, and arguably the best game on the slate in week 13.  Florida State has only lost one game, by one point, to a mediocre NC State squad, but they have been all but eliminated from the national title talk due to weak ACC competition.  Florida has exceeded expectations all season, but has looked lethargic since losing Jeff Driskel to an ankle injury.  With pride, a BCS bowl, and a very slim shot at the national title on the line, expect both teams to be ready to make a statement.  I think the Seminoles have more to prove though, and I expect an FSU win.


LSU (9-2) at Arkansas (4-7)

This will probably not be much of a contest, unless the competition is about who has the goofiest coach.  It'll be worth seeing just to catch the pre-, mid-, and post-game interviews with Les Miles and John L. Smith.  LSU by at least 17.

South Carolina (9-2) at Clemson (10-1)

If Florida State has been disrespected for losing one game, the Clemson Tigers seemed to have fallen in a hole after their early loss to Florida State.  Honestly, I had no idea that they had only lost one game, and I follow college football pretty closely, in case you hadn't noticed.  There's no love lost between these two schools or their coaches.  I think this is a tossup game, but I'm leaning South Carolina, mainly due to their defense.

Auburn (3-7) at Alabama (10-1)

Auburn is a 35-point underdog.  Who wouldn't want to see that?

Georgia Tech (6-5) at Georgia (10-1)

It has been many years since this game has had national championship implications, and while Tech is not a great team, their triple option offense is difficult to prepare for in practice.  Still, Georgia has won the last three in a row over the Yellow Jackets, and should handle them easily this time.

Mississippi State (8-3) at Ole Miss (5-6)

Although the Bulldogs have a better record, the Rebels have played a tougher schedule.  State was blown out by Alabama (7-38), Texas A&M (13-38) and LSU (17-37), while Ole Miss played all of those teams better - Alabama (14-33), Texas A&M (27-30), and LSU (35-41).  Historically, this is truly one of the few rivalry games where you can "throw out the record books."  I have therefore convinced myself that Ole Miss, with a chance at bowl eligibility, has more to play for on Saturday and will emerge with the win.

Missouri (5-6) at Texas A&M (9-2)

The SEC's new teams meet up in a Big-XII rematch, but these two programs are going in different directions.  Johnny Manziel needs a big game to solidify his Heisman candidacy, and having watched the Mizzou secondary, I think he gets it.  The Aggies win big.

Kentucky (2-9) at Tennessee (4-7)

Bad News: Neither of these teams has won a conference game.  Good News: Since there are no more ties, one of them has to get a win!


*Texas A&M can only go to Atlanta if both Alabama and LSU lose Saturday.

SEC Football Week Eleven: The Rundown

It took ten weeks for a team to challenge the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide, but week eleven brought us one of the biggest upsets of the 2012 college football season and the likely end of the SEC's string of BCS National Championships.  We also saw the likely end of two head coaches while an eighth conference team became bowl-eligible.  Let's start the rundown.

1.  The End of the Streak?

Texas A&M's 29-24 victory over Alabama in Tuscaloosa Saturday was a huge win for the Aggies, coming as it did in the team's inaugural season in the Southeastern Conference, on the road, against the number one team and premier program in the league.  However, the victory likely will bring an end to the SEC's streak of six BCS national championships (Florida in 2006 and 2008, LSU in 2007, Alabama in 2009 and 2011, and Auburn in 2010).  Alabama and Georgia are both ranked in the top five win one loss, but the top three teams are all undefeated, and it will take a loss of at least one, but probably two, of those those teams for either of them to make it to Miami.  Kansas State will likely be the top-ranked team in the BCS at the end of the day today, with Baylor and (17) Texas remaining on their schedule.  Oregon has the toughest path remaining, with (14) Stanford and (11) Oregon State as well as the Pac-12 championship against either (19) USC or (17) UCLA if they win out.  Notre Dame faces Wake Forest and (19) USC.  Georgia is already a lock for the SEC Championship Game, having finished 7-1 in the SEC.  Alabama will have to beat Auburn in two weeks to meet the Bulldogs in Atlanta.

2.  Swan Songs

It's debatable whether Gene Chizik could have saved his job after the loss to Ole Miss, but there was some speculation that the Auburn coach might earn some reprieve if he could pull off miracle upsets of top rivals Georgia and Alabama.  Saturday's 38-0 loss to the Bulldogs has almost certainly put an end to all further hope of Chizik salvaging his post.  The Tigers are 0-7 in the conference and will be the first team to finish seventh in the SEC West regardless of what happens the rest of the way.  The scuttlebutt on Tennessee coach Derek Dooley seemed less certain leading up to the game with Missouri this weekend.  Dooley was still in a position to win out, making it to a bowl.  With a victory, Dooley could attain eight wins and keep Tennessee out of the unenviable position of paying off three unemployed coaches (Dooley would join former football coach Phil Fulmer and basketball head Bruce Pearl) while trying to lure a new one.  Missouri had other plans though, defeating the Volunteers 51-48 in four overtimes.  Tennessee is still winless in the conference, and although they still have opportunities ahead against Vanderbilt and Kentucky, it is doubtful that Dooley can save his job with wins against these perennial bottom-dwellers.  If they are released, Dooley and Chizik will join Arkansas coach John L. Smith and Kentucky's Joker Phillips, both of whom are already lame ducks, on the unemployment line.

3.  Anchor Down!

Vanderbilt was once a powerful football program, believe it or not, winning thirteen conference championships in the days before the Southeastern Conference was formed from the western half of the old Southern Conference.  The Commodores have never won the SEC title though, and as the glory days of the SEC's only private university predate all but the granddaddy of them all, Vandy's bowl record is slim.  Vanderbilt has only been to five bowl games in its history, ten fewer than the next two conference teams on the all-time list (in contrast, five SEC teams have been to more than 40 bowls, and Alabama has played in an NCAA-record 58).  So, it is no small achievement for the Commodores to make it to a bowl game, and Saturday's 27-26 come-from-behind win over Ole Miss gives Vandy six wins, meeting the threshold for bowl eligibility.  In fact, this will be the second bowl season in a row under head coach James Franklin, and the Commodores will finish fourth in the SEC East, behind three top 12 teams.  Congratulations to Vanderbilt on what has already been a remarkable season in 2012.

4.  The Good

(5) Georgia 38, Auburn 0

The Bulldogs led by four touchdowns by halftime, kept Auburn off the scoreboard, didn't turn the ball over, and only had three penalties for 15 yards in the ballgame.  Aaron Murray threw for three touchdowns, and the two-headed rushing monster "Gurley" ran for over 100 yards each.  This was probably Georgia's most complete game all year.  Looks like Auburn coach Gene Chizik made the right call burning Jonathan Wallace's redshirt.

(7) LSU 37, (21) Mississippi State 17

LSU turned in a workmanlike performance to deliver Mississippi State's third loss in as many weeks.  The Tigers, who spent most of the early part of the year running the ball to victory, let quarterback Zach Mettenberger throw the ball 30 times for the second week in a row, and Jarvis Landry had a career day, with nine catches for 109 yards and a touchdown.

(8) South Carolina 38, Arkansas 20

The Gamecocks, playing without Marcus Lattimore for the first game since his leg injury, threw the ball more than 40 times, and Connor Shaw had 272 yards and two touchdowns passing and another score on the ground as South Carolina won its first game over Arkansas since 2008.  The Gamecocks won their sixth SEC game for the second straight year, and with their eighth overall win, South Carolina has won at least eight games three years in a row, a first in the program's 110-year history.

Vanderbilt 27, Ole Miss 26

The Commodores trailed 23-6 early in the third quarter, but Jordan Rodgers threw a 52-yard touchdown pass to start the Vanderbilt rally, and ended with 26-yard touchdown pass in the last minute to seal the victory.  In the meantime, Ole Miss's Bo Wallace threw for a measly 403 yards on 31 completions (out of 49 attempts) in the loss.  The win marked Vanderbilt's third straight over the Rebels.

5.  The Bad

(15) Texas A&M 29, (1) Alabama 24

While the Aggies' win was certainly cheered around the country, and perhaps around the league, the defeat of the Tide all but eliminated the conference's chance to play in, and win, a seventh consecutive national championship.  Texas jumped out to a 20-0 lead in the first quarter and held on as Alabama fought their way back into the game, ultimately falling short on a fourth-and-goal with 1:36 remaining as Deshazor Everett intercepted AJ McCarron's pass.  After leading the country in turnover margin through the Mississippi State game, the Tide is -5 in turnovers the last two weeks, including three against the Aggies, all of which came at critical moments in the game.

Missouri 51, Tennessee 48, 4OT

If you only watched the first half of this game, you would've expected the Volunteers to destroy Missouri.  Tennessee outgained the Tigers 383-64 in the first stanza, and had a 21-7 halftime lead.  The only points for Missouri came on a kickoff return, and the Tigers struggled to move the football at all.  The teams didn't swap uniforms in the locker room, but the second half turnaround for Missouri was almost that profound.  Quarterback James Franklin threw four touchdowns, all of which came in the last minute of the half or in overtime.  The tying score, a 25-yard pass to Dorial Green-Beckham with 47 seconds left in regulation, was apparently drawn up on Franklin's hand in the huddle, like in a backyard game.  Tennessee fans booed the team and coach at the end of regulation, as the Vols let the clock run out with the score tied 28-28 after failing to gain any yardage on their first two plays after the Missouri touchdown.  The teams traded touchdowns in the first three overtimes, then Tennessee elected to forego a 35-yard field goal and instead turned the ball over on downs on a failed fourth down pass.  Missouri's Andrew Baggett then kicked the 35-yard game winner.

6.  The Ugly

(6) Florida 27, Louisiana-Lafayette 20

The Gators struggled to put away the Ragin' Cajuns early, and after starting quarterback Jeff Driskel left in the third quarter with an ankle injury, ULL jumped out to a lead following a touchdown on a blocked Florida punt.  A fourth-quarter field goal gave Louisiana-Lafayette a 20-13 lead, while backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett was sacked twice and nearly threw an interception in his first four pass attempts.  Brissett eventually got it together and threw a game-tying touchdown with 1:42 left in the game, and the contest appeared to be heading to overtime, but Florida's special teams redeemed themselves, blocking a Cajun punt and returning the ball for a touchdown with two seconds left to seal the ugly win.

7.  Games to Watch in Week Eleven

Ole Miss (5-5) at LSU (8-2) 

It's the week before rivalry week, and that typically means the worst slate of SEC games since week two.  The Tigers have apparently gottten their offense on track while Ole Miss is coming off a devastating last-second loss and still needs another win to be bowl eligible.  Look for LSU to control this one from start to finish.

Arkansas (4-6) at Mississippi State (7-3)

The Bulldogs are in need of a victory of any kind after three straight losses, and Arkansas is a much-less daunting opponent than the last three that Mississippi State has faced.  The Razorbacks need wins over both MSU and LSU to get to a bowl, while State needs to win out to keep itself in a decent bowl with six conference teams already ahead of them.  I expect this game to be close, but I'm leaning toward the Bulldogs.

Syracuse (5-5) at Missouri (5-5)

Syracuse and Missouri have only played each other twice, back in the mid-eighties, and while the Orange are not a great team, they are fresh off an upset of previously unbeaten Louisville.  Missouri needs a win to become bowl eligible, and are also coming off a big victory over Tennessee.  This will be a close one, but I am giving the nod to the Tigers, mainly because I prefer to believe that an SEC team will usually beat one from the Big East.

Tennessee (4-6) at Vanderbilt (6-4)

I really, really want to pick Vanderbilt to win this game, but I'm not sure that the Commodores match up well against the Volunteers.  Tennessee is terrible on defense, but can run up points and yards on just about anyone.  Can Vandy control Tennessee's offense enough to stay in the game until the end?  On the other hand, Vandy has won four straight games, while the Vols have dropped five of their last six.  I'm going with my heart over my head and picking the Commodores to win at home.

Election 2012: Alabama Amendments

Like my football analysis, my positions on these amendments are my opinions, and should be taken as such.

Amendment 1 - Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, relating to the Forever Wild Land Trust, to reauthorize the trust for a 20-year period. (Proposed by Act No. 2011-315)

I am actually sort of torn on this one.  The Forever Wild Land Trust sets aside 10% of the interest earned by the Alabama Trust Fund for purchasing land for public hunting and recreational use.  The Alabama Trust Fund is money that comes to the state from oil and gas leases in the Gulf of Mexico.  The FWLT was created in 1992 and has set aside 227,000 acres for public use so far.  The fiscal conservative in me says that setting aside money for 20 years may be foolish and wasteful (one proposal was to shorten this to a five-year renewal, but it failed in the legislature), but I like the idea of using the money for something related to the environment as sort of a trade off for the oil and gas origins of the money.  Alfa is against it, and that actually tips me over in favor of it.  I am leaning toward YES.

Amendment 2 - Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, as amended, to allow issuance by the State from time to time of general obligation bonds under the authority of Section 219.04 and Section 219.041 to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, as amended, so long as the aggregate principal amount of all such general obligation bonds at any time outstanding is not in excess of $750 million. This amendment would replace the maximum aggregate principal limitations currently contained in said Sections 219.04 and 219.041. The proposed amendment would also allow issuance by the State of general obligation refunding bonds under the authority of Sections 219.04 and 219.041 to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, as amended, subject to certain minimum savings thresholds and limitations of maximum average maturity. (Proposed by Act No. 2012-567)

This does two things - allows the state to refinance loans at a lower rate, which makes sense, and allows the state to issue bonds to raise money to lure businesses to Alabama.  From a strictly conservative standpoint, I can see both sides of this argument, but if you look at companies, like Mercedes and ThyssenKrupp, who have received incentives to locate in the state, it's hard to argue that that is anything but good for Alabama.  I'm voting YES.

Amendment 3 - Relating to Baldwin County, proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, to define the Stockton Landmark District within the county and to prohibit the annexation by local law of any property within the district into any municipality. (Proposed by Act No. 2011-316)

This prevents a larger city from annexing the community of Stockton without a vote of the people there.  This is one of those dumb amendments that has to be voted on statewide even though it only affects one county.  However, I think that in principle the residents of a community should have a say in their own annexation.  I am voting YES.

Amendment 4 - Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, to repeal portions of Amendment 111, now appearing as Section 256 of the Official Recompilation of the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, as amended, relating to separation of schools by race and to repeal Section 259, Amendment 90, and Amendment 109, relating to the poll tax.(Proposed by Act No. 2011-353)

The purpose of this amendment is to remove racist language from the Alabama constitution.  I have heard several ads about how this amendment is going to remove the right for public schools in Alabama, and while my kids are home-schooled, and that would not affect my children, the prospect that public schools will be eliminated is preposterous.  This amendment failed to pass by a 50-49% vote in 2004, I believe, and the national reporting was about how backwards Alabama decided to keep Jim Crow language in the constitution.  Let's not do that again, okay guys?  Also, AEA is against it, which nearly always puts me on the opposite side.  Vote YES.

A quick note here: my beef with Alfa and AEA is not their members or even their stances, per se.  It is the enormous amount of influence that they and their lobbyists wield in Montgomery.  In my opinion, the power that they have in Alabama is unhealthy because there is no balance against it, so I generally vote against them in principle.

Amendment 5 - Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, to provide for the transfer of the assets and liabilities of the Water Works and Sewer Board of the City of Prichard to the Board of Water and Sewer Commissioners of the City of Mobile, presently known as the Mobile Area Water and Sewer System. (Proposed by Act No. 2011-543)

This is a friendly transfer of the water works from Prichard to Mobile.  Vote YES.


Amendment 6 - Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, to prohibit any person, employer, or health care provider from being compelled to participate in any health care system. (Proposed by Act No. 2011-617)

This would theoretically allow Alabama residents to opt out of Obamacare.  I'm not sure if it would stand up in court and certainly if Obama is re-elected, it will be challenged if passed.  However, I am fundamentally opposed to government-mandated and controlled health care and I will vote YES.

Amendment 7 - Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, to amend Amendment 579 to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, now appearing as Section 177 of the Official Recompilation of the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, as amended, to provide that the right of individuals to vote for public office, public votes on referenda, or votes of employee representation by secret ballot is fundamental. (Proposed by Act No. 2011-656)

This would require that public elections and private union votes are taken by secret ballot.  The AFL-CIO opposes this, for obvious reasons.  I'm voting YES.

Amendment 8 - Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, to repeal the existing provisions for legislative compensation and expenses and establish the basic compensation of the Legislature at the median household income in Alabama; to require legislators to submit signed vouchers for reimbursement for expenses; and to prohibit the Legislature from increasing the compensation or expenses payable to its members. (Proposed by Act No. 2012-269)

Basically this repeals a recently-passed pay raise for Alabama legislators and ties their income to the median household income in Alabama, which means that when the citizens are doing well, the legislators will be paid well.  This seems like a common sense idea to me, and would incentify legislators to improve the income of Alabama households.  I'm voting YES.

Amendment 9 - Proposing an amendment to the private corporation provisions of Article 12 of the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, to become effective January 1, 2014, to continue the authority of the Legislature to pass general laws pertaining to corporations and other entities; to continue the authority of the Legislature to regulate and impose a business privilege tax on corporations and other entities; and to repeal various provisions concerning private corporations, railroads, and canals. (Proposed by Act No. 2012-275)

The Alabama GOP site says this removes outdated language, which seems fine, but that makes me wonder why that's important enough to create an amendment to do.  Among other things, it seems to strike a provision explicitly protecting churches and religious organizations from privilege taxes.  I am voting NO. 

Amendment 10 - Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, effective January 1, 2014, to amend Section 247 relating to the authority of the Legislature concerning banks and banking, to repeal various other provisions of Article XIII concerning banks and banking; and to repeal
Amendment 154 to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, now appearing as Section 255.01 of the Official Recompilation of the Constitution of
Alabama of 1901, as amended, subject to the contingency that a new Article XII of the state constitution is adopted that repeals existing
Section 232 of the state constitution, and subject to the contingency that Sections 10A-2-15.01 and 10A-2-15.02, Code of Alabama 1975, are repealed. (Proposed by Act No. 2012-276)

This also appears to be removing outdated banking language, some of which is invalidated by the current Federal monetary system.  Among other things, it strikes language about having a gold standard.  Again my question is, "why is this important now?"  Some sources I have read say that the intent is to allow state and local investment in public corporations, which is currently prohibited.  In any event, it seems sketchy to me.  When in doubt, vote NO.

Amendment 11 - Relating to Lawrence County, proposing an amendment to the Constitution of Alabama of 1901, to prohibit any municipality located
entirely outside of Lawrence County from imposing any municipal ordinance or regulation, including, but not limited to, any tax, zoning,
planning, or sanitation regulations, and any inspection service in its police jurisdiction located in Lawrence County and to provide that a municipality prohibited from imposing any tax or regulation under this amendment shall not provide any regulatory function or police or fire protection services in its police jurisdiction located in Lawrence County, other than public safety mutual aid. (Proposed by Act No. 2012-308)

This is intended to prevent the city of Decatur from overpowering Lawrence County without a vote of the people.  Vote YES.

There is also a Tuscaloosa County amendment.  It is designed to prevent an occupational tax from being implemented by the county government without a vote by the people - see the Tuscaloosa News article here.  I don't have the exact wording, but this is a YES vote for Tuscaloosa County residents.

If you have information that contradicts my reading of these amendments, and can deliver it in a way that will enlighten and inform without being belligerent, leave me a comment and I will update this post for the benefit of those who asked for it.  Thanks.

SEC Football Week Ten: The Rundown

Week Ten in the Southeastern Conference saw the third Alabama-LSU matchup within the last 12 months, and this one was the best game of the three.  A team that was undefeated a week ago is now reeling from two straight blowouts.  Three beleaguered teams got much-needed wins, while a fourth received a crushing defeat.  And the division leaders can finally see light at the end of the tunnel.  Let's start the rundown!

1.  Alabama faces its toughest test of the year and comes out on top.

While (1) Alabama went into Saturday's game with (5) LSU in Baton Rouge with a clear advantage on paper, the intangibles all favored LSU.  First, you had the night game atmosphere of Tiger Stadium, where the Tigers were 36-1 under Les Miles going into the game.  You had a team that was embarrassed in the national championship game going into a home game as a 10-point underdog, something that had never happened in Miles' tenure.  You had virtually everyone saying that the Tigers' offense was inferior to Alabama's, and you had an Alabama team that had not needed to play four full quarters of football all year.  LSU played their best game of the year, outgaining the Tide 435 yards to 331, and Tigers quarterback Zach Mettenberger was consistently accurate.  With 1:31 remaining in the game and no timeouts, Alabama trailed LSU 17-14 and needed to go 72 yards to score.  AJ McCarron led a masterful 43-second drive culminating in a 28-yard touchdown pass on a screen play to T. J. Yeldon to preserve the national and SEC championship hopes for the Crimson Tide.

2.  Texas A&M hammers another SEC West opponent.

Fresh off a 63-21 shellacking of Auburn on the road last week, (16) Texas A&M traveled to Starkville to face a Mississippi State team whose confidence was shaken after experiencing their first loss of the season in Tuscaloosa last week.  Unfortunately for the 15th-ranked Bulldogs, the Aggies picked up right where they left off, jumping out to a 24-0 first half lead, the same margin, incidentally, that Alabama had amassed in the first half the week before.  The Bulldogs were unable to get up off the mat, falling 38-13.  It is evident that MSU is now paying the dues on its lightweight early schedule, as 7-0 is now 7-2, with a trip to Baton Rouge on the horizon.  Johnny Manziel, the SEC's leading rusher and the Aggies' superstar freshman quarterback threw 30 completions on 36 passes for 311 yards and ran for two touchdowns, and A&M is still mathematically in contention for the SEC West in November.  That's a remarkable achievement for a first-year team (ask Missouri) and Aggies are loving their new QB, new coach, and new conference.

3.  Everyone who needs a win, step forward.  Not so fast, Kentucky.

There are four head coaches in the SEC whose jobs are in serious jeopardy, and while each of them arguably are past the point of no return, each team had an opportunity Saturday to turn their fortunes around, however fleetingly.  Auburn doubled its win total for the season with a 42-7 victory over New Mexico State, and had its best offensive performance of the year with a new quarterback under center.  Forget that the NMSU Aggies are 1-8 and in last place in the WAC, which won't even exist after this season.  Arkansas struggled to put Tulsa away, scoring a late touchdown to eke out a 19-15 win.  The Golden Hurricane is a good Conference-USA team, but the Razorbacks face three straight ranked SEC opponents to close the season, so the fans should savor this one.  Tennessee scored 55 points at home against Troy.  Unfortunately, the Vols gave up 48, and had to score a touchdown with 1:25 left in the fourth to seal the win.  While none of these wins will do much to preserve the jobs of Gene Chizik, John L. Smith or Derek Dooley, at least they didn't lose any more ground - like, say, Joker Phillips.  Kentucky faced Vanderbilt, which may well have been the toughest opponent of the four, and laid an egg, succumbing to the Commodores by a margin of 40-0.

4.  SEC Championship Game matchup is all but certain.

While neither team will be able to clinch their respective divisions until next week, both Alabama and Georgia jumped arguably their most difficult remaining hurdles on Saturday.  The Bulldogs' 37-10 win at home over Ole Miss keeps them a game ahead of Florida with only 2-7 Auburn remaining on their schedule in SEC play.  Alabama has both Texas A&M and Auburn left to play in the conference, but the victory over LSU means that 'Bama would have to lose both games to miss out on a trip to Atlanta.  The teams were originally supposed to play each other in the regular season this year, but the addition of two teams to the SEC forced major changes to the 2012 schedule.  Much was made in the off-season about Georgia avoiding what were perceived to be the major powers in the West for the second year in a row, since the Bulldogs didn't have to play Alabama, LSU or Arkansas.  However, the East turned out to be much stronger than anticipated, and while Georgia ran an easier gauntlet than either Florida or South Carolina, the Bulldogs did what they had to do to return to the title game for the second straight year.  There has been less talk about Alabama's path to Atlanta, although the Crimson Tide has also been aided by a schedule missing the top three teams in the SEC East.  Alabama and Georgia have never played each other in the SEC Championship Game, and the last meeting between the two teams was in the 2008 "Blackout Game," won 41-30 by the Tide.  Alabama leads the all-time series 36-25-4.

5.  The Good

(1) Alabama 21, (5) LSU 17

LSU dominated this game statistically.  The Tigers had more first downs than Alabama (22-18), didn't turn the ball over ('Bama fumbled twice), and converted 50% of their third downs (10 of 20) while the Tide struggled (1 of 9 for 11%).  Mettenberger threw for nearly 300 yards.  Jeremy Hill ran for 107 and a touchdown.  The Tide hadn't allowed a 100-yard rusher in two years.  While Les Miles made a few head-scratching decisions that looked poor in hindsight, he and his team threw everything they had at Alabama, clearly benefiting from an extra week of preparation and a determination to take more risks than in the last meeting in New Orleans.  Despite all of that, 'Bama did something that it hadn't had to do all season - something that all championship teams have to do - find a way to win.  The defending national champs were outplayed in the entire second half, but with the game on the line the Crimson Tide broke the hearts of the Bayou Bengals and salvaged the season.

(16) Texas A&M 38, (15) Mississippi State 13

The Aggies have won all five of their road games this season, and they ran the Bulldogs off the field in impressive fashion.  If anything, this game wasn't as close as the score indicates, as A&M outgained the Bulldogs by nearly 400 yards and amassed 21 more first downs.  Yikes.  Something tells me we have seen the last of those all-white "Snow Bowl" uniforms from Mississippi State.  Texas A&M, on the other hand, might want to keep those new black duds handy.

(6) Georgia 37, Ole Miss 10

Georgia spotted the Rebels the first ten points, obviously suffering a bit of a hangover after last week's big win over Florida, but the Bulldogs scored two second quarter touchdowns on great plays by quarterback Aaron Murray and went on to blank Ole Miss the rest of the way.  Georgia outgained the Rebels by 299 yards of offense and Murray threw four touchdowns with no interceptions on the day.

Vanderbilt 40, Kentucky 0

The Commodores exploded for 20 second-quarter points, scoring touchdowns on four of its five first half drives in the worst defeat of Kentucky by Vandy since 1916.  The Commodores are one win away from bowl eligibility with games remaining against Ole Miss, Tennessee and Wake Forest.  It is only sporting to pull for the 'Dores to make it to what would be only their six bowl appearance of all time (the next-closest conference teams, MSU and Kentucky, both currently have 15).

Auburn 42, New Mexico State 7

It would be a mistake to think that a win Saturday changes anything significant on the Plains, but at this point Auburn fans will take any success they can get.  The Tigers had two rushers over 100 yards, and Jonathan Wallace was solid in his first start, passing for 164 yards and a touchdown.

6.  The Bad

Tennessee 55, Troy 48

Tennessee's Pyrrhic victory over Troy saw the Trojans amass 721 yards of offense, take the lead three times, and force the Vols to score two touchdowns in the last three minutes to secure the win.  Keep in mind Troy lost to lowly Florida Atlantic last week.  I'm starting to wonder if Nick Saban actually sent Sal Sunseri to Tennessee as a double agent to destroy the Volunteers' defense.  Well played, Coach.

7.  The Ugly

(7) Florida 14, Missouri 7

The Gators took last week's loss to Georgia hard.  The out-manned Missouri squad put up a valiant effort in the Swamp, but the disinterested Gators finally managed to salt away the win.  Florida needed four interceptions, including one in the end zone with five seconds remaining on the clock, to put away the Tigers and keep themselves alive for a BCS bowl and an outside shot at the SEC title game. 


Arkansas 19, Tulsa 15

Although Tulsa had only lost one game coming in to Fayetteville, the Golden Hurricane has played a pretty atrocious set of teams.  The Razorbacks jumped out to an early 10-0 lead, but sleepwalked through the next two quarters.  Midway through the third, Tulsa kicked a field goal to go up 15-13.  Arkansas scored soon after to retake a four-point lead, but missed the two-point conversion.  Then the Razorbacks missed a field goal and bypassed another attempt for a field goal to go for it on fourth down, which they also failed to convert.  Fortunately, Tulsa was unable to capitalize on their fourth quarter opportunities, and Arkansas escaped with an ugly win.

8.  Games to Watch in Week Eleven

Texas A&M (7-2) at Alabama (9-0)

The Aggies face the Crimson Tide for just the fifth time and the first ever in Tuscaloosa.  These two programs have a lot of history together, sharing three coaches - Paul W. "Bear" Bryant, Gene Stallings, and Dennis Franchione - although both teams probably want to forget that last one.  Still, this A&M squad is focused on the present, not the past, and nothing would cap their inaugural season in the SEC like a win over the top-ranked Crimson Tide.  Alabama will be coming off an emotional road win and facing a completely different type of team than LSU.  'Bama's vaunted defense was exposed in Baton Rouge, and they will need to regroup quickly to keep the Tide's title hopes alive.  I am leaning toward an Alabama win, but I expect this to be a nailbiter.

Mississippi State (7-2) at LSU (7-2)

The Bulldogs have been manhandled the last two weeks, and LSU has proven to be on par with the two teams that did the manhandling.  I would not expect Mississippi State to have much of a chance, but last night's devastating loss could carry over into next week if the Tigers let it.  I expect a sloppy game and an LSU win.

Georgia (8-1) at Auburn (2-7)

The South's Oldest Rivalry has seen better games.  Georgia needs this win to go to Atlanta, while Auburn is only playing for pride and a chance to ruin the Bulldogs' title run.  The Tigers won't win, but I think that they will keep it closer than expected.

South Carolina (7-2) at Arkansas (4-5)

The Gamecocks have had a week to recover from the devastating injury to Marcus Lattimore, and I expect it to bring the team together.  Arkansas's chance at a bowl is on the line, but I predicted South Carolina to win this game in the preseason when the Razorbacks were still expected to be a top 10 team, and nothing I've seen this season makes me think that they can pull off the upset.

Vanderbilt (5-4) at Ole Miss (5-4)

While this is certainly not a marquee game, both teams are looking for bowl eligibility, and this has become a fairly big rivalry for both schools since the 1970s.  Vandy has won five of the last seven, but I give the edge to the Rebels.

Missouri (4-5) at Tennessee (4-5)

Mizzou's first season in the SEC has not turned out like they had hoped.  Tennessee's three-year run under Dooley has been its worst in decades.  Both teams need this win to keep their slim bowl hopes alive, but frankly, the fact that either of them could go to a bowl is an indictment of the current bowl system.  Tennessee doesn't have much defense, but the injury-riddled Tigers won't be able to make them pay for that.  I'm picking the Volunteers to win.


This is shaping up to be one of the most interesting slate of SEC games this season.  Enjoy.

SEC Football Week Nine: The Rundown

This week we saw the SEC East basically wrapped up by the team everyone expected to win it in the first place, an undefeated team that wasn't ready for prime time and another that won its first SEC game.  We also saw every coach on the "hot seat" lose, a new coach achieving a milestone, and the number of unblemished teams in the SEC narrowed to one.  Let's start the Rundown!

1.  Congratulations to Georgia, I guess.

I give credit to Georgia for one thing - when they put some emotional effort into a game, they are a pretty good team.  Fortunately for the Bulldogs, they have been able to phone it in for a good part of the season and still get into position to take the lead in the SEC East away from Florida.  Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, they looked as undisciplined as ever, amassing 14 penalties and three turnovers in a sloppily played 17-9 victory.  But the Gators looked even worse, losing four fumbles, throwing two interceptions and garnering ten penalties of their own.  Didn't anyone on the Florida team read my blog post last week where I said turnovers are bad?  Georgia still has to beat a decent Ole Miss team at home, then will close their SEC schedule against the worst Auburn team in decades, but Florida was the largest hurdle left for the 'Dawgs on the way to Atlanta.

2.  #FailState.

Mississippi State and its fans have embraced Twitter, using the #HailState and #WeBelieve hashtags to send pictures from around the world to encourage each other and their team on to victory.  That's okay as far as it goes, and fans with posters stating "8-0. We Believe" and cowbells getting pictures made at the White House, Times Square, the Eiffel Tower and whatnot are all well and good.  But if you are going to do something like this:

You might want to wait until the game is over, or at least until you have a team that can actually pull it off.

3.  Hugh Freeze may be SEC Coach of the Year.

One week after winning their first conference game in two years, Freeze's Rebels have doubled that total and are one win away from bowl eligibility.  Saturday's 30-27 win over Arkansas, like last week's victory over Auburn, was admittedly far from perfect, and neither opponent is likely to make a bowl game, but Ole Miss already looks like a much better team than they did under the last two years of Houston Nutt's tenure.  It remains to be seen whether Freeze can recruit well enough to move to the next level, but opponents are already having to change their view of the Rebels from an easy out to a dangerous opponent.  That's a big accomplishment, and if Freeze can find one or two more wins and makes a bowl - no easy task - I think he locks up the vote for SEC Coach of the Year.

4. The Good.

(1) Alabama 38, (11) Mississippi State 7

Alabama has made every opponent look vastly inferior this year by following the same formula - offensive balance; stifling defense, especially in the red zone; and forcing and capitalizing on mistakes by their opponents.  AJ McCarron hasn't thrown an interception all year and is only two touchdowns away from tying Greg McElroy's single-season school record.  The Tide's defense held State 100 yards below their season average, forced three turnovers from the nation's leader in turnover margin, and held the SEC's leading rusher, LaDarius Perkins, to just 38 yards on 15 carries.

Ole Miss 30, Arkansas 27

Mississippi quarterback Bo Wallace led the Rebels on an eight play, 61-yard drive to score the game-winning field goal as time expired.  Wallace was responsible for 316 yards of total offense for Ole Miss, completing 29 of 37 passes for 278 yards and rushing for another 38 yards on eleven carries.

Missouri 33, Kentucky 10

While it took three-quarters of the season to do so, Missouri won its first SEC game Saturday behind a strong finish by quarterback James Franklin, who replaced Corbin Berkstresser in the third quarter after he threw two consecutive interceptions.  The Tigers evened their record at 4-4.

Vanderbilt 49, Massachusetts 7

The Commodores scored two touchdowns in the last 55 seconds of the second half, then blew the game open with four touchdowns in the third quarter to put away a winless UMass team that is inaugurating its first season in FBS in grand style.

5.  The Bad.

(13) South Carolina 38, Tennessee 35

South Carolina's Marcus Lattimore, who returned this season from a devastating knee injury in 2011, appeared to severely damage his other knee on a routine tackle in the second quarter of the game.  The love of his teammates and respect of his opponents was abundantly clear as Lattimore was carted off the field.  Season-ending injuries are hard enough.  Having two of them in successive seasons, putting his future on the football field in doubt, is a tough pill to swallow, and it's something that no football fan wants to see.

(20) Texas A&M 63, Auburn 21

I'm running out of adjectives to describe how terrible this Auburn team is.  The Aggies outgained Auburn 671 yards (an all-time record for an Auburn opponent) to 335.  The game was over by the end of the first quarter, and at this point winning next week over 1-7 New Mexico State is going to look like an achievement.

6.  The Ugly.

(10) Georgia 17, (2) Florida 9

This game featured nine turnovers, 24 penalties, and several dustups that looked to be a second or two away from a full-blown fistfight.  The result was an ugly performance from both teams, although Georgia fans are glad to get away from Jacksonville with only their fifth victory over Florida in their last 23 matchups.

7.  Games to Watch in Week Ten.

(1) Alabama at (5) LSU

The Crimson Tide will face their sternest test of the 2012 season so far as they travel to Baton Rouge to face LSU.  The Tigers are still the best team that 'Bama will face in the regular season and, although the Tide used to pay rent on Tiger Stadium (because they owned it, you see), night games there are notoriously hard to win in the Les Miles era.  I give Alabama the edge due to LSU's offensive woes, but I expect another close game.

(16) Texas A&M at (15) Mississippi State

This is a tough game to predict.  I know Texas A&M is a good team and, coming off an easy win over Auburn, is pretty well rested for this game.  I also know that the Aggies might be tempted to look ahead to top-ranked Alabama week after next.  I know the Bulldogs were beat up a little bit against Alabama, and haven't faced as brutal a schedule as the Aggies.  I also know that State is playing at home and they have a lot left to play for in 2012.  I think this is pretty much a tossup, but I lean toward the home-standing Bulldogs in this one.

Ole Miss at (6) Georgia

Georgia should be able to handle Ole Miss, but it will be interesting to see if the Bulldogs have any kind of letdown after the Florida win.  In addition, I want to see what Ole Miss looks like against better competition than their last two SEC opponents.  I expect a Georgia win, but a close game, at least for the first half.