Alabama and the 14 National Championships, Part II

Part I

In the first part of this series, I reviewed Alabama's fourteen claimed national championships, including the season results and how Alabama arrived at that number.  In my opinion, thirteen of those titles are very hard to dispute, although the 1941 championship is pretty dubious.  The College Football Data Warehouse (CFDW) web site, agrees that Alabama has 13 "recognized" national championships, but lists 27 total.  So, if Alabama claims fourteen of those titles, what about the other thirteen?  Are any of those titles "legitimate?"

Everyone knows that the BCS era has eliminated multiple national champions, right?  After cruising through the regular season undefeated in 2011, top-ranked LSU made it to the BCS National Championship Game and met second-ranked Alabama for the title.  Alabama beat LSU 21-0, and everybody agreed that they won the Mythical National Championship (MNC), or did they?

As a matter of fact, many people felt like Oklahoma State, who finished third in the BCS, deserved to play in the title game, since LSU had already defeated 'Bama in the regular season (a 9-6 win in overtime).  Others were less concerned about the fact that the Tigers and the Tide had already played each other, and more about the fact that Alabama had not won its conference title, as LSU and Okie State had.  While Alabama won the championship game, three selectors (1st-N-Goal, CBSSportsLine, and Colley) chose Oklahoma State as the 2011 national champ.  In fact, Congrove and the Seattle Times, chose LSU as the 2011 national champion, basically stating that the bowl game was meaningless!  How's that for irony, given the so-called dispute over Alabama's 1964 and 1973 titles?  So, is Oklahoma State's claim to the 2011 title illegitimate?

In 2004, the Auburn Tigers finished 13-0-0, winning the SEC Championship and the Sugar Bowl over Virginia Tech.  Unfortunately, Auburn had been ranked seventeenth in the AP poll and eighteenth in the Coaches poll, while USC and Oklahoma started the season ranked number 1 and number 2, and never lost.  Auburn was shut out of the title game, which USC won and subsequently vacated.  At the time, Auburn was named as a national champion by two small-time selectors.  Is that claim illegitimate?

In 2003, the regular college football season ended with three teams in title contention - USC (ranked #1 in the AP and Coaches Poll), LSU (ranked #2 in both) and Oklahoma (ranked #3).  Each team had one loss.  The BCS formula selected LSU and Oklahoma to play in the Sugar Bowl for the national title, while USC played fourth-ranked Michigan in the Rose Bowl.  The AP chose USC as national champ, while the Coaches Poll, which is obligated to select the BCS champion, selected LSU.  Are either of their claims illegitimate?

My point is that even in an era where the "top two" teams are matched up in a BCS title game, the definition of which teams are the top two, and even who won the title, are still controversial.  Good cases can be made for several teams every year, and that was even more true in the days before the BCS, when there was no guarantee that the top-ranked teams would (or even could) play each other.  Without a large-scale playoff system, a large part of every MNC is based on a beauty contest - which games were won by how many points, who did you lose to, what conference are you from, etc.  So, it's fair to say that even in the years that there is a consensus about the champion, there is often a case to be made for someone else.  With that being said, let's take a look at the thirteen "lost championships" and see whether any of them make a fair case for the Tide.

• 1936 - Finished 8-0-1 (chosen by four minor selectors, finished 4th in the AP).  The only blemish on the Tide's record was a 0-0 tie with Tennessee.  The AP (and numerous other selectors) chose Minnesota (7-1-0), who had lost in October to Northwestern, as their national champ, while Pittsburgh (8-1-1 with a loss to Duquesne and a tie versus Fordham's "Seven Blocks of Granite") defeated Washington in the Rose Bowl and was named national champion in ten retroactive polls.  Neither Alabama or Minnesota played in a bowl, as the Rose Bowl was the only bowl game played in this era.  I think a decent case could be made for Alabama here, given the final record of each of the teams.

• 1937 - Finished 9-1-0 (chosen by Bryne, finished 4th in the AP).  Alabama finished the regular season undefeated, but lost the Rose Bowl to Cal.  Pittsburgh was selected by the AP and other selectors after a 8-0-1 season (again marred by a 0-0 tie with Fordham), while California (10-0-1 with a tie versus Washington) was selected by the contemporaneous Dunkel system as well as five other retroactive selectors.

• 1945 - Finished 10-0-0 (three selectors, including the National Championship Foundation (NCF), finished 3rd in the AP).  The NCF is a retroactive selector, and while the NCAA doesn't recognize it as a selector for some reason after the AP poll came into being, it does use them as a recognized selector for pre-1936 championships.  Alabama destroyed every team it played in 1945 and won the Rose Bowl 34-14 over USC.  AP selected Heisman Trophy winner Doc Blanchard's Army (9-0-0) Cadets as national champ.  Frankly, this Alabama squad is one of the the teams I wish Wayne Atcheson had selected for the eleventh national title (see Part I) rather than the 1941 team, as I think this team has a much better claim.

• 1950 - Finished 9-2-0 (chosen by Kirlin, finished 16th in the AP, 17th in UPI).  This one is a head-scratcher.  Alabama lost to Vanderbilt and Tennessee on the season and did not go to a bowl.  Oklahoma (10-1) won both the AP and UPI titles (which were selected before the bowl games at this time) but lost to "Bear" Bryant's Kentucky Wildcats in the Sugar Bowl.  Tennessee, which had beaten both Kentucky and Alabama, but had dropped a game to Mississippi State, wrapped up its 11-1 season with a win over Texas in the Cotton Bowl.  Several selectors retroactively awarded the title to Tennessee.

• 1962 - Finished 10-1-0 (chosen by Montgomery, finished 5th in both polls).  Alabama lost to Georgia Tech in the regular season, but blanked Oklahoma 17-0 in the Orange Bowl.  Other claimants for 1962 include USC (11-0, AP and UPI champs) and Ole Miss (10-0, seven minor selectors).

• 1963 - Finished 9-2-0 (chosen by Koger, finished 8th in the AP, 9th in the UPI).  Losing to both Florida and Auburn, this team defeated Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl.  Texas (11-0-0, defeating Navy in the Cotton Bowl) was the consensus champion.

• 1966 - Finished 11-0-0 (chosen by six selectors including NCF, finished 3rd in both polls).  The 1966 season is a notorious one for 'Bama fans.  Alabama had won both the '64 and '65 title, outscored its opponents 301-44 on the 1966 season, and throttled Nebraska 34-7 in the Sugar Bowl.  In the meantime, #1 Notre Dame and #2 Michigan State, who were both 9-0 and faced off in late November, played each other to a 10-10 tie.  Notre Dame head coach Ara Parseghian famously chose not to go for the win late in the game, electing to kick the field goal to tie the game.  Notre Dame at this point in their history refused to go to any bowl game, and Michigan State was denied a bowl game by Big Ten rules, which didn't allow the same team to represent the conference in the Rose Bowl two years in a row and also didn't allow a conference team to go to any other bowl game.  In addition, some feel that voters purposely denied Alabama the opportunity to win its third wire service (i.e. AP or UPI) national championship in a row, a feat that has still never been accomplished to this day, due to the state's dismal civil rights stance at the time, including its refusal to allow African-Americans to participate in football.  Remember that Alabama governor George Wallace's "stand in the schoolhouse door" had taken place barely three years before.  Regardless, this is the season that Alabama fans universally regard as one where the Tide was cheated out of a deserved title.

• 1974 - Finished 11-1-0 (chosen by the Washington Touchdown Club, finished 5th in the AP, 2nd in the UPI).  The Tide completed the 1974 season undefeated, and like the year before, lost to Notre Dame in a bowl game, this time the Orange.  Southern Cal (10-1-1, UPI, NFF, FWAA) lost to Arkansas in the season opener and tied California.  Oklahoma (11-0-0, AP, NCF) ran the table, but was on NCAA probation and did not go to a bowl.

• 1975 - Finished 11-1-0 (chosen by three minor selectors, finished 3rd in both polls).  The Tide lost the season opener to Missouri 20-7, then won out, including a 13-6 victory over Penn State in the Sugar Bowl.  Oklahoma (11-1-0, including a shocking 23-3 loss at home to Kansas but a 28-27 win over Missouri) went into the Orange Bowl with Michigan ranked third in both polls.  The top two teams (Ohio State and Texas A&M) lost their respective bowl games, and Oklahoma finished at #1 in both polls.

• 1977 - Finished 11-1-0 (chosen by two minor selectors, finished 2nd in both polls).  Alabama's one loss on the season was to Nebraska in Lincoln 31-24 in the second game of the year.  The Crimson Tide crushed the Buckeyes of Ohio State 35-6 in the Sugar Bowl.  Notre Dame won both the AP and UPI titles, finishing 11-1 with a four-touchdown victory in the Cotton Bowl over Texas.  Notre Dame's sole loss was a 20-13 decision to Ole Miss, whom Alabama had beaten 34-13 the week before.  Are you getting the picture on why Alabama fans hate Notre Dame?

• 1980 - Finished 10-2-0 (chosen by two minor selectors, finished 6th in both polls).  The Crimson Tide again was a two-time defending champion and ranked number one, but lost a 6-3 game to Mississippi State to break the team's 28-game winning streak.  'Bama lost 7-0 to Notre Dame two weeks later.  Georgia (12-0-0), led by one of the greatest of all time, Herschel Walker, won the consensus national title.

• 1991 - Finished 11-1-0 (chosen by Annual Football Predictions, finished 5th in both polls).  After losing in week two to the Florida Gators in a 35-0 blowout, the Tide started its longest unbeaten streak of all time, finishing 1991 with a victory over Colorado in the Blockbuster Bowl.  Miami (12-0-0, AP) and Washington (12-0-0, UPI) both finished undefeated and split the title.

• 1994 - Finished 12-1-0 (chosen by Annual Football Predictions, finished 5th in AP, 4th in UPI).  The third-ranked and undefeated Tide lost 24-23 to the sixth-ranked Florida Gators, in one of the greatest SEC Championship Games ever played.  Nebraska (13-0-0) was the consensus champion, winning their first of two in a row.

It is puzzling to me why Wayne Atcheson chose the 1941 season for Alabama to claim a title rather than 1945 or 1966.  My guess is that Army in 1945 was recognized as the power of the era.  After all, during World War II, the Army had a number of great athletes at its disposal, and the Cadets were on their best three-year run ever, winning three national titles and two Heisman trophies.  The 1966 title seems like a more logical choice, given the long-time controversy over the Notre Dame-Michigan State game and the fact that neither team went to a bowl, which was becoming more rare for top teams.*  Also, despite the fact that the Associated Press had made a decision in 1965 (after Alabama won the 1964 national title then lost their bowl game) that they would publish their final poll after the bowl games, in 1966 they reversed that decision and chose Notre Dame as the champion at the end of the regular season.  This seems to add credence to the theory that the goal of the AP voters was to punish Alabama for segregation rather than to solely to award the best team (Alabama had begun the 1966 season at #1 in both polls). 

Anyway, there you have it.  Alabama has fourteen claimed national titles, thirteen of which stand on very solid footing.  Additionally, the Crimson Tide could lay claim to up to thirteen other titles, and while a few of these are iffy, a fair case could easily be made for a few of them, particularly 1936, 1945, 1966, and 1977. I feel pretty certain that Alabama isn't going to back off of the 1941 title claim at this point, as it has memorialized that season in statue and stone, as well as numerous T-shirts, flags, bumper stickers, and whatnot.  However, at least when some ignorant Barner makes a comment about "NASHUNAL CHAMPEANS, PAWWWWLLL," you can rest easy knowing that whatever the number may legitimately be, it is way more than Auburn has.  Furthermore, the Tide isn't the only team that claims more titles than are broadly recognized.  I'll leave you with this list of all teams with at least three recognized titles (to include Auburn).

Team           Titles Recognized      Titles Claimed       Total (All Selectors)
Princeton                  26                                 28                                     31
Yale                          18                                 27                                     31
Alabama                  13                                 14                                     27
Notre Dame              13                                 11                                     23
Michigan                   11                                 11                                     21
USC                         10                                 11                                     22
Pittsburgh                   9                                   9                                      16
Harvard                     8                                   8                                       19
Ohio State                 7                                   7                                       20
Oklahoma                  7                                   7                                       23
Minnesota                  6                                   7                                       10
Pennsylvania               6                                  7                                       21
Army                          5                                  3                                       11
Miami                         5                                  5                                       10
Nebraska                   5                                   5                                       14
California                    4                                  5                                       5
Georgia Tech              4                                  4                                       7
Illinois                         4                                  5                                       6
LSU                           4                                  3                                       11
Michigan State            4                                  6                                       8
Penn State                  4                                  2                                       15
Tennessee                   4                                  6                                       14
Texas                          4                                  4                                       13
Auburn                      3                                  3                                        8
Cornell                       3                                  5                                        5
Florida                       3                                  3                                        5
Lafayette                    3                                  3                                        3

Props to Cal and Cornell for straight up, unabashedly claiming all of theirs, deservedly or not.


*(Note: In fact, the Big Ten abolished the rule that kept Michigan State from repeating its trip to the Rose Bowl in 1972 and the rule that prevented them from accepting an invitation from another bowl prior to the 1975 season.  Notre Dame did not accept a bowl invitation from 1924 to 1969.  The Big Ten and Notre Dame had both, in the mid 1920s, made a decision to decline all bowl offers as a protest against the commercialization of college football.  The Big Ten's ban lasted 26 years, Notre Dame's 45.)

Alabama and the 14 National Championships, Part I

There are two popular memes about Alabama football fans that have pervaded over time.  One is that Alabama fans are, by and large, "sidewalk fans," meaning that the majority of them have never gone to school at Alabama.  The other is that Alabama claims a number of illegitimate national championships.

I have never understood the criticism of fans who didn't attend The University of Alabama.  My parents both went to Alabama, as did a number of my aunts, uncles and cousins.  I was an Alabama football fan from an early age, and even if I had gone to college somewhere else, I feel pretty certain that I would have always had a place in my heart for the Capstone.  Besides, have all Notre Dame fans matriculated at South Bend?  Does everyone who cheers for Boise State hail from Idaho?  I suppose that the criticism is really one that is directed at any fan of a successful team - the so-called front-runners who come out of the woodwork when things are going well.  But does 'Bama hold a monopoly on bandwagon fans?  I doubt it.

Now the national championships.  Alabama claims 14.  Every other fan base in the country knows that's way too many, right?  So what are the disputes and why does Alabama claim the ones that they do?  If fourteen isn't the right number, what is?

As we all know, the NCAA does not name a championship team in FBS (formerly Division I-A) football.  The "mythical national championship" or MNC for more than a century was more or less a beauty contest, based on teams that most likely never played each other.  The BCS, for all its flaws, has largely eliminated the era of numerous national champions.  By pairing the (more-or-less) consensus top two teams in the country in a championship game, other teams rarely jump ahead to claim a share of the title.  But, in the days before every team with a record above .500 made it to a bowl game, this was not the case.  Rather than crowning a champion, bowls were regarded by many as postseason exhibition games.  Notre Dame famously refused to accept a bowl invitation for 45 years, from 1924 to 1969.  The Associated Press (AP) and United Press International (UPI) both initially chose national champs before bowl games were even played (Alabama actually contributed to both services changing their systems). 

According to the College Football Data Warehouse (CFDW) web site (www.cfbdatawarehouse.com), Alabama's football team has been named national champion 27 different seasons by one or more services.  CFDW lists thirteen of those titles as "Recognized."  The NCAA web site lists 12 Alabama championships, relying on nine or ten major sources.  The AP, which started naming a champion in 1936, has awarded the Tide eight titles.  The UPI/Coaches Poll, which dates back to 1950, has selected Alabama seven times.  So, which number is correct?  Let's start by examining the titles that Alabama claims, and why they did so.

This article, which initially appeared in the Birmingham News prior to the 2010 BCS National Championship Game between Alabama and Texas, says that the mid-1980s was when Alabama laid claim to, at the time, 11 national championships.  Wayne Atcheson, who served as SID at Alabama from 1983-1987, added five titles to what was then accepted as six titles, at least according to the 1982 Alabama media guide, the last one published under Coach Paul W. "Bear" Bryant. Bryant's teams won each of those six titles, awarded by the AP and UPI, between 1958 and his retirement in 1982.  Our journey begins with these six.

• 1961 - Finished 11-0-0.  Awarded by AP and UPI and National Football Foundation (NFF).  This one is as ironclad as they come.  The Tide won every game, including the 1962 Sugar Bowl against Arkansas, although Ohio State (8-0-1; did not accept a bowl bid) was crowned by the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA).  The Tide only allowed 25 total points by its opponents all season.

• 1964 - Finished 10-1-0.  Awarded by AP and UPI.  Alabama lost 21-17 against Texas in the Orange Bowl, although 'Bama fans swear that Joe Namath crossed the goal line to score the go-ahead touchdown.  This game caused the AP to change its policy to award championships after the bowl games were played.  Arkansas (11-0-0, FWAA, defeated Nebraska in the Cotton Bowl) and Notre Dame (9-1-0, awarded by NFF but not claimed by Notre Dame, who lost to USC in final regular season game) are recognized by the NCAA as co-champions.

• 1965 - Finished 9-1-1.  Awarded by AP, FWAA and National Championship Foundation (NCF).  The Tide lost their season opener to Georgia and tied Tennessee 7-7 at midseason, then destroyed Nebraska in the Orange Bowl.  Michigan State (10-1-0) was awarded the title by the UPI, NFF and FWAA (tied with Alabama).  The Spartans lost the Rose Bowl to UCLA.

• 1973 - Finished 11-1. Awarded by UPI.  The Tide lost the Sugar Bowl 24-23 to Notre Dame, in what many hail as the greatest bowl game ever played.  After this game, UPI changed their championship methodology to select after the bowl games were played.  Notre Dame (11-0-0) was crowned by all the other major selectors.

• 1978 - Finished 11-1.  Awarded by AP, FWAA, NFF, NCF.  USC defeated 'Bama 24-14 in the third game of the season, and then lost to Arizona two weeks later.  Alabama won the legendary 1979 Sugar Bowl over then-number one Penn State.  The Trojans finished 12-1 and defeated Michigan in the Rose Bowl.  USC was selected as champ by UPI and NCF (Tied with Alabama).

• 1979 - Finished 12-0.  Consensus champion.  Alabama defeated Lou Holtz's Arkansas team in the Sugar Bowl, but the closest contest was a 25-18 victory over Auburn in the Iron Bowl, which the Tide came from behind in the fourth quarter to win.

Okay, those seem fairly straightforward to me.  While some misguided individuals may argue that the 1965 and 1973 championships are something less than legitimate due to the bowl losses, the wire service titles are recognized by everyone.  Before we get to the five added titles, we might as well get three more out of the way that no one seriously disputes.

• 1992 - Finished 13-0-0. Consensus champion.  'Bama defeated top-ranked Miami in dominating fashion in the Sugar Bowl, breaking a 29-game winning streak by the defending national champs.  The Tide also won the first-ever SEC Championship Game over Florida to make it to the title game.

• 2009 - Finished 14-0-0.  BCS Champion.  Alabama defeated Texas 37-21 after knocking the Longhorns' starting quarterback, Colt McCoy, out of the game early.  The Crimson Tide defeated six ranked teams, including defending national champ and number one Florida, during the season.

• 2011 - Finished 12-1-0.  BCS Champion.  After losing at home in overtime to the number one team in the country, Alabama got a rematch with the LSU Tigers in the title game and blanked them 21-0.

So, now we're at nine national championships, and all of them seem pretty fair to me.  So let's dive into the last five that Alabama claims.  The first question is, why were those titles added in the first place?

According to the previously-mentioned Birmingham News article, Taylor Watson - the curator of the Bryant Museum - said that the 1986 media guide was the first to mention the five additional titles.  What you may not remember about 1986 is that Alabama began a two-season home-and-home series with Notre Dame that year.  The Fighting Irish claim 11 national championships, but that number was ten at the time (the Irish later won the 1988 title).  It's clear in hindsight that Wayne Atcheson went back over the Tide's history to find enough titles to edge out Notre Dame's ten.  Hence, Alabama's number went to eleven national championships.  So, what about those other five?

• 1925 - Finished 10-0-0.  Most disputes about Alabama's national titles start with the fact that the title selectors who are recognized today didn't exist in 1925, so while NCF, Helms, Houlgate and the College Football Researchers Association (CFRA), among others, all awarded the Tide the 1925 title, they did so retroactively.  However, that doesn't mean that the Tide wasn't the best team in the country.  In these early days when the Rose Bowl was the only bowl game in America, Alabama was the first team from the South to be invited to the game.  The Rose Bowl attempted to match the top team in the East and with the top team in the West, and Alabama played the champion of the Pacific Coast Conference (the predecessor to today's Pac-12), Washington.  The Tide won 20-19, and was greeted with congratulatory crowds in every Southern train station on the return trip.  Furthermore, this newspaper article from the next day makes it clear that the game was regarded as the national championship at the time.  The 1925 Dartmouth Indians (8-0-0) were also recognized (retroactively, I might add) as national champions by a couple of selectors, although they are not recognized by the NCAA.

• 1926 - Finished 9-0-1.  Alabama again finished the regular season undefeated and was invited to the Rose Bowl to play Stanford.  The game ended in a 7-7 tie, and as such, Alabama and Stanford shared the 1926 national championship awarded by Helms and NCF, while CFRA awarded the title solely to the Tide.

• 1930 - Finished 10-0-0.  The Tide's third Rose Bowl trip ended in a 24-0 thrashing of Washington State, and the CFRA retroactively awarded them the title.  Notre Dame, which refused the Rose Bowl invitation and finished 10-0-0, also shared the national title, being awarded by the NCF and Helms (also retroactive).

• 1934 - Finished 10-0-0.  Again Alabama traveled to Pasadena to face Stanford and defeated the Cardinal 29-13.  A number of selectors retroactively selected the Tide as national champs, although the three that the NCAA chooses to recognize (NCF, Helms, and CFRA) retroactively selected Big Ten champion Minnesota, who finished 8-0-0 (no bowl game).

• 1941 - Finished 9-2-0.  This is the title that is the hardest to justify.  By this time, the AP had begun selecting national champions, and Alabama finished 20th in the poll.  In addition, the Tide didn't even win the SEC, losing to eventual champion Mississippi State (in their only SEC title to date) as well as Vanderbilt.  While the Tide was selected as a national champion by the Houlgate system, it's hard to see why.

 There you have it.  I believe a strong case can be made for every title that Alabama claims, except for the 1941 championship.  That one is pretty sketchy, and clearly that is where the CFDW gets the thirteen "recognized" titles.  On the other hand, there's nothing to say that a school can't claim a title that someone awards them, no matter how dubious.  So, that's how Alabama got to fourteen.  But what about those other thirteen titles that the CFDW lists, but that Alabama doesn't claim?  Are any of those title claims legitimate?  We'll take a look at the thirteen "lost championships" in Part II.

SEC Football Week Eight: The Rundown

After eight weeks of football, we know a few things.  We know Florida is back, and has a clear path to winning the SEC East.  We know Alabama's defense is very good.  We know that despite quarterback problems, LSU can run the ball and is good enough on defense to beat just about anyone.  And we know that, with all other things being equal, turning the ball over multiple times is virtually guaranteed to lose football games for you.  Let's start the Rundown!

1.  Turnovers are Bad, Part I.

Texas A&M had the perfect setup to win Saturday against LSU: an early game, at home, with LSU looking ahead to a bye week and Alabama and coming off a tough victory over South Carolina.  The Aggies looked unstoppable on the first drive and led 12-0 midway through the second quarter.  Then they decided to be generous and give LSU an interception and a fumble to close out the half, both of which led to touchdowns for the Tigers.  By the end of the game, A&M had turned the ball over five times, and despite out-gaining LSU by nearly 100 yards, having advantages in first downs, penalties and time of possession, and outplaying the Tigers for most of the game, LSU generated enough offense to escape College Station with a 24-19 win.  Turnovers can make good teams look bad.

2.  Turnovers are Bad, Part II.

If you only saw the 44-11 score of the Florida-South Carolina game, you might be tempted to think that the Gators had completely devastated the Gamecock defense, which had looked so good in previous weeks.  In reality, the Gators had a 21-6 lead at halftime despite only gaining 29 yards of total offense.  Carolina's Connor Shaw fumbled at the two yard line on the first play of the game from scrimmage, setting Florida up for their first TD.  Later, Ace Sanders fumbled on a punt return deep in Carolina territory, giving the Gators another opportunity for a quick score.  Finally, on the ensuing kickoff, Damiere Byrd coughed up the return, which was pick up and taken by Florida's Chris Johnson nearly to the goal line.  Neither team gained over 200 yards for the entire game, but the Gamecocks' four turnovers put the game out of reach against the stingy Gator defense.  Championship teams protect the football, which is one of the reasons Florida is likely going to Atlanta and South Carolina is not.

3.  Coaching Hot Seat, Part I.

The last time Auburn started 1-6 was 1952.  Dwight Eisenhower was elected to his first term as president, the U.S. was mired in a war in Korea, Elizabeth II began her 60-year reign as monarch in the United Kingdom, and the first hydrogen bomb was detonated.  Auburn head coach Gene Chizik would not even be born for another nine years.  I have to give Chizik credit.  He has been a once-in-a-lifetime coach at Auburn, bringing them both their first national championship in over 50 years and their worst start in 60.  It remains to be seen whether whoever is in charge at Auburn will allow the goodwill built from the former to outweigh the potentially devastating fallout from the latter, but it's obvious that Auburn's team, coaching staff and program are in complete disarray.  In that 1952 season, Auburn finished winless in the SEC.  After having lost to both Ole Miss and Vanderbilt in consecutive weeks, and with only Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama remaining, the Tigers look very unlikely to win a conference game, go to a bowl game, or avoid a losing season.  You know what other bad thing for Auburn happened 60 years ago?  Nick Saban was born.

4.  Coaching Hot Seat, Part II.

It wasn't bad enough for Derek Dooley that he was on crutches on the sideline following hip surgery and that Alabama was en route to a 44-13 demolishing of his team.  Peyton Manning, Phil Fulmer and the rest of Tennessee's 1997 SEC Championship team were on hand to be honored at Saturday's game and to serve as a not-so-subtle reminder of how far the Volunteers have fallen.  Tennessee's recent woes aren't quite as historical as Auburn's.  After all, the Vols' 0-4 start in SEC play falls right in line with the last two seasons (0-6 to begin 2011, finished 1-7; 0-5 in 2010, finished 3-5).  The problem is that every one of those seasons came under Dooley, who still hasn't beaten a ranked team in his tenure at Tennessee.  You have to go back to 1910 to find a Tennessee coach with a worse winning percentage than Dooley, who is 14-18 in his three years at UT and 31-38 overall, and he has the worst record by far of anyone who lasted more than two years.  The only reason that Dooley's status is still uncertain is that Tennessee's athletic department is in a hole financially - partially because they are still paying Phil Fulmer not to coach and partially because fans are staying away in droves.  What is clear at this point is that Tennessee is closer to Missouri, Vanderbilt and Kentucky in the East than they are to Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.

5.  The Good.

(2) Florida 44, (7) South Carolina 11

South Carolina's championship hopes came to a ignominious end as the Gators relied on their defense and special teams to propel them to their seventh win.  Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel only had 93 yards passing, but threw for four touchdowns on the day.

(6) LSU 24, (18) Texas A&M 19

Stop me if you've heard this before: High-flying offense and Heisman-candidate quarterback with massive numbers finally plays a team with a decent defense and all-of-sudden the big numbers go away, the superhero is exposed as only human, and the team with the defense walks away with a win.  What happened to Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel is the same old story that seems to surprise people year after year.  Offensive numbers might win Heisman trophies, and I wouldn't be shocked if "Johnny Football" snags one in the coming years, but defense has, and always will, win championships, especially in the SEC.

(1) Alabama 44, Tennessee 13

AJ McCarron showed the Tennessee defense why stacking the line to stop the run is a losing proposition against Alabama this season as he threw for a career-high 306 yards and 4 touchdowns.  McCarron, who has not thrown an interception all season, had an otherworldy 254.1 quarterback rating in the game and the Tide scored 30+ points in its seventh game in a row to start the season, which is a school record.  Add that to the fact that Alabama leads the nation in total defense, scoring defense, run defense and pass efficiency defense, and you have a pretty lethal combination.

(12) Mississippi State 45, Middle Tennessee State 3

I know at least one person who thought this might be a close game (I'm looking at you, Matt), but State cruised to an easy victory on the arm of quarterback Tyler Russell, who threw for three touchdowns.

6.  The Bad.

(11) Georgia 29, Kentucky 24

If South Carolina's blowout of Georgia and subsequent losses didn't tell you enough about the quality of this Bulldogs squad, the fact that they had to come from behind three times against a pitifully bad Kentucky team should.

7.  The Ugly

Vanderbilt 17, Auburn 13

Before the season a lot of people gave Vandy coach James Franklin a chance to be competitive in the SEC East this year.  While the Commodores (3-4) do still have a shot at a bowl game, Franklin did his best to give the game away to a historically terrible Auburn team.  While Auburn had failed to drive the ball in the first quarter, two poor decisions by Franklin to go for it on fourth down in the second quarter led to ten points for the Tigers and kept them in the contest for far longer than their offensive production warranted.  Then, when the game was on the line, Franklin seemed hesitant to give the ball to Zac Stacy, who became the 'Dores all-time leading rusher, until it was almost too late.  Stacy, who had 169 yards on 27 carries and a touchdown on the day, appeared to be agitated as the Commodores kept throwing incomplete passes and not using very much time, then punting the ball back to Auburn, all while nursing a four-point lead.  Franklin finally gave Stacy a chance, and while trying to put the team on his shoulders he ended up fumbling the ball and giving the Tigers one last chance to win.  Against an average team, this would have been a loss.

8.  Games to Watch in Week Nine

(2) Florida vs. (10) Georgia in Jacksonville

CBS and ESPN will do their best to play up this game as a contest for the SEC East title and that the outcome of this game determines who goes to Atlanta.  Don't buy it.  The winner of the East was determined Saturday when Florida (7-0) blew out South Carolina.  Georgia (6-1) is soft, and the soft schedule has only served to make them look like a contender on paper.  I expect a double-digit win for the Gators and a game that is over by halftime. 

(11) Mississippi State at (1) Alabama

I give the Bulldogs (7-0) credit for their undefeated record, but the best team that they have played is probably Tennessee. The next three opponents for MSU are Alabama, Texas A&M, and LSU, so we'll get to see what this team is really made of, and frankly, I expect three losses.  The biggest question for 'Bama (7-0) is whether or not they can focus on State with LSU coming in two weeks.  So far, this team has been the most focused Alabama squad in my memory and has not played down to an opponent yet.

Tennessee at (13) South Carolina

I expect Carolina (6-2) to be down somewhat after having missed out on their goals for the season, and Tennessee (3-4) to be desperate to win.  Really, that's the only way the Vols have a chance.  Looks for the Gamecocks to make it three in a row over Tennessee.

Ole Miss at Arkansas

The Razorbacks (3-4) started the season as badly as any team could, but appeared to recover somewhat with wins over Auburn and Kentucky.  Ole Miss (4-3) has already doubled their win total from last year and gave Alabama arguably their toughest game this season.  While this game isn't for much more than pride, a shot at fourth place in the SEC West, and another step toward bowl eligibility, I think it will be intriguing to see whether Arkansas has truly recovered or whether the Rebels have overtaken them.

SEC Football Week Seven: The Rundown

We're already past the halfway point in the 2012 college football season.  In the Southeastern Conference three undefeated teams remain, while another four have only one loss.  All are still in the championship hunt.  Even Kentucky is still mathematically bowl eligible, at least for one more week.  This is the part of the season where attrition and the schedule separate the contenders from the pretenders.  Let's start the Rundown!

1.  All is Right with the World Again.

November 26, 1964.  On that day, nearly half a century ago, Alabama defeated Auburn 21-14 and drew even with the Tigers in the all-time series with 14 wins and 14 losses.  Since that date, the Crimson Tide has not had a losing record against any team in the Southeastern Conference, that is, until the Missouri Tigers officially joined the SEC on July 1, 2012.  To be sure, Mizzou had only played Alabama three times historically, but they held a 1-2 edge over the Tide going into Saturday's 42-10 win at Faurot Field.  So, mark October 13, 2012 as the date that Alabama righted the ship and re-established itself as the preeminent team in the nation's preeminent conference.

2.  Missed Opportunity.

On the heels of last week's 35-7 blowout of Georgia, South Carolina looked like a world beater.  Unfortunately for the Old Ball Coach, LSU is no Georgia.  The Tigers ran all over the Gamecocks defense, outgained Carolina 406 yards to 211, and scored more points (23) than they have in any other SEC game so far this season.  While Carolina is a good team, and a formidable opponent at home, great teams have to be able to win on the road in the SEC.  Spurrier has still never beaten LSU since taking over at Columbia, SC, and the Gamecocks missed another opportunity to stake its claim as the best team in the conference.  With Florida up next on the schedule, Carolina needs to recover quickly to have a chance to return to Atlanta in December.

3.  Will Auburn Go Winless in the Conference?

No one expected Auburn to be a great team this year, but the schedule looked to be fairly negotiable before the season began.  Now, the Tigers are 1-5 with their one victory coming in overtime against Louisiana-Monroe.  The Tigers didn't look terrible against Ole Miss - the Rebels led 24-20 going into the fourth quarter - before the wheels came off.  Auburn has been outscored 65-3 in the fourth quarter this season, which hints at depth and an inability to finish games.  The Tigers have Vanderbilt in Nashville next week.  While the Commodores won't be an easy out, if Auburn doesn't get a win there they are unlikely to win a game in the SEC and Gene Chizik's job is in serious jeopardy.

4.  SEC West is Not Dead Yet.

The media storyline last week was that, with Florida's win over LSU and South Carolina's dominant performance over Georgia, the SEC East had jumped back ahead of the SEC West, which was basically just Alabama & everyone else.  Granted, Auburn has been abysmal and Arkansas has recovered from freefall by beating the two worst teams in the league.  However, Mississippi State has continued to win, and made a real statement last night against Tennessee.  The Bulldogs are likely to be undefeated when they stroll into Tuscaloosa on October 27th.  Texas A&M has one of the best young quarterbacks in college football, have won every game since a close opening loss to Florida, and just eliminated the last potential BCS-buster on the road in a shootout.  And reports of LSU's demise have been greatly exaggerated.  As long as the Tigers' defense stays healthy, they have a shot in every game they play.  While three teams are still vying for the SEC East title, four teams control their destiny in the West.  Let's wait a few more weeks before we pull the plug.

5.  The Good

(9) LSU 23, (3) South Carolina 21

Freshman tailback Jeremy Hill led the Tigers with 124 yards on 17 carries and two touchdowns, wearing down Carolina's defense and bringing enough offense to give the Tigers a hard-fought win.  Hill's 50-yard TD with 5:03 left in the fourth quarter broke the game open and ran Les Miles' record in night games at Tiger Stadium to 36-1.

(1) Alabama 42, Missouri 10

For the second time this year, Alabama faced a once-formidable offense without its first-team quarterback.  Alabama has outscored those opponents 94-10.  The Tide outgained Mizzou 533 yards to 129 and seemed to be challenged more by a driving rainstorm and a nearly 40-minute lightning delay than by the Tigers.

(4) Florida 31, Vanderbilt 17

This looked to be the prototypical "trap game" for Florida, falling as it did between the LSU victory last week and the pending South Carolina matchup.  The Gators haven't lost to Vandy since 1988, and despite sleepwalking through the first half, quarterback/tailback Jeff Driskel's 177 yards and three touchdowns on the ground ensured that Florida came out on top.

(19) Mississippi State 41, Tennessee 31

The Bulldogs were 5-0 coming into the game with Tennessee, but two of those wins were against the two worst teams in the SEC (Auburn, Kentucky), two were against Sun Belt teams, and one was over an FCS school.  Needless to say, Mississippi State had something to prove against the Volunteers.  Tennessee hadn't beaten a ranked team in the Derek Dooley era, and were still looking for a signature win.  At the end of the day, State is riding its best start since 1999 and Tennessee fell to 3-3 on the season with top-ranked Alabama coming to Knoxville next weekend.

(22) Texas A&M 59, (23) Louisiana Tech 57

The Aggies jumped out to a 34-7 lead, then had to hold on as the Bulldogs, who came into the game undefeated, came roaring back.  Louisiana Tech had an opportunity to tie the game at 46-all in the fourth quarter, but failed on the two-point conversion, which eventually turned out to be the margin of victory for A&M.  Johnny Manziel broke his two-week-old SEC total offense record with 576 total yards (181 rushing, 395 passing) and scored six touchdowns.

6.  The Bad

Arkansas 49, Kentucky 7

How bad is Kentucky?  Against an Arkansas team with wins over Auburn and Jacksonville State, the Wildcats allowed 49 points and 533 yards in a game that was called with 5:08 remaining in the third quarter due to lightning.  At this point, the early win over Kent State appears to have been overachieving.

7.  The Ugly

Ole Miss 41, Auburn 20

The Rebels jumped out to an early 14-0 lead and then gave Auburn arguably its best quarter of football all season, allowing the Tigers to drive to two second-quarter touchdowns and recover an onside kick that led to a field goal and a 17-14 lead.  Hugh Freeze didn't learn from last week's bonehead decision to attempt a fourth-and-one conversion run from the shotgun in Ole Miss territory, and was just as successful this time.  Congratulations to the Rebels for breaking an ugly 16-game SEC losing skid.  While they are much improved over last season, this team will be lucky to win another one this year.

8. Games to Watch in Week Eight

(9) South Carolina at (3) Florida

The road doesn't get any easier for the Gamecocks as they travel to The Swamp to face the Gators.  Florida seems to be improving every week, while Carolina has to win to get to Atlanta without outside help.  The Gators have dropped the last two to Spurrier.  I don't think the Gamecocks will make it three in a row.

(6) LSU at (20) Texas A&M

The SEC's most prolific offense at home against the vaunted LSU defense.  Can "Johnny Football" go off on the Tigers' D?  Can Zach Mettenberger and Jeremy Hill produce enough offense to keep up with A&M?  I think that the early kickoff, the 12th Man, and the letdown after playing both Florida and South Carolina in previous weeks will impede LSU enough to give A&M the upset.

(1) Alabama at Tennessee

On paper, this looks like an easy win, but this storied rivalry has seen a number of upset wins over the years.  The game is in Neyland Stadium and the Volunteers are desperate for a win.  Tyler Bray and his receiving corps, led by Justin Hunter and Cordarelle Patterson, will be the toughest test for Alabama's defense so far this season.  I expect the Tide to pull out a late victory, but as Lee Corso is fond of saying, it will be "closer than the experts think."

SEC Football Week Six: The Rundown

With the bye week for Alabama, I was able to watch at least a little bit of every SEC game as well as parts of other contests.  Even without the Tide playing, it was a strong weekend of college football.  At the end of the day, we are down to four undefeated teams in the Southeastern Conference, and at least two of them are surprise contenders.  Let's start the rundown!

1.  The King is Dead/Long Live the King.

One of the easiest media picks in the offseason was that LSU and Alabama would be back atop the SEC and that LSU would repeat as SEC champion with most of their defense returning and a brand-new (better) quarterback.  Well, (3) LSU's defense is still very good, but the offense is downright lethargic.  The Tigers only converted one third down in Saturday's 14-6 loss to (10) Florida and garnered only 200 yards of offense.  Once the Gators scored their second touchdown, no one except die hard LSU fans thought that the Tigers had any chance of driving the field to win.  Florida didn't necessarily light up the scoreboard, but they have consistently played good defense and adjusted well at halftime against their opponents.  The Gators have established themselves again at the top of the SEC East.  Whether they can beat both South Carolina and Georgia is still a question, but for now the Gators are back on top.

2.  South Carolina is a national championship contender/Georgia - not so much.

Count me as one of those who was never sold on the Georgia Bulldogs.  The other easy media pick was that the Bulldogs had an easy schedule that didn't require them to play Alabama, LSU or Arkansas, just like last year, and that they would return to the SEC Championship Game.  Unfortunately for Mark Richt, you actually have to play the games to win them, and that schedule looks a lot tougher today than it did in July.  Sixth-ranked South Carolina's offense drove the field immediately on the Bulldogs, the crowd was as loud and raucous as you could imagine for a primetime game between two top-ten teams with ESPN GameDay on site, and by the end of the first quarter, the game was over.  The Gamecocks dominated on both sides of the ball, and made (5) Georgia look like an also-ran.

3.  Arkansas stops the bleeding/Auburn opens another vein.

No team in the country had a worse September than the Arkansas Razorbacks.  After winning their first game against FCS opponent Jacksonville State, the 'Backs went on a catastrophic slide, one so bad it's difficult to name the low point.  Many, including me, have accused the team of giving up when the chips were down.  They needed a win against Auburn badly.  Unfortunately for the Tigers, they needed this win too.  September wasn't quite as bad as Arkansas' only in the sense that Auburn fans didn't have high expectations to begin with.  Tiger fans could console themselves in the bye week that they had a chance to win against the second-ranked LSU Tigers and might have looked slightly better on offense.  Also, they had one of the worst defenses in the country coming to their house to improve against.  At the end of the day, the Auburn offense was in shambles, playing three quarterbacks who were sacked eight times and turning the ball over five times.  Arkansas saves the season, at least for this week, with a 24-7 win.

4.  Mississippi State is quietly 5-0 for the first time since 1999.

While the Bulldogs have admittedly played a light schedule, they have done what they needed to do every week and have taken care of business.  With the 27-14 win over Kentucky, Mississippi State stands alone with Alabama atop the SEC West.  I'm not ready to put Bully up there with Alabama, Carolina and Florida, but after next week's match-up with Tennessee I think we'll have a much better idea of how good this team is.  The great thing about college football is that any week you can have a NC State over Florida State, a Vandy over Missouri, or an Iowa State over TCU.  Don't count the Bulldogs out yet.

5.  The Good.

(10) Florida 14, (4) LSU 6

Mike Gillislee carried the rock 34 times against LSU for 146 yards and two touchdowns.  Early yardage was difficult to come by, but LSU's inability to drive the ball consistently eventually wore down the defense.  The team that rushes for the most yardage in this game has won every year since Les Miles took over at LSU.  Florida establishes itself as a strong contender in the East while LSU realistically has to win out to make it back to the SEC Championship Game.

(6) South Carolina 35, (5) Georgia 7

Georgia's star rushing duo of Gurley and Marshall were the story entering the game, but Marcus Lattimore rushed for 104 yards and USC nearly doubled Georgia's offensive output as the Bulldogs were completely dominated from the outset.  South Carolina at Florida on October 20 looks to be epic, but both teams have a few hurdles to top before they get there.

(20) Mississippi State 27, Kentucky 14

State dominates the hapless Wildcats in a game that wasn't as close as the score indicated.  Bulldog quarterback Tyler Russell is improving every week, but the first real test approaches.

Texas A&M 30, Ole Miss 27

Both teams had a chance to win this one, and it was back and forth the whole game.  Ole Miss coach Hugh freeze made a bonehead decision to go for a fourth and one deep in their own territory late in the game and didn't make it, giving A&M an opportunity for the go-ahead score.  The Aggies, after falling to Florida early, are 4-1 and gaining confidence.  Kevin Sumlin has to be an early candidate for SEC Coach of the Year.

6.  The Bad

Arkansas 24, Auburn 7

Yeah, the Razorbacks won, and they needed it.  But let's not kid ourselves.  Both of these teams are hilariously bad.

7. The Ugly

Vanderbilt 19, Missouri 14

Missouri signal caller James Franklin left the game early with a knee injury.  Vandy didn't even get a first down until near halftime.  The Tigers missed a PAT and gave up a safety on a bobbled punt attempt.  Props to the Commodores for the win, but this one was hard to watch.

8.  Games to Watch in Week Seven

South Carolina at LSU

The Gamecocks played their best game of the year (maybe one of their best ever) against Georgia.  Can they avoid the letdown on the road in Baton Rouge?  Will LSU rebound from the tough loss at Florida?  I think USC is a better team, but night games at Tiger Stadium are notoriously tough.  I think it's easier for defenses to recover from the big game, and LSU has shown me nothing good on offense.  I'm picking Cocky to win.

Auburn at Ole Miss

No game for Auburn is a gimme, and Ole Miss is looking better every week.  I think the Rebels will pick up their first SEC win since 2010.

Tennessee at Mississippi State

This is an intriguing game.  Tennessee head coach Derek Dooley cannot lose this game if he wants to stay around another year.  State is probably good enough to pull off the win, but I am leaning toward the Vols due to the desperation factor.

Alabama at Missouri

Alabama's second road test of the season doesn't appear to be much of a challenge, especially since Vanderbilt just won in Columbia.  However, Missouri happens to be the only SEC team against which the Crimson Tide has a losing record (1-2 in three games in the sixties and seventies) and it's important to go ahead and take care of that.  Expect the Tide to roll.

Texas A&M at Louisiana Tech

This game was originally scheduled for the first weekend of the season, but was postponed due to Hurricane Isaac.  In the meantime, La Tech is 5-0 and sporting wins against Conference-USA (Houston, Rice), the B1G (Illinois), the ACC (Virginia) and the Mountain West (UNLV).  The Bulldogs will start getting serious attention if they beat the Aggies.  I suspect the Cinderella season comes to an end at the hands of "Johnny Football."

SEC Football Week Five: The Rundown

I thought this was supposed to be a defensive league.  Week Five in the SEC saw lots of yards and points as well as a few lackluster performances from the top teams that let inferior opponents hang around too long.  Let's start the rundown.

1.  Georgia defense is whole again, and not so good.

Suspended defensive stars Bacarri Rambo (FS) and Alec Ogletree (LB) finally returned from suspension for  the fifth-ranked Bulldogs' 51-44 win over Tennessee.  I keep hearing people (like CBS's Gary Danielson) claim that Georgia's defense is as good as Alabama's and LSU's.  Those people are wrong.  Just because Georgia has a bunch of great-looking athletes who are big and fast doesn't mean that their defense is schematically sound.  Tennessee was able to run up the middle on the Bulldogs and consistently had receivers open in the Georgia secondary.  If Tyler Bray had been more accurate in a couple of spots (or had his receivers not dropped several passes, including a sure touchdown) we'd be talking about whether or not this was a signature win for Derek Dooley.  Could Georgia have been looking ahead to South Carolina?  Maybe so, but any defense that gives up 44 points and nearly 500 yards is not good.  End of story.

2.  Hugh Freeze is having a positive effect on Ole Miss.

Don't get ahead of me here - Ole Miss is not a good team yet.  However, the Rebels have shown dramatic improvement since last season's 2-10 debacle.  While top-ranked Alabama had the decidedly superior team in last night's 33-14 victory, Ole Miss were able to drive the ball on Alabama, take a brief lead, and compete for the entire game, something no other team has done this season.  Contrast the Rebels to the hapless Arkansas Razorbacks.  Who would've thought that by Week Five, Ole Miss would not only have a better record than Arkansas, but has played better.  I'll be interested to see how they fare against the same Texas A&M team that just hammered the Hogs.

3.  What is going on with LSU?

The Bayou Bengals performed poorly against Auburn last week, and were frankly lucky to come away with a win.  Any Tigers' fans expecting that game to be a wakeup call had to be disappointed with what they saw last night with LSU's 38-22 win over Towson, an FCS school.  Towson actually had a second-quarter 9-7 lead before the Tigers pulled away.  LSU has dropped in the polls from number two to number four in the last two weeks and going into the showdown in Gainesville this week there are a number of question marks for this team.  Can the Zach Mettenberger perform in a hostile environment against a good team defense?  Can LSU play with intensity?  How good are the Tigers, really?  We'll know more in a week.

4.  Another week, another Arkansas low.

In the wake of Texas A&M's blowout of Arkansas, I am looking over the Razorbacks schedule, and there are no gimme wins left.  Even Kentucky has put up more fight than Arkansas has in their last few games.  If Arkansas doesn't right the ship against Auburn next week, and I highly doubt that they can, I think it's unlikely they can finish above .500.

5.  The Good.

(1) Alabama 33, Ole Miss 14

The Tide closed out the first half of its season with a number of things to work on - inconsistent run blocking, failure to finish drives with touchdowns rather than field goals, and a tendency to let off the gas once the opponent is down.  However, Alabama goes into the bye week ranked number one, outscoring opponents 40-7 on average, and with a schedule that looks a lot more manageable than just a couple of weeks ago.

(6) South Carolina 38, Kentucky 17

The Gamecocks forgot for a half of football that they actually had to beat Kentucky to make next week's game against Georgia really meaningful.  Credit the Wildcats for actually coming to play in what has been an abysmal season so far - they led South Carolina 17-7 at the half, before the Gamecocks scored 31 unanswered points to put them away.

Texas A&M 58, Arkansas 10

The Aggies won their first SEC game and got a little bit of redemption against the Razorbacks for last year's 42-38 come-from-behind victory.  Ole Miss may actually provide a better gauge for how good this A&M team can be, as Arkansas is just horrible.

(5) Georgia 51, Tennessee 44

I struggled over whether this was a good performance or an ugly one, but the Bulldogs are 5-0 and atop the SEC East (along with Florida and South Carolina), so I'll give them the nod due to the strong offensive showing.

6.  The Bad.

All the bad losses this week were to other SEC teams and Auburn didn't play.

7.  The Ugly.

(3) LSU 38, Towson 22

Really?  An FCS school two touchdowns behind the third-best team in the country?  

Missouri 21, UCF 16

The Knights actually outgained Mizzou on offense and had 27 first downs to the Tigers' 16, but a punt return for a touchdown provided the difference in the game.  Still, a win is a win, and the Tigers needed this road win to build some confidence after getting smashed last week.

8. Games to Watch in Week Six

(4) LSU at (10) Florida

I've got a sneaking suspicion that Florida might have LSU's number this year.  The Gators have the best defense that LSU has seen so far this season, and at home in the Swamp, I predict that Florida will pull off the upset.

(5) Georgia at (6) South Carolina

Georgia and South Carolina have looked fantastic in some spots and mediocre in others this season, but they both come in undefeated.  Carolina has the better defense, but Georgia's offense is stronger.  This is a tossup in my mind, but I'm going with the Gamecocks due to the night atmosphere at Williams-Bryce, and the fact that I chose them to win the East in preseason.

SEC Football Week Four: The Rundown

Whew!  We're already through one-third of the college football season, and the top half of the SEC is starting to separate itself from the bottom.  Week Four saw a team in free fall, a closer contest than expected, and a team that is gaining confidence and leading the division.  Let's start the rundown.

1. Florida is establishing itself as a serious contender in the East.

Florida went on the road and won tough games against Texas A&M and Tennessee in weeks two and three, and it would've been easy to coast into Saturday's game at home against lowly Kentucky with a lackluster performance.  Instead the Gators hammered the hapless Wildcats 38-0.  The fact that Florida beat Kentucky isn't very surprising - in fact, it was the Gators' 26th consecutive win in the series - but what made Gator fans happy was the balanced attack (203 yards passing, 200 rushing) and the complete domination of the Wildcats on both sides of the ball.  Along with South Carolina and Georgia, who both took care of business, the Gators have staked their claim as the class of the East, and it will be interesting to see who rises to the top.

2. Zach Mettenberger looks like a first-year quarterback.
Many college football prognosticators proclaimed that LSU's offensive issues from last year were all resolved now that Mettenberger has taken over the role of signal caller for the Tigers.  At least one ESPN pundit put him on his Heisman Watch list before the season even started, although he had only played a few downs in garbage time last season.  To be sure, Mettenberger looked good coasting through the early teams on the Tigers' schedule, but Saturday's game against Auburn was a rude awakening.  Despite the fact that LSU won 12-10, Mettenberger had two first half fumbles that helped Auburn stay in the game, missed a number of open receivers, and generally looked average against his first SEC defense on the road.  Mettenberger finished 15/27 for just 169 yards, and failed repeatedly to drive LSU in the second half when the game was in jeopardy.  Auburn's offense was anemic at best, garnering less than 200 yards total, but it almost didn't matter, and an early safety by the defense ended up being the difference.  Without some major improvement, LSU will be lucky to make it to November 3rd undefeated.

3. Arkansas has collapsed.
Clearly, the problems with the Razorbacks weren't solved with Tyler Wilson back on the field.  While Wilson threw for 419 yards and three touchdowns, he also tossed two interceptions.  Arkansas's defense gave up over 500 yards to Rutgers while the 'Backs rushing game garnered only 73.  It was clear that the team didn't give up this week: Wilson hit an 80-yard touchdown midway through the fourth quarter and looked to tie it up with a two-point conversion that ultimately failed, but unfortunately, John L. Smith appears to be phoning it in at this point.  For a team that entered the season thinking about an SEC title, it looks less and less like Arkansas will even manage to make it to a bowl game.

4. The Good

(7) South Carolina 31, Missouri 10

South Carolina and Connor Shaw finally looked like the team that closed out 2011 against Nebraska, overpowering Missouri at home.  The Tigers have obviously run out of gas in their first two conference games, confirming for many that Mizzou will have difficulty competing with the best in the SEC due to size and talent.

(1) Alabama 40, Florida Atlantic 7

Some day, a team will challenge Alabama for more than a half of football, but it was not this day.

(5) Georgia 48, Vanderbilt 3

Complete domination in all phases of the game by the Bulldogs, who seem to have hit their stride.  Vanderbilt, on the other hand, has taken a step backward.

(14) Florida 38, Kentucky 0

Florida is improving every week into a real SEC title game contender.  Joker Phillips' run at Kentucky is all but over now, as the Wildcats have only one likely win remaining on the schedule.

Texas A&M 70, South Carolina State 14

The Aggies, behind five touchdowns by quarterback Johnny Manziel (three passing, two rushing) got on track offensively, and appear to be peaking for next week's showdown with Arkansas.

Ole Miss 39, Tulane 0

The Rebels exploded for 26 first quarter points to hammer the Tulane Green Wave, recovering quickly from last week's loss to Texas.

Mississippi State 30, South Alabama 10

The Bulldogs have sleepwalked their way to 4-0, their best start since 1999.

5. The Bad

Rutgers 35, Arkansas 26

It just keeps getting worse for the Razorbacks, who are going to struggle to win six games.  At this point you hope that the players make it safely through this debacle.

6. The Ugly

Tennessee 47, Akron 26

This game was tied 23-23 midway through the third quarter before the Volunteers finally pulled away.  That might be blamed on a hangover from the Florida loss or on looking ahead to next week's showdown with Georgia, but either way, the Vols are lucky that they were playing the Zips this week.

7. Games to Watch in Week Five

Tennessee at (5) Georgia

Tennessee begins a slate of four difficult games on the road in Athens.  The Vols need to win one of these for Dooley's hot seat to cool down some, but I don't think it will be this one.  Look for a convincing win from the 'Dawgs.

Arkansas at Texas A&M

Nothing I have seen from Arkansas this year convinces me that they will win this game.  Texas A&M should be the first of the SEC newcomers to win a conference game.

Ole Miss at (1) Alabama

The Rebels have improved since last year's embarrassing 52-7 loss to the Tide .  Saturday, we'll see how much.

SEC Football Week Three: The Rundown

Week three in the SEC saw the beginning of the end for two head coaches in the league, in my opinion, as well as turning up the heat on two other coaches who need to find a way to win quickly.  In other SEC towns, quarterback controversies heat up in both Columbia, SC and Columbia, MO, and the top tier of the conference is starting to show a little bit of separation.  Let's start the rundown.

1. Renewed Excitement, Same Old Result
    Back in July, CBS made what seemed to be a good decision at the time, opting for the Alabama-Arkansas game to kick off the SEC on CBS 2012 season over Florida-Tennessee.  By the time Louisiana-Monroe had pulled off the Arkansas upset in overtime last week and ESPN chose Knoxville for their Gameday location, I'm sure the CBS team was kicking themselves.  The Gators and the Volunteers both came into the game undefeated, and given Florida's recent offensive woes, it looked like the best opportunity for Tennessee to break their seven-year losing skid at home with a healthy Tyler Bray, Justin Hunter and newcomer Cordarrelle Patterson.
    At the end of the day, however, it was Florida standing tall in a 37-20 victory that saw the Gators outscore the Vols 27-6 in the second half.  Florida has now won two weeks in a row on the road with come-from-behind heroics and look to be a serious contender for the SEC East title.  The Gators have five of their remaining six conference games coming at the Swamp (only Vanderbilt is a road game).  Meanwhile, after Akron next week, Tennessee will face four straight ranked opponents, with only one home game (versus #1 Alabama) in that stretch.  Derek Dooley's future at Tennessee may be on the line this season, and he still doesn't have a signature win.  If he doesn't pull at least one of these off, I'd suggest it's time to start looking for a real estate agent.

2. Fear the Sun Belt!
    Before the 2012 season, there had been 94 matchups featuring an SEC team and a Sun Belt Conference opponent.  The Sun Belt team had actually won four of those games - a nearly 96% failure rate.  Through week three, however, Louisiana-Monroe took both Arkansas and Auburn to overtime, winning against the former and losing to the latter and Western Kentucky edged Kentucky (32-31) in overtime as well.  In addition, Mississippi State actually traveled to Troy(!) and struggled to pull out a 30-24 victory.  Is the most hated and feared football conference in America in danger of being overtaken by the lowly Sun Belt?
    Well, no, but it does speak to the embarrassment of riches that is football talent in the South that the best teams in the Sun Belt can compete with (and sometimes beat) the weaker teams in the SEC.  Unfortunately, SEC fanbases don't see it that way, and Western Kentucky's narrow defeat has probably sealed the fate of Kentucky coach Joker Phillips, who is 12-15 since taking over the helm at Lexington.  Auburn coach Gene Chizik, on the other hand, staved off any serious discussions about his job for at least one more week.  We'll see how they look after LSU next Saturday.

3. Southern Barbecue
    Poor, poor Arkansas.  The preseason expectations that Hog fans had for their team were probably unrealistic even before Bobby Petrino took his ride into infamy, but my, how the mighty have fallen.  While last week's debacle began to reveal the cracks in the facade, Alabama came into Fayetteville and absolutely crushed the Razorbacks.  By the end of the game the third, fourth and fifth string players for the Tide were not only scoring almost at will, but were preserving the 52-0 shutout, the worst for Arkansas since the 1960s, and Alabama's biggest SEC shutout since 1948.  With John L. Smith's lame duck coaching staff, a quarterback who is calling out his own team in a game in which he didn't take a snap, and a sorely disappointed and disgusted fanbase, things at Arkansas are looking grim.  If the Razorbacks don't right the ship next week at home against 3-0 Rutgers, it's going to be a long season.

4. Quarterback Controversies?
    It's a old saw that players shouldn't lose a starting position due to injury, and granted, James Franklin (Missouri) and Connor Shaw (South Carolina) won the starting quarterback jobs at their respective schools back in 2011.  However, once a starter, especially a QB, gets hurt, he is a target.  Shaw was hurt before playing Vanderbilt in week one, and has actually played fewer minutes so far than his backup Dylan Thompson.  Franklin's shoulder is hurt, and with South Carolina up next, it isn't clear how badly.  Meanwhile, Austyn Carta-Samuels (Vanderbilt) got his first start against Presbyterian in Saturday's blowout and Jordan Rodgers never even took the field.  Is Rodgers hurt?  Was he benched?  Vandy coach James Franklin (no relation to the Mizzou QB) wouldn't say who might start against Georgia next week.  With the pressure that today's coaches have to win early and often to keep their jobs, it's no wonder that the security of a starting quarterback position is tenuous.

5. The Good

(1) Alabama (won 52-0 at Arkansas)

The Crimson Tide has outscored its opponents 134-14 in the first three weeks of the season, and none of the games have been competitive by halftime. It may be mid-October before this team is really tested.

(3) LSU (won 63-14 over Idaho at home)

With USC's loss, the Tigers rose to #2 in both polls, but the Tigers haven't really been tested either.  Don't expect Auburn to provide one on Saturday.

(6) Georgia (won 56-20 over Florida Atlantic at home)

The Bulldogs amassed a school-record 713 yards of offense in a game that wasn't as close as the score might indicate.

(8) South Carolina (won 49-6 over UAB at home)

More significant than the win is that Connor Shaw left the game injured after a savage hit and did not return.  Can Thompson lead the Gamecocks to a win over Mizzou Saturday?

Missouri (won 24-20 over Arizona State at home)

Despite the fact that Missouri gave the Sun Devils ample opportunity to take the game away, the fact is that they won a non-conference game against a team they lost to in 2011, they recovered from last week's loss to Georgia, and they did it with a backup quarterback.  Not too shabby.

Texas A&M (won 48-3 over SMU at home)

The Aggies rolled up over 600 yards of offense in a romp.

6. The Bad

Kentucky (lost 32-31 to Western Kentucky at home in overtime)

They supposed to be SEC?

Ole Miss (lost 66-31 to (17) Texas at home)

While the Rebels were clearly over-matched by the Longhorns, this wasn't actually as bad as I expected it to be.  At least Ole Miss didn't give up, like some SEC West teams I know...

7. The Ugly

Auburn (won 31-28 over Louisiana-Monroe at home in overtime)

Mississippi State (won 30-24 at Troy)

Sure, both Auburn and Mississippi State got wins against their Sun Belt opponents, but is that really something to be proud of?  At least Dan Mullen didn't call it a great win.

8. Games to Watch in Week Four

Missouri at (7) South Carolina

Mizzou hits the road in the SEC for the first time.  I think South Carolina is a better team, but if Connor Shaw can't play, it may be close.  I still favor the Gamecocks.

(2) LSU at Auburn

Remember when this was a marquee game?  Now I just want to see if LSU can break 100.

Rutgers at Arkansas

The Razorbacks need to win and win convincingly.  Not sure if that is going to happen.

Vanderbilt at (5) Georgia

Yeah, the Week Four slate is pretty bad.

SEC Football Week Two: The Rundown

Week two of college football 2012 marked a new day for the Southeastern Conference - the first day of competition for new members Texas A&M and Missouri.  It also saw the first major upset of the season, the top dogs taking care of business and a couple of programs on the brink of [football] disaster.  Let's dig in.

1.  Blame Bobby Petrino.
Eighth-ranked Arkansas's overtime loss to Louisiana-Monroe 34-31 shocked the football world on Saturday, but the origins of this devastating failure occurred on Arkansas Highway 16 back in April, where former coach Bobby Petrino wrecked his motorcycle, his career, and this Razorback squad.  Granted, quarterback Tyler Wilson left the game in the first half with an "above the shoulder" injury (a concussion; a rumored broken collarbone; ???) and did not return, but does anyone doubt that the Razorbacks would have won this game had Petrino been roaming the sidelines?  Future former head coach John L. Smith signed a reported 10-month contract to lead Arkansas for the 2012 season.  Unless the 'Backs reach the SEC Championship and/or the BCS Championship game (an unlikely prospect at this point) the chances of that contract being renewed fall somewhere between slim and none.

2.  Welcome to the SEC.
Texas A&M and Missouri were officially welcomed into the SEC with smiles and handshakes back in July, but the hard reality of life in the nation's toughest football conference began to make itself felt today.  The  home office in Birmingham made certain that both teams received high-profile matchups for their first league games with two of the conference's big six - (24) Florida in the case of the Aggies and (7) Georgia for the Tigers.  Both teams had exuberant, sellout crowds that expected their teams to compete and win, and several pundits predicted one or the other to pull the upset.  Some even said that if A&M and Missouri both won, it would repudiate the SEC to a certain extent, proving that good football was played in other parts of the country than the Deep South.  Whether or not the newcomers to the conference will be competitive in 2012 remains to be seen, but at the end of the day, despite both teams having a lead fairly late into their respective games, the record was 0-2.

3.  Auburn's ship is sinking fast/Mullen gets signature win.
Mississippi State had never won a game against another SEC West team, other than Ole Miss, during Dan Mullen's tenure at Starkville, going a combined 0-12 against Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn and LSU before Saturday's 28-10 wipeout of the Tigers.  The Bulldogs completely dominated Auburn in every facet of the game, forcing five turnovers and holding the Tigers to just 216 total yards of offense.  For at least one week, Bully stands atop the SEC West at 1-0, while Auburn falls to 0-2 overall.  With Louisiana-Monroe coming to town next week after their stunning upset of Arkansas, even games that seemed easy wins previously will likely be a challenge given Auburn's anemic offense.  The Gene Chizik hotseat watch begins now.


4.  Quarterback controversy in Carolina?
A week after South Carolina struggled to a 17-13 win over Vanderbilt and QB Connor Shaw dealt with multiple injuries while throwing for a paltry 67 yards against the Commodores, here comes Dylan Thompson to start for the Gamecocks against East Carolina.  Thompson threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns in a 48-10 romp.  Clearly if Shaw is unhealthy, Thompson will be able to sub for him, but the real question now is whether or not Thompson should be the starter.

5.  In Other News: The Good

(1) Alabama (35-0 over Western Kentucky at home)

 Nick Saban complained this week about how the media didn't treat the Hilltoppers with respect by assuming that the top-ranked Tide would blow them out.  Way to make your point, Coach.


(3) LSU (41-3 over Washington at home)

The Tigers have scored 41 points in two straight games and are flying under the radar as much as possible for a third-ranked team with two blowouts on their resume.


Tennessee (51-13 over Georgia State at home)

Tennessee coasted to an easy victory, led by Tyler Bray's 333 yards passing and two touchdowns in their last tuneup before the Gators come to Knoxville.

Kentucky (47-14 over Kent State at home)

Savor this one Wildcats fans.  Savor it well.

Ole Miss (28-10 over UTEP at home)

The Rebels have quietly started 2-0 for only the second time in the last ten years.  It's all downhill from here.

6.  In Other News: The Bad

Vanderbilt (lost 23-13 at Northwestern)

The media and the fanbase love James Franklin and the way he has inspired Vandy to be more competitive, but in the end, the 'Dores still start off 0-2.


Games to watch in Week Three:

Alabama travels to Arkansas for what promised to be a marquee matchup of top ten teams until the Razorbacks wet the bed against LA-Monroe.  Now the storyline will be focused on whether Wilson will be back and whether Arkansas can rebound.  I expect 'Bama to cruise to an easy victory.

The most intriguing contest of the weekend is the game at Knoxville between Florida and Tennessee.  What used to be the regular first SEC on CBS game has been relegated to second-tier status, but both teams enter the game undefeated and the game poses the first real test for both teams.  I'm picking the Vols to win in a slight upset.

Texas comes to Oxford to face the Ole Miss Rebels, which I suppose is an important game.  Way to step out of the Big 12 to compete against one of the worst teams in the SEC, Texas!  Look for the Longhorns to drop the Rebels by double digits.

SEC Football Week One - What We Have Learned

If there's one thing that every college football fan can agree on, it's that there are a generally three or four throwaway non-conference games on the schedule.  These generally feature some directional school or Sisters of the Poor university that your team uses as a glorified scrimmage partner to prepare for the real games.  The SEC takes a lot of heat for scheduling these types of games, but if, in your excitement about COLLEGE FOOTBALL!!! this weekend you actually assessed the types of games that kicked off the season, you will notice that few games occurred between teams of any consequence, and several of these featured SEC teams.  (As an aside, the other thing that no one remembers about these kinds of games is that all the UABs, Lousiana Monroes, Wyomings, and North Texases of the NCAA would not exist without the large payouts afforded by these mismatches, which finance a large part of their athletics budgets every year, that they are good for the college towns where they are played, providing additional windfalls every year because they allow additional home games, and that they allow an opportunity for some players to hit the field that otherwise would not).  To the extent that these first games of the year tell us anything, they do so only in the rare contests between two good teams, or the even rarer upsets.  However, there are a few things that we learned in week one in the SEC:

1.  Alabama is for real/Michigan is not.
 The only ranked teams in playing each other in Week One were (2) Alabama and (8) Michigan.  After the first quarter of Alabama's 41-14 win over the Wolverines in Cowboys Stadium, it was clear that one team was not deserving of a top ten ranking.  Whether or not Alabama is truly a national championship contender will not be decided in September, or at least it won't be clear before the November showdown with LSU, but Michigan proved that whatever happens, they won't be in Miami for the BCS title game.  Alabama dominated Michigan in every phase of the game, and while the secondary had enough lapses that the Arkansas offense (in two weeks) is a real concern, the Alabama offense moved the ball more or less at will against what will likely turn out to be a decent Big Ten defense.  Michigan may eventually find its way to ten or eleven wins, but as with the 11-1 Big Ten champion Michigan State team that Alabama dismantled 49-7 in the Capital One Bowl after the 2010 season, ten wins in the Big Ten aren't the same is ten wins in the SEC.

2.  South Carolina is suspect/Vanderbilt is better than expected.
After the Gamecocks fought out a tough 17-13 victory over the 'Dores last Thursday, a friend of mine told me that there was no way that South Carolina was the 9th-ranked team in America.  I replied, half jokingly, that maybe Vanderbilt should be #10.  As with the Alabama/Michigan match-up, South Carolina probably wasn't as bad as they looked and Vanderbilt is probably a good deal better than a typical Vandy team.  All the advantages were on Vanderbilt's side - uncharacteristically favorable home crowd, national audience, enthusiastic coaching, and an early injury to South Carolina's Connor Shaw that appeared to hinder him throughout the game.  Yet, at the end of the game, as usual, Vandy came away a loser.  South Carolina will face an East Carolina team next week that won't be an easy out, then UAB - which will, before facing the meat of their SEC schedule.  They need to get the kinks worked out on both offense and defense of they want to make a run at the SEC East crown.

3.  Auburn still has question marks.
Only the most deluded fan would expect that completely changing offensive and defensive coordinators as well as schemes in the off-season would go off without a hitch.  Auburn's defense gave up over 500 yards and ten points in the last ten minutes to a Clemson team that was missing its most dynamic offensive player.  In addition, Kiehl Frazier completed around 40% of his passes and only managed one touchdown against a defense that gave up 70 points in its last game.  Auburn has four more games against teams that are currently ranked in the top ten and are all likely much better than Clemson.  If you assume that the Tigers lose each of those games, you're talking a seven-win season, and between Texas A&M, Mississippi State and possibly even Vanderbilt, you could potentially toss another loss in there somewhere.  Auburn needs to improve quickly before the season goes off the rails.

4.  Tennessee is much better when injury-free.
Tennessee lost several players to injury last year, including wide receiver Justin Hunter, and quarterback Tyler Bray (who returned but played hurt and clearly diminished).  The Vols took care of NC State 35-21 Friday night, and while the Wolfpack is a mediocre opponent, Tennessee needed a big win to build confidence going into the 2012 season.  Bray and Hunter might have been overshadowed by freshman phenom
Cordarrelle Patterson, but if all three stay healthy, 2012 will be better than 2011 for Tennessee.

5.  Teams that looked good putting away inferior competition:

(3) LSU (41-14 over North Texas at home)

The Tigers outgained North Texas by nearly 300 yards, and really, LSU could have named their score.


Missouri (62-10 over Southeastern Louisiana at home)

Missouri scored two touchdowns on punt returns and two touchdowns on turnovers to completely rout the hapless Lions of Southeastern Louisiana.

(10) Arkansas (49-24 over Jacksonville State at home)

Frankly Arkansas let Jacksonville State score too many points and hang around too long before putting them away in the second half, but at least Jacksonville State won their conference last year.

Mississippi State (56-9 over Jackson State at home)

The Bulldogs had two pick-sixes and had nine different rushers en route to 194 yards on the ground.

6.  Teams that didn't look good putting away inferior competition:
(23) Florida (27-14 over Bowling Green at home)

Florida had to score ten points in the fourth quarter to put the game away and gave up 22 first downs to the Falcons while achieving 14 over their own.  It appears that Jeff Driskel won the quarterback job over Jacoby Brissett, but neither looked very sharp.

(6) Georgia (45-23 over Buffalo at home)

While the game wasn't close very long after halftime, Georgia's defense gave up nearly five yards per play to a team that has won five games in the last two years.

Ole Miss (49-27 over Central Arkansas)

Central Arkansas actually led 20-14 at halftime before Ole Miss finally switched into gear, although the Rebels did outgain the Bears by over 200 yards.

7. Teams that did not play.

Texas A&M's game at Louisiana Tech was postponed due to Hurricane Isaac, and Kentucky forgot to show up for their game against (25) Louisville (a 32-14 loss).

Games to watch in Week Two:

Florida travels to College Station, Texas for Texas A&M's first SEC game (and first game, for that matter).  ESPN Gameday will be there and the crowd will likely be electric.  While Florida will probably be favored, in my opinion the Aggies have a good shot to win.

Georgia travels to Columbia, Missouri for the Tigers' first SEC game as well.  Georgia will also be favored, but Missouri will move the ball on the Bulldogs and it could be a shootout. 

Washington travels to LSU for a night game at Tiger Stadium.  The Tigers should easily handle the Huskies, but if nothing else you can determine which version of purple and gold you like best.

Mississippi State and Auburn face off on the plains.  On paper, this looks to be a close game.  The Tigers will be on upset alert, but the Bulldogs rarely pull off an upset over Auburn even when they have a better team (see 2011).

Vanderbilt plays at Northwestern, who just won a scorefest against Syracuse in the Carrier Dome.  The Commodores are probably better than the Orangemen, but this one won't be easy by any means.  We should learn from this whether Vandy is a bowl-competitor in 2012.

I don't know if UTEP at Ole Miss is a game to watch, necessarily, but given that the Miners played Oklahoma pretty well in a 24-7 loss, this might be a rare win for a Conference-USA team over one from the SEC.  It may be a close one anyway.

SEC14: Predictions for the 2012 Football Season

You'll notice that I give each SEC team that would qualify for a bowl game a win in their bowl.  My assumption is that head-to-head, the SEC team is better.  That's how I roll.


SEC WEST
Alabama - Alabama starts 2012 much as it did 2010, coming off of a national championship with high expectations.  The 2010 campaign ended in disappointing fashion, at least by recent standards, finishing 10-3 with losses to South Carolina, LSU and Auburn.  While the Tide has to contend with the loss of a number of starters to graduation and the NFL, the reigning champions seem to have a much more business-like approach to this season than 2010.  Many of the players from 2010 saw how a load of talent doesn't compensate for a dearth of leadership and, perhaps, effort.  That being said, the two biggest tests on the schedule (Arkansas and LSU) are both on the road, and while they may appear slightly less daunting today than they did when the schedules were drawn up, they won't be cakewalks.  If the Tide can stay relatively injury-free however, they have a chance of being the first back-to-back champions of the BCS era.
Likely Wins: Michigan (N), Western Kentucky, @Arkansas, Florida Atlantic, Ole Miss, @Missouri, @Tennessee, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Western Carolina, Auburn

Likely Losses: None

Tossups: @LSU

Prediction: 14-0 (8-0), SEC and National Champion


Arkansas - Even if Bobby Petrino had not taken that ill-fated motorcycle ride, Arkansas still had an uphill road to climb in the SEC West.  Loads of offensive talent and a slightly better defense will make the Razorbacks a formidable opponent, but the list of first-year SEC coaches that have (or should have) won the conference in the modern era is really short.  Tyler Wilson may be the offensive player of the year, but the 'Backs will likely still be in the Cotton Bowl in January.

Likely Wins: Jacksonville State, ULM, Rutgers, @Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Tulsa, @Mississippi State
Likely Losses: Alabama, LSU

Tossups: @Texas A&M, @South Carolina Prediction: 10-3 (5-3), SEC West - 3rd


Auburn - By all accounts, Auburn got two good coordinators in the offseason.  Defensive improvement is going to be the name of the game for the Tigers, but the question mark at quarterback has got to be a point of concern.  Still, a weak schedule and sound play at home favor the Tigers in 2012.

Likely Wins: @Mississippi State, ULM, @Ole Miss, @Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, Alabama A&M

Likely Losses: LSU, Arkansas, Georgia, Alabama

Tossups: Clemson (N), Texas A&M
Prediction: 9-4 (4-4), SEC West - 4th

LSU - Losing the "Honey Badger" is less of a blow to the defense than some pundits might think, but LSU struggled to put points on the board offensively last season with experienced QB play.  Mathieu's real contribution to the team was as a returner and playmaker, and it remains to be seen what kind of leader the Tigers will have with Mettenberger.  Regardless, LSU's strength is its defense, and they may be even better in 2012.  Alabama-LSU, like last year, is a legitimate toss-up, but I'm inclined to go with the team that has a proven quarterback.

Likely Wins: North Texas, Washington, Idaho, @Auburn, Towson, @Florida,@Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Arkansas

Likely Losses: None

Tossups: Alabama, South Carolina
Prediction: 12-1 (7-1), SEC West - 2nd

Ole Miss - The Rebels will improve this year, but no one will notice.

Likely Wins: Central Arkansas, UTEP, Tulane

Likely Losses: Texas, @Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, @Arkansas, @Georgia, @LSU
Tossups: Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Prediction: 3-9 (0-8), SEC West - 7th

Mississippi State - Mississippi State in the Dan Mullen era has always seemed poised for a breakout year.  Unfortunately, State is a decent team in a brutal division.  I suspect MSU will be better than their record indicates, but the only consolation will be beating Ole Miss.  Again.

Likely Wins: Jackson State, @Troy, South Alabama, @Kentucky, MTSU
Likely Losses: Auburn, @Alabama, Texas A&M, @LSU, Arkansas

Tossups: Tennessee, @Ole Miss
Prediction: 7-6 (2-6), SEC West - 6th

Texas A&M - The Aggies have a good new coach and decent talent, but they are going to be overmatched by the big boys in the SEC.  Still, they will be competitive in most games and could pull out an upset or two.  Defensively, though, they will have to get a whole lot better to compete with the top tier.

Likely Wins: @La Tech, @SMU, S Carolina State, @Ole Miss, @Mississippi State, Sam Houston State

Likely Losses: LSU, @Alabama

Tossups: Florida, Arkansas, @Auburn, Missouri
Prediction: 8-5 (3-5), SEC West - 5th

SEC EAST
Florida - Florida is one of the two biggest question marks in my mind this season.  They've got loads of talent and they replaced their weakest link (Charlie Weis at OC), so I suspect that they will be better than last year.  Unfortunately, the speed and finesse of the past needs to be replaced with strength and toughness, and I think the Gators are still at least a year away from title contention.
Likely Wins: Bowling Green, @Tennessee, Kentucky, @Vanderbilt, Missouri, La Lafayette, Jacksonville State

Likely Losses: LSU, South Carolina, Florida State

Tossups: @Texas A&M, Georgia (N)
Prediction: 9-4 (5-3), SEC East - 3rd

Georgia - The Bulldogs are the sexy pick to repeat as champions of the East, mainly because they don't face Alabama, Arkansas or LSU for the second year in a row.  Somehow, I just don't see it happening again, and you just can't go wrong betting on Georgia to underachieve.

Likely Wins: Buffalo, @Missouri, Florida Atlantic, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, @Kentucky, Ole Miss, @Auburn, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech

Likely Losses: None

Tossups: @South Carolina, Florida (N)
Prediction: 11-2 (6-2), SEC East - 2nd


Kentucky - Kentucky is still Kentucky, water is still wet, and the sky is still blue.
Likely Wins: @Louisville, Kent State, Western Kentucky, Samford

Likely Losses: @Florida, South Carolina, Mississippi State, @Arkansas, Georgia, @Missouri, @Tennessee

Tossups: VanderbiltPrediction: 4-8 (0-8), SEC East -7th 

Missouri - The Tigers are a tough team to predict, but offseason injuries have taken a toll and the Missouri defense was already not so hot.  I think that they will compete and surprise some teams, but a middling finish and a mediocre bowl are about the best that they can expect.

Likely Wins: SE Louisiana, @UCF, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Syracuse

Likely Losses: Georgia, @South Carolina, Alabama, @Florida

Tossups: Arizona State, @Tennessee, @Texas A&M

Prediction: 8-5 (3-5), SEC East -5th

South Carolina - The Gamecocks bring back the best running back in the SEC not named Trent Richardson as well as a stingy defense and an efficient game manager at quarterback.  In many ways, Spurrier has built this team into a clone of Alabama, which is why I think that they will win the East this year.  After watching them demolish Nebraska in the Capital One Bowl, I am a believer in this team, even (maybe especially) without Alshon Jeffery.

Likely Wins: @Vanderbilt, East Carolina, UAB, Missouri, @Kentucky, @Florida, Tennessee, Wofford, @Clemson

Likely Losses: None

Tossups: Georgia, @LSU, Arkansas
Prediction: 12-2 (7-1), SEC East - 1st

Tennessee - Coach Derek Dooley, when he was hired, seemed to be a decent choice given the circumstances.  This is his make or break year, and while I think that they will be moderately successful, it remains to be seen whether the Vol Nation will be satisfied with that.

Likely Wins: NC State (N), Georgia State, Akron, Troy, Vanderbilt, Kentucky

Likely Losses: Florida, @Georgia, Alabama, @South Carolina

Tossups: @Mississippi State, Missouri
Prediction: 9-4 (4-4), SEC East - 4th

Vanderbilt - James Franklin has brought excitement and expectations to Vanderbilt for the first time in living memory.  By Vandy standards, I expect a good year, meaning a bowl game and not finishing last in the East.
Likely Wins: Presbyterian, UMass,
Likely Losses: South Carolina, @Georgia, @Missouri, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee

Tossups: @Northwestern, @Kentucky, @Ole Miss, @Wake Forest
Prediction: 7-6 (2-6), SEC East - 6th
 

Review: The Dark Knight Rises

Batman has always been my favorite superhero.  As a matter of fact, I have been a Batman fan so long, I am not sure where my original love for the character started.  I remember watching the Super Friends television shows of the 1970s as a child, but I had a Batman outfit that my grandmother had made for my uncle and then passed down to me (and later iterations that my mother made) as a preschooler.  I vividly remember how exciting it was to dress in the costume and pretend that I was someone else - a hero.  A Batman utility belt I received for Christmas when I was probably four was a prized possession, and it led to one incident where my grandmother got pretty mad at me for knocking over a store display with it once when I went shopping with her - in full costume no doubt.

Later on, when I was in high school 1989's Batman movie brought about a rediscovery of the character for me, as well as the realization that Batman wasn't just for (or maybe even primarily for) kids.  I became a regular reader of the Batman comics titles from that year until marriage, career and fatherhood brought a change in priorities.

Anyway, all of that is to say that Batman, unlike the Avengers, Spider-Man, or Superman, is very personal to me in a way that is hard to describe.  When I saw the horrendous Green Lantern movie or the over-loaded Spider-Man 3, I only lamented the two hours I wasted on watching them, but it didn't really bother me too much.  The Batman movies of Tim Burton and Joel Schumacher, however, bothered me because in various ways they strayed from the characters, stories and history.  Batman had a young Joker as the killer of Bruce Wayne's parents and had Batman basically kill the Joker at the end.  Batman Returns had a Penguin who was a foul, deformed sewer dweller and a schizophrenic Catwoman.  Two-Face in Batman Forever was a complete nutjob and Robin was a full-grown man.  And Batman and Robin?  Nipple-suits is just the tip of the iceberg (see what I did there?).  All of the movies strayed from the Batman mythos in one way or another, which is to be expected when you have a character that is (now) over 70 years old and has seen many different versions.  However, none of them fit my vision of what Batman should be, and worse, they were cartoony in a way that downplays the best thing about Batman as a hero - his plausibility.  Batman is super-smart, super-rich, and super-skilled, but he doesn't come from Asgard or Krypton.  He isn't bitten by a radioactive spider or given an alien ring.  He is only a man - driven by anger, vengeance, a sense of justice and a determination to keep criminals from overrunning his city.

What I love about Christopher Nolan's Batman trilogy is that where he strays from the comic book Batman, he strays toward realism and plausibility.  His Ra's al Ghul isn't immortal.  His scarecrow doesn't have straw sticking out of his sleeves and a rope belt.  His Joker is a believable and truly scary psychopath.  And Nolan, with his brother Johnathan and David S. Goyer, has based each of his movies on actual comic book stories, which, oddly enough, is pretty rare for comic book superheroes.

The Dark Knight Rises is inspired and partially based on three comic book story arcs.  The most obvious parallel is the Knightfall series (1993), which features the first appearance of Bane - a mysterious muscle-bound genius who wants to destroy Batman and take over Gotham.  No Man's Land (1999), in which Gotham is separated from the mainland and is overrun by gangs and The Dark Knight Returns (1986) which depicts an older, battered Batman returning to Gotham after a ten-year absence, also serve as references.

In the movie, eight years has passed since the events of The Dark Knight, and Batman has been basically unseen since he took the fall for Harvey Dent's murder. Bruce Wayne (played by Christian Bale) is a recluse and a physical and emotional cripple.  His body has been ravaged by his former nighttime exploits. His company is in disarray and foundering from poor financial decisions.  With Rachel dead and his alter-ego in hiding, he passes the days aimlessly.  Gotham, however, seems to be riding high.  Organized crime is non-existent, as the "Dent Act" has allowed the police and the justice system to put away most hardened criminals in Blackgate Prison.  Bruce's faithful butler Alfred (the superb Michael Caine) attempts to rouse Bruce from his lethargy, but it takes a robbery of his personal safe in Wayne Manor by a mysterious woman to get his juices flowing again.  Selina Kyle (Anne Hathaway), posing as a maid during a charity event at the Wayne estate, cracks the safe and steals his mother's pearls - the ones that figured into the murder of Thomas and Martha Wayne years before.  However, what intrigues Bruce is that Kyle seems to have actually been after his fingerprints, which she lifted from the safe.  Bruce's investigation opens his eyes to the state of his company and the realization that something bigger is going on in Gotham.  Then an attack on Gotham's stock exchange by the mercenary/criminal Bane (Thomas Hardy) brings Batman out of retirement.  Unfortunately, Bane's plans for Gotham have been a long time in development, and, while Batman has little information about Bane, the opposite is far from true.  Bane's plan is to destroy Batman/Bruce first, and then force him to watch Gotham be destroyed as well.  Can Batman stop him before all is lost?

Things I really liked about the movie:

• Jeopardy - In Batman Begins and The Dark Knight, while the stories were great, I was never in much doubt that the important characters, like Bruce, Alfred, Lucius, or Gordon, were going to live.  Knowing the comics, I was pretty sure that they were going to be part of the story.  However, because Nolan and Bale have both made it clear that this is the last movie in their Batman arc and represent the end of the story, all bets are pretty much off on who will make it to the end.  Lots of internet speculation (and some late-night talk show controversy) has centered around whether or not Batman/Bruce would live or die at the end of the movie.  All this made the jeopardy of this movie feel more real.  Not knowing who will live or die means that the danger feels much more real than in the previous films.
• The wonderful toys - The new Bat - the aerial vehicle - steals every scene it's in, and the Batpod is cool even when Selina is driving it.  The gadget that I thought was funniest was a little throwaway gag that could easily be missed.  When Bruce, after his long absence, appears at a charity event, the paparazzi gather around and start flashing pictures.  Bruce quickly and discreetly presses a button on a device in his hand, and all the cameras stop working.  Now all the celebrities are going to want one of those.
• Selina Kyle - Although the name Catwoman is never spoken in the movie, this version is much closer to the comics than the Michelle Pfeiffer version or the Halle Berry debacle.  I did not expect to like Anne Hathaway in this role, but she gave a much more nuanced performance than I have seen from her before, and she was believable in the fight scenes as well.
• Joseph Gordon-Levitt as John Blake - With Gordon as police commissioner and out of the action for much of the movie, Blake serves as more or less the new Gordon - a good cop who is trying to do right by the people of Gotham as well as his own moral compass.
• Parallels to current events - When Batman fights Bane for the first time in the movie, Bane taunts Batman by telling him that he has grown weak from too many victories.  That immediately struck me as applicable to the United States in the post-Cold War era.  The lack of an obvious enemy led to a false belief that we were at the "end of history," and that prosperity and peace were a permanent condition.  This complacency left us unprepared for the terror attacks and financial hardships that came later.  The parallel has also been drawn between Bane's populist message to the people of Gotham and the Occupy Wall Street movement, although the script and shooting predated the actual protest events.  Nevertheless, Bane attacks the greed and corruption of those in power with the envy and covetousness of those who are not, at least while it suits his purposes.
• The Ending - I am not going to spoil it for those of you who haven't seen it yet, but I will say that I am satisfied with the arc of the story.  I liked the fact that the movie referenced the previous two heavily (it might be a good idea to watch them again if you haven't seen them recently) and that it set the stage for a way to continue the thread of the films without forcing another reboot (Amazing Spider-Man, anyone?).  While the ending didn't make me want to jump up and cheer like the end of The Dark Knight, and I would be happy to watch three more Nolan/Bale Batman movies, I am happy with the story.  What more can you ask?