SEC Football Week One - What We Have Learned

If there's one thing that every college football fan can agree on, it's that there are a generally three or four throwaway non-conference games on the schedule.  These generally feature some directional school or Sisters of the Poor university that your team uses as a glorified scrimmage partner to prepare for the real games.  The SEC takes a lot of heat for scheduling these types of games, but if, in your excitement about COLLEGE FOOTBALL!!! this weekend you actually assessed the types of games that kicked off the season, you will notice that few games occurred between teams of any consequence, and several of these featured SEC teams.  (As an aside, the other thing that no one remembers about these kinds of games is that all the UABs, Lousiana Monroes, Wyomings, and North Texases of the NCAA would not exist without the large payouts afforded by these mismatches, which finance a large part of their athletics budgets every year, that they are good for the college towns where they are played, providing additional windfalls every year because they allow additional home games, and that they allow an opportunity for some players to hit the field that otherwise would not).  To the extent that these first games of the year tell us anything, they do so only in the rare contests between two good teams, or the even rarer upsets.  However, there are a few things that we learned in week one in the SEC:

1.  Alabama is for real/Michigan is not.
 The only ranked teams in playing each other in Week One were (2) Alabama and (8) Michigan.  After the first quarter of Alabama's 41-14 win over the Wolverines in Cowboys Stadium, it was clear that one team was not deserving of a top ten ranking.  Whether or not Alabama is truly a national championship contender will not be decided in September, or at least it won't be clear before the November showdown with LSU, but Michigan proved that whatever happens, they won't be in Miami for the BCS title game.  Alabama dominated Michigan in every phase of the game, and while the secondary had enough lapses that the Arkansas offense (in two weeks) is a real concern, the Alabama offense moved the ball more or less at will against what will likely turn out to be a decent Big Ten defense.  Michigan may eventually find its way to ten or eleven wins, but as with the 11-1 Big Ten champion Michigan State team that Alabama dismantled 49-7 in the Capital One Bowl after the 2010 season, ten wins in the Big Ten aren't the same is ten wins in the SEC.

2.  South Carolina is suspect/Vanderbilt is better than expected.
After the Gamecocks fought out a tough 17-13 victory over the 'Dores last Thursday, a friend of mine told me that there was no way that South Carolina was the 9th-ranked team in America.  I replied, half jokingly, that maybe Vanderbilt should be #10.  As with the Alabama/Michigan match-up, South Carolina probably wasn't as bad as they looked and Vanderbilt is probably a good deal better than a typical Vandy team.  All the advantages were on Vanderbilt's side - uncharacteristically favorable home crowd, national audience, enthusiastic coaching, and an early injury to South Carolina's Connor Shaw that appeared to hinder him throughout the game.  Yet, at the end of the game, as usual, Vandy came away a loser.  South Carolina will face an East Carolina team next week that won't be an easy out, then UAB - which will, before facing the meat of their SEC schedule.  They need to get the kinks worked out on both offense and defense of they want to make a run at the SEC East crown.

3.  Auburn still has question marks.
Only the most deluded fan would expect that completely changing offensive and defensive coordinators as well as schemes in the off-season would go off without a hitch.  Auburn's defense gave up over 500 yards and ten points in the last ten minutes to a Clemson team that was missing its most dynamic offensive player.  In addition, Kiehl Frazier completed around 40% of his passes and only managed one touchdown against a defense that gave up 70 points in its last game.  Auburn has four more games against teams that are currently ranked in the top ten and are all likely much better than Clemson.  If you assume that the Tigers lose each of those games, you're talking a seven-win season, and between Texas A&M, Mississippi State and possibly even Vanderbilt, you could potentially toss another loss in there somewhere.  Auburn needs to improve quickly before the season goes off the rails.

4.  Tennessee is much better when injury-free.
Tennessee lost several players to injury last year, including wide receiver Justin Hunter, and quarterback Tyler Bray (who returned but played hurt and clearly diminished).  The Vols took care of NC State 35-21 Friday night, and while the Wolfpack is a mediocre opponent, Tennessee needed a big win to build confidence going into the 2012 season.  Bray and Hunter might have been overshadowed by freshman phenom
Cordarrelle Patterson, but if all three stay healthy, 2012 will be better than 2011 for Tennessee.

5.  Teams that looked good putting away inferior competition:

(3) LSU (41-14 over North Texas at home)

The Tigers outgained North Texas by nearly 300 yards, and really, LSU could have named their score.


Missouri (62-10 over Southeastern Louisiana at home)

Missouri scored two touchdowns on punt returns and two touchdowns on turnovers to completely rout the hapless Lions of Southeastern Louisiana.

(10) Arkansas (49-24 over Jacksonville State at home)

Frankly Arkansas let Jacksonville State score too many points and hang around too long before putting them away in the second half, but at least Jacksonville State won their conference last year.

Mississippi State (56-9 over Jackson State at home)

The Bulldogs had two pick-sixes and had nine different rushers en route to 194 yards on the ground.

6.  Teams that didn't look good putting away inferior competition:
(23) Florida (27-14 over Bowling Green at home)

Florida had to score ten points in the fourth quarter to put the game away and gave up 22 first downs to the Falcons while achieving 14 over their own.  It appears that Jeff Driskel won the quarterback job over Jacoby Brissett, but neither looked very sharp.

(6) Georgia (45-23 over Buffalo at home)

While the game wasn't close very long after halftime, Georgia's defense gave up nearly five yards per play to a team that has won five games in the last two years.

Ole Miss (49-27 over Central Arkansas)

Central Arkansas actually led 20-14 at halftime before Ole Miss finally switched into gear, although the Rebels did outgain the Bears by over 200 yards.

7. Teams that did not play.

Texas A&M's game at Louisiana Tech was postponed due to Hurricane Isaac, and Kentucky forgot to show up for their game against (25) Louisville (a 32-14 loss).

Games to watch in Week Two:

Florida travels to College Station, Texas for Texas A&M's first SEC game (and first game, for that matter).  ESPN Gameday will be there and the crowd will likely be electric.  While Florida will probably be favored, in my opinion the Aggies have a good shot to win.

Georgia travels to Columbia, Missouri for the Tigers' first SEC game as well.  Georgia will also be favored, but Missouri will move the ball on the Bulldogs and it could be a shootout. 

Washington travels to LSU for a night game at Tiger Stadium.  The Tigers should easily handle the Huskies, but if nothing else you can determine which version of purple and gold you like best.

Mississippi State and Auburn face off on the plains.  On paper, this looks to be a close game.  The Tigers will be on upset alert, but the Bulldogs rarely pull off an upset over Auburn even when they have a better team (see 2011).

Vanderbilt plays at Northwestern, who just won a scorefest against Syracuse in the Carrier Dome.  The Commodores are probably better than the Orangemen, but this one won't be easy by any means.  We should learn from this whether Vandy is a bowl-competitor in 2012.

I don't know if UTEP at Ole Miss is a game to watch, necessarily, but given that the Miners played Oklahoma pretty well in a 24-7 loss, this might be a rare win for a Conference-USA team over one from the SEC.  It may be a close one anyway.