SEC in Review: Week Four

So we're basically one-third of the way through the SEC season, and although we're just getting in to the meat of the conference schedule, I think it's time to review. First, let's look back at my preseason predictions for the season and see where I stand.

1. Ole Miss will be good this year, and perhaps beat a team they shouldn't, but they will not go to the SEC Championship Game.

The only thing wrong with this one is that Ole Miss may not be that good. They definitely don't look like a team on its way to Atlanta.

2. Vanderbilt will return to a bowl game.

The jury is still out on this one, but it doesn't look good for the Commodores.

3. Of the three teams with a new coach (Auburn, Mississippi State and Tennessee), State will be the one that performs better than expected.

This one is still debatable, but I would have to give the nod to Auburn. Although they haven't really played anyone that should have threatened them, the offensive improvement over last year cannot be overstated. Mississippi State might have made a better case if they could have punched it in against LSU.

4. Les Miles (LSU) will be on the coaching hot seat by the end of the year.

He got pretty darn close to being there Saturday.

5. Florida will beat Tennessee by at least 35 points.

Unfortunately, this didn't happen.

6. Alabama will win the SEC West.

Looking pretty likely right now.

7. Florida will win the SEC East.

Almost a certainty.

8. Florida will win the SEC.

Not so sure about this after watching 'Bama and Florida so far.

9. Tim Tebow will win the Heisman Trophy.

He won't win it on statistics even assuming that the concussion doesn't keep him out for any significant time. However, Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) and Jevan Snead (Ole Miss) have already more or less been eliminated. It remains to be seen whether Cal's loss to Oregon hurts Jahvid Best. So far though, I would call Colt McCoy the front-runner.

10. The national champion will come from outside the SEC this year.

We won't know this until January, obviously, but with Florida at #1 and Alabama at #3, an SEC representative is relatively likely to make it to Pasadena.


Other observations:

Alabama - The big questions coming in to the season were about the quarterback position and the offensive line. So far, Greg McElroy and the O-line have performed surprisingly well, and Alabama's offense has been much more multidimensional than in 2008. The SEC West is Alabama's to lose.

Arkansas - The Razorbacks have improved significantly with former Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett calling the signals. Unfortunately, their defense is still suspect. One can begin to see the progress under Bobby Petrino's system, but it will be another year or two before Arkansas is a contender.

Auburn - New coach Gene Chizik has the Tigers winning and has Auburn fans thinking championship. Offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn deserves loads of credit for nearly tripling the points per game that Auburn scores on average versus last year. The Tigers are awfully thin though, and with Kodi Burns, Onterio McCalebb and Ben Tate all getting banged up this weekend, the wheels could come off pretty quickly.

Florida - The Gators may not be quite as good as last year's squad, but the conference schedule is almost ludicrously weak. The only question right now is Tim Tebow. How hurt is he, and when will he be back?

Georgia - Surprise, surprise! Losing two offensive stars in the first round of the NFL draft has an impact on your team. The problem for Georgia though is that their defense is still porous as a sieve. The Bulldogs have enough talent to be competitive, but the next four weeks is brutal, with games versus LSU, at Tennessee, at Vandy, and versus Florida. Georgia will be lucky to come out of that stretch with less than two losses.

Kentucky - Kentucky is Kentucky - decent team, not world beaters. Capable of pulling off an upset, the goal this year is going to be getting back to a bowl game. They have a good chance, if they can win one against either MSU, Vandy, or South Carolina.

LSU - Former Tennessee defensive coordinator was supposed to fix LSU's defensive woes. The Fighting Tigers gave up 374 yards Saturday to Mississippi State (over 100 yards more than they had), and staved off a disaster by less than one yard. Given the losses by Ole Miss, California and Penn State, the Tigers might move up to #4 in the polls, but I expect them to be exposed in the next two weeks.

Mississippi - Ole Miss may have fallen victim to their own hype, as some would have you believe, but this team has looked lethargic and out of sync in its first three games. I'm not sure that the Rebels were ever serious contenders for the West title, but they need to tune up next Saturday against Vanderbilt (the Commodores have won the last two meetings) if they want to have a chance against the Crimson Tide in two weeks.

Mississippi State - Coach Dan Mullen was one yard away from a big-time "signature" win Saturday, and he already has brought improvement to the Bulldogs. Unfortunately, it may be hard to tell from the record, as the Bulldogs have a conference schedule that includes Florida, and a nonconference schedule featuring #17 Houston and soon-to-be-ranked Georgia Tech.

South Carolina - Sure, the Gamecocks did defeat a top five team at home for the first time EVER (wrap your head around that), but unfortunately, it was Ole Miss - a team that had no business being ranked there to start with. Still, South Carolina is one play away from being 4-0, and has a decent defense that should keep them in any game. Spurrier's biggest problem the last couple of years has been his team falling apart at the end of the season, so we may not really know about this team until December.

Tennessee - Tennessee got more credit for losing a game than any team ever after last week's 23-13 defeat at Florida, but followed it up with an underwhelming performance against Ohio Saturday. It might be unfair to call the Vols' offense abysmal (that would be reserved for last year's team), but any blue chip senior high school quarterback recruit out there should expect to be able to start next year for Tennessee. A bowl game would be an accomplishment.

Vanderbilt - The Commodores went to their first bowl game in 50 years last season. Given the schedule, it's going to be an uphill climb to repeat that accomplishment. The Dores blew their best opportunity for an SEC win against Mississippi State, and they will probably not be favored in any other conference game.