You'll notice that I give each SEC team that would qualify for a bowl game a win in their bowl. My assumption is that head-to-head, the SEC team is better. That's how I roll.
SEC WEST
Alabama - Alabama starts 2012 much as it did 2010, coming off of a national championship with high expectations. The 2010 campaign ended in disappointing fashion, at least by recent standards, finishing 10-3 with losses to South Carolina, LSU and Auburn. While the Tide has to contend with the loss of a number of starters to graduation and the NFL, the reigning champions seem to have a much more business-like approach to this season than 2010. Many of the players from 2010 saw how a load of talent doesn't compensate for a dearth of leadership and, perhaps, effort. That being said, the two biggest tests on the schedule (Arkansas and LSU) are both on the road, and while they may appear slightly less daunting today than they did when the schedules were drawn up, they won't be cakewalks. If the Tide can stay relatively injury-free however, they have a chance of being the first back-to-back champions of the BCS era.
Likely Wins: Michigan (N), Western Kentucky, @Arkansas, Florida Atlantic, Ole Miss, @Missouri, @Tennessee, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Western Carolina, Auburn
Likely Losses: None
Tossups: @LSU
Prediction: 14-0 (8-0), SEC and National Champion
Arkansas - Even if Bobby Petrino had not taken that ill-fated motorcycle ride, Arkansas still had an uphill road to climb in the SEC West. Loads of offensive talent and a slightly better defense will make the Razorbacks a formidable opponent, but the list of first-year SEC coaches that have (or should have) won the conference in the modern era is really short. Tyler Wilson may be the offensive player of the year, but the 'Backs will likely still be in the Cotton Bowl in January.
Likely Wins: Jacksonville State, ULM, Rutgers, @Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tulsa, @Mississippi State
Likely Losses: Alabama, LSU
Tossups: @Texas A&M, @South Carolina Prediction: 10-3 (5-3), SEC West - 3rd
Auburn - By all accounts, Auburn got two good coordinators in the offseason. Defensive improvement is going to be the name of the game for the Tigers, but the question mark at quarterback has got to be a point of concern. Still, a weak schedule and sound play at home favor the Tigers in 2012.
Likely Wins: @Mississippi State, ULM, @Ole Miss, @Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, Alabama A&M
Likely Losses: LSU, Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama
Tossups: Clemson (N), Texas A&M
Prediction: 9-4 (4-4), SEC West - 4th
LSU - Losing the "Honey Badger" is less of a blow to the defense than some pundits might think, but LSU struggled to put points on the board offensively last season with experienced QB play. Mathieu's real contribution to the team was as a returner and playmaker, and it remains to be seen what kind of leader the Tigers will have with Mettenberger. Regardless, LSU's strength is its defense, and they may be even better in 2012. Alabama-LSU, like last year, is a legitimate toss-up, but I'm inclined to go with the team that has a proven quarterback.
Likely Wins: North Texas, Washington, Idaho, @Auburn, Towson, @Florida,@Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Arkansas
Likely Losses: None
Tossups: Alabama, South Carolina
Prediction: 12-1 (7-1), SEC West - 2nd
Ole Miss - The Rebels will improve this year, but no one will notice.
Likely Wins: Central Arkansas, UTEP, Tulane
Likely Losses: Texas, @Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, @Arkansas, @Georgia, @LSU
Tossups: Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Prediction: 3-9 (0-8), SEC West - 7th
Mississippi State - Mississippi State in the Dan Mullen era has always seemed poised for a breakout year. Unfortunately, State is a decent team in a brutal division. I suspect MSU will be better than their record indicates, but the only consolation will be beating Ole Miss. Again.
Likely Wins: Jackson State, @Troy, South Alabama, @Kentucky, MTSU
Likely Losses: Auburn, @Alabama, Texas A&M, @LSU, Arkansas
Tossups: Tennessee, @Ole Miss
Prediction: 7-6 (2-6), SEC West - 6th
Texas A&M - The Aggies have a good new coach and decent talent, but they are going to be overmatched by the big boys in the SEC. Still, they will be competitive in most games and could pull out an upset or two. Defensively, though, they will have to get a whole lot better to compete with the top tier.
Likely Wins: @La Tech, @SMU, S Carolina State, @Ole Miss, @Mississippi State, Sam Houston State
Likely Losses: LSU, @Alabama
Tossups: Florida, Arkansas, @Auburn, Missouri
Prediction: 8-5 (3-5), SEC West - 5th
SEC EAST
Florida - Florida is one of the two biggest question marks in my mind this season. They've got loads of talent and they replaced their weakest link (Charlie Weis at OC), so I suspect that they will be better than last year. Unfortunately, the speed and finesse of the past needs to be replaced with strength and toughness, and I think the Gators are still at least a year away from title contention.
Likely Wins: Bowling Green, @Tennessee, Kentucky, @Vanderbilt, Missouri, La Lafayette, Jacksonville State
Likely Losses: LSU, South Carolina, Florida State
Tossups: @Texas A&M, Georgia (N)
Prediction: 9-4 (5-3), SEC East - 3rd
Georgia - The Bulldogs are the sexy pick to repeat as champions of the East, mainly because they don't face Alabama, Arkansas or LSU for the second year in a row. Somehow, I just don't see it happening again, and you just can't go wrong betting on Georgia to underachieve.
Likely Wins: Buffalo, @Missouri, Florida Atlantic, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, @Kentucky, Ole Miss, @Auburn, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech
Likely Losses: None
Tossups: @South Carolina, Florida (N)
Prediction: 11-2 (6-2), SEC East - 2nd
Kentucky - Kentucky is still Kentucky, water is still wet, and the sky is still blue.
Likely Wins: @Louisville, Kent State, Western Kentucky, Samford
Likely Losses: @Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi State, @Arkansas, Georgia, @Missouri, @Tennessee
Tossups: VanderbiltPrediction: 4-8 (0-8), SEC East -7th
Missouri - The Tigers are a tough team to predict, but offseason injuries have taken a toll and the Missouri defense was already not so hot. I think that they will compete and surprise some teams, but a middling finish and a mediocre bowl are about the best that they can expect.
Likely Wins: SE Louisiana, @UCF, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Syracuse
Likely Losses: Georgia, @South Carolina, Alabama, @Florida
Tossups: Arizona State, @Tennessee, @Texas A&M
Prediction: 8-5 (3-5), SEC East -5th
South Carolina - The Gamecocks bring back the best running back in the SEC not named Trent Richardson as well as a stingy defense and an efficient game manager at quarterback. In many ways, Spurrier has built this team into a clone of Alabama, which is why I think that they will win the East this year. After watching them demolish Nebraska in the Capital One Bowl, I am a believer in this team, even (maybe especially) without Alshon Jeffery.
Likely Wins: @Vanderbilt, East Carolina, UAB, Missouri, @Kentucky, @Florida, Tennessee, Wofford, @Clemson
Likely Losses: None
Tossups: Georgia, @LSU, Arkansas
Prediction: 12-2 (7-1), SEC East - 1st
Tennessee - Coach Derek Dooley, when he was hired, seemed to be a decent choice given the circumstances. This is his make or break year, and while I think that they will be moderately successful, it remains to be seen whether the Vol Nation will be satisfied with that.
Likely Wins: NC State (N), Georgia State, Akron, Troy, Vanderbilt, Kentucky
Likely Losses: Florida, @Georgia, Alabama, @South Carolina
Tossups: @Mississippi State, Missouri
Prediction: 9-4 (4-4), SEC East - 4th
Vanderbilt - James Franklin has brought excitement and expectations to Vanderbilt for the first time in living memory. By Vandy standards, I expect a good year, meaning a bowl game and not finishing last in the East.
Likely Wins: Presbyterian, UMass,
Likely Losses: South Carolina, @Georgia, @Missouri, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee
Tossups: @Northwestern, @Kentucky, @Ole Miss, @Wake Forest
Prediction: 7-6 (2-6), SEC East - 6th
