At one time, Tennessee and Auburn were games that Alabama fans anticipated all year - a measuring stick against which success or failure for a season was judged. Former Tennessee coach General Robert Neyland famously said, "You never know what a football player is made of until he plays Alabama." Among SEC teams, not counting the two new members, Auburn and Tennessee have the closest winning percentage against Alabama. Alabama has beaten Auburn in 55.2% of its matchups, while Tennessee sits at 55.9%. Among the old SEC, only these two teams and Georgia have beaten Alabama more than 40% of the time that they have played. Arkansas, although its history against Alabama has largely taken place since the Razorbacks joined the SEC in 1992, has a respectable 8-13 record against the Tide, which is second place in winning percentage among SEC West opponents (not counting newbie Texas A&M, which is 3-2). Alabama has played Tennessee 94 times, more than any other opponent but Mississippi State. And even though Alabama and Auburn didn't play each other for 40 years, stemming from a minor dispute, the Tide and Tigers have still played 77 times. That's tied for fourth among Alabama opponents.
My point is that Alabama's success in many ways is bound up with the teams that they call their rivals, and years of terrible or even mediocre play by those rivals serves to tarnish the rivalry. I often cringe when I hear Bama fans say that they want Auburn to win every game except against Alabama. I don't. I (perhaps irrationally) hate Auburn. I hate their colors. I hate their traditions. I think Auburn's trees are stupid, their toilet paper rolling is stupider and their fans are the stupidest of all. But I recognized last week that beating them 49-0, while satisfying, lacked any real punch. Every Auburn fan I know knew that they were going to get killed. Some of them ignored the game completely. As much as I hated losing to them in 2010 by one point against *** Newton, I would have enjoyed winning that one and ruining their dream season a lot more than I did this year's contest. So, that being said, I have some advice for the administrations of Auburn, Tennessee, and Arkansas. Hire a proven head coach.
As almost any college football fan can tell you, Alabama fans speak with experience on this front. Our greatest coach of all time, the legendary Paul William Bryant, was a Bama alum and championship winner as a player. But Bryant was also an experienced winner when he was hired to helm the Tide in 1958. Bryant won an SEC championship at Kentucky, for Pete's sake, the only outright title the Wildcats have ever won, and turned Texas A&M into a Southwest Conference champion before he came to Alabama to become the Greatest of All Time. After Bryant, Alabama ran through nine different head coaches in 25 years, which incidentally was the same amount of time Bryant coached at Alabama. Do you realize that Nick Saban, the supposed mercenary head coach, has been at Alabama longer than any other head coach since Bryant, save one? Saban is only one year away from equalling Gene Stallings' tenure at Alabama. What did Alabama learn during those (largely) fallow years?
Among those nine coaches, the people Alabama hired fell into three categories: proven head coach (one with a winning record and championship experience), unproven head coach (one with a losing/mediocre record), and former coordinator (little or no head coaching experience).
Proven Head Coach - Dennis Franchione (138-65-2 at Southwestern/Pittsburgh State/SW Texas State/New Mexico/TCU, nine conference championships); Nick Saban (91-42-1 at Toledo/Michigan State/LSU, three division championships, three conference championships, one national championship; 15-17 at Miami Dolphins)
Unproven Head Coach - Ray Perkins (23-34 at NY Giants); Bill Curry (31-43-4 at Georgia Tech); Gene Stallings (27-45-1 at Texas A&M; 23-34-1 at St. Louis/Phoenix Cardinals); Mike Price (129-122 at Weber State/Washington State)
Former Coordinator - Mike Dubose, Mike Shula, Joe Kines (interim)
As you can see from these breakdowns, Alabama only hired two proven head coaches in the years after Bryant retired. Everyone knows about Saban - the greatest college football coach of this era. He had three conference championships and a national title before he came to Alabama, and he has won two more of each since arriving, with a third national championship potentially looming. Franchione was also a proven commodity, winning nine conference championships before coaching the Tide. Franchione was successful in his two seasons at Alabama, but NCAA probation scared him off to coach elsewhere.
Among the unproven head coaches, Stallings turned out to be the best of those - winning a national title and 70 games in seven years. Perkins and Curry are generally regarded as failures, although both finished with winning records. Price was an unmitigated disaster who never even coached a game for the Tide, unless you count A-Day. And the coordinators? The kindest way to put it is that they weren't ready for one of the biggest stages in college football.
So? Why should Auburn, Arkansas and Tennessee learn from Alabama's head coaching misfires? Well, if that isn't enough of an example for you, take a look at the coaches in the SEC.
First, among the four coaches that were fired at the conclusion of the 2012 season, see if you spot a common pattern:
- Gene Chizik (Auburn) - former defensive coordinator, 5-19 as head coach of Iowa State
- John L. Smith (Arkansas) - interim, former special teams coach
- Joker Phillips (Kentucky) - former offensive coordinator
- Derek Dooley (Tennessee) - 17-20 as head coach of Louisiana Tech
Of course, all of these coaches were either unproven head coaches or coordinators. What about the other current coaches in the SEC? Let's start with the teams that are currently ranked in the BCS top ten.
- Nick Saban (Alabama) - proven head coach - (62-13 at Alabama, 2 SEC, 2 NC)
- Will Muschamp (Florida) - former defensive coordinator - (18-7 at Florida)
- Mark Richt (Georgia) - former offensive coordinator - (117-40 at Georgia, 2 SEC)
- Les Miles (LSU) - proven head coach (85-20 at LSU, 2 SEC, 1 NC)*
- Kevin Sumlin (Texas A&M) - proven head coach - (10-2 at Texas A&M)
- Steve Spurrier (South Carolina) - proven head coach - (65-37 at USC)
Richt and Muschamp are the only coaches here that were not proven commodities when hired. Richt has clearly been successful. It's too early to conclude anything about Muschamp at this point, although he looks better now than he did a year ago.
As for the rest?
- Hugh Freeze (Ole Miss) - proven head coach - (6-6 at Ole Miss)
- Dan Mullen (Miss. State) - former offensive coordinator - (29-21 at MSU)
- Gary Pinkel (Missouri) - proven head coach (90-61 at Mizzou)
- James Franklin (Vanderbilt) - former offensive coordinator - (14-11 at Vandy)
Freeze and Franklin are too new to really pronounce judgment, but Mullen may have already hit his ceiling. Pinkel has taken Missouri to new heights in the Big XII, although it remains to be seen whether he can win big in the SEC.
All this data shows us that there is no perfect way to hire a head coach. There have been successful coaches in this league that have come from all different levels. Tomorrow's great head coach might truly be today's offensive coordinator, but with each choice there is a degree of risk. Auburn, Tennessee, and Arkansas are big-name programs in the most difficult conference in college football. The fan interest, media scrutiny and cost of failure are as high in this league as they are anywhere in the country, especially for the top-tier programs. While a perennial bottom-dweller like Kentucky can take a risk on a up-and-coming coordinator like Mark Stoops, two or three years of on-the-job training are not an option for a program that hopes to compete against those six guys in the top ten I mentioned previously. Furthermore, all three programs have wealthy boosters who can help pony up to get a successful coach into the door.
A head coach with a proven record of success is going to be successful at an SEC school. Most likely, he has been doing more with less somewhere else. Take Urban Meyer for example. A guy who can turn around a losing program at Bowling Green and go 17-6 in two seasons might be pretty good, right? Then he went on to lead Utah to a BCS bowl and an undefeated season. His success at Florida (2 SEC and 2 NC) was fairly easy to predict, and he has already led Ohio State to an 12-0 finish in 2012. While few will attain Meyer's level of success, there are plenty of experienced winners out there that could do even more with the resources of an SEC program.
While I would never presume to tell the presidents and ADs at these institutions of higher learning how to do their jobs, I would give them this one recommendation: find a head coach with a record of success, even if it's with a lower tier school. Steer clear of an unproven one-hit wonder or worse, a coordinator with no experience as a head coach. Your job may depend on it.
*Miles is debatable as a proven head coach before LSU, but he had a winning record at Oklahoma State and turned around a losing program, taking them to three straight bowls.
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