The SEC season is three-fourths over and winding down. The title game participants have already been decided. Let's review my preseason predictions, and where we stand in the best conference in college football.
1. Ole Miss will be good this year, and perhaps beat a team they shouldn't, but they will not go to the SEC Championship Game.
Ole Miss has turned out to be a pretty average team. They could still surprise me, by winning against Tennessee and/or LSU, but I honestly doubt it.
2. Vanderbilt will return to a bowl game.
No. Vanderbilt has regressed considerably.
3. Of the three teams with a new coach (Auburn, Mississippi State and Tennessee), State will be the one that performs better than expected.
Early on this looked like Auburn running away, but the Tigers (7-3) have fallen back to earth. Tennessee (4-4) has played well recently, but has dropped three winnable games. Mississippi State is 4-5 and has improved along the way while facing a brutal schedule. If State could pull out wins against Arkansas and Ole Miss and get a bowl bid, then i will be totally vindicated.
4. Les Miles (LSU) will be on the coaching hot seat by the end of the year.
Not likely. LSU has improved over last year, especially defensively. Their two losses have come to Florida and Alabama, and they could legitimately finish 11-2.
5. Florida will beat Tennessee by at least 35 points.
Unfortunately, this didn't happen.
6. Alabama will win the SEC West.
Done.
7. Florida will win the SEC East.
Done.
8. Florida will win the SEC.
This one is still undecided and will be until December 5. Florida hasn't looked incredibly impressive this year, but they do know how to win. If both teams make it to the game undefeated... wow, it's going to be a slugfest.
9. Tim Tebow will win the Heisman Trophy.
If he does it will be based on his body of work rather than this year. Surprisingly, the front-runner appears to be Mark Ingram.
10. The national champion will come from outside the SEC this year.
We won't know this until January, obviously, but with Florida at #1 and Alabama at #3, an SEC representative is relatively likely to make it to Pasadena. I just don't see anyone else knocking the SEC champ off at this point, although Texas is the odds-on favorite to face them.
Other observations:
Alabama - The Tide will play Florida again in the title game for all the marbles, assuming they take care of business the next three weeks. Winning 21 of the last 23 games has probably given the Tide more confidence this time around and Florida looks vulnerable. This could be one for the ages. My prediction: Alabama plays in the BCS National Championship Game
Arkansas - Arkansas has improved as a team over last year, but may have missed an opportunity to take the next step against Ole Miss. Still, the Hogs should make a bowl game. The missing piece for this team is defense. My prediction: PapaJohns.com Bowl
Auburn - Auburn has been streaky this year, winning five in a row, then losing three straight, now winning the last two. Now an 8-4 finish looks achievable, which is quite an accomplishment given the situation Chizik inherited. My prediction: Cotton Bowl
Florida - The Gators have benefited from a weak schedule and honestly, a weak division. Florida is a good team, but are they a great one? The only question remaining for the Gators is whether or not Tebow can will them to another championship. My prediction: Sugar Bowl
Georgia - The Bulldogs are an average team. They could salvage this season by winning out, but it won't be easy. Auburn, Kentucky and Georgia Tech are all capable of beating the 'Dawgs, and the difference between 5-7 and 8-4 is huge for Mark Richt. At the very least, look for defensive coordinator Willie Martinez to get the boot at the end of the season. My prediction: Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Kentucky - Kentucky is a decent team, but not a great one. Next weekend's game at Vandy is their best chance to get bowl-eligible, but a win over either Georgia or Tennessee would cement it. My prediction: Bowl eligible, but nowhere to go.
LSU - LSU has seemed to hit its stride over the last few weeks, despite the setback at Alabama. The offense has gotten steadily better and the defense has kept the Bayou Bengals in every game. After receiving a number of injuries during the 'Bama game, it remains to be seen how the Tigers will be affected. My prediction: Capital One Bowl
Mississippi - Ole Miss has played one good game this year (Arkansas) and three bad ones (South Carolina, Alabama, and Auburn). The Rebs are bowl eligible now at 6-3, but they could conceivably lose the last three on the schedule. Not what Colonel Reb was expecting with the SEC championship hype. I predict that Ole Miss will finish 7-5, and go to the Independence Bowl, which is where they should expect to hang out for a while. My prediction: Independence Bowl
Mississippi State - State has played a tough schedule out of conference (Houston, Georgia Tech) and in, but last week's win against Kentucky could have been a turning point. Expect them to give Alabama all they can handle next weekend. Still, the road to bowl eligibility will be difficult. State will have to pick up wins against both Arkansas and Ole Miss to get there. My prediction: Music City Bowl
South Carolina - South Carolina looked like a player at mid-season, but with two consecutive losses and Florida coming up next week, the Gamecocks look to be on another patented late-season slide. If the 'Cocks lose to the Gators and to Clemson in two weeks, finishing 6-6, don't be surprised to hear for calls for Spurrier to retire (or be fired). How the mighty have fallen. My prediction: Liberty Bowl
Tennessee - The Vols have looked mighty strong since losing to Auburn in early October, and they seem to have finally found out how to play offense in Knoxville. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tennessee finish 8-4. My prediction: Outback Bowl
Vanderbilt - Just horrible, or in other words, back to normal. My prediction: No bowl game
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