Saturday, September 26, 2009

SEC in Review: Week Four

So we're basically one-third of the way through the SEC season, and although we're just getting in to the meat of the conference schedule, I think it's time to review. First, let's look back at my preseason predictions for the season and see where I stand.

1. Ole Miss will be good this year, and perhaps beat a team they shouldn't, but they will not go to the SEC Championship Game.

The only thing wrong with this one is that Ole Miss may not be that good. They definitely don't look like a team on its way to Atlanta.

2. Vanderbilt will return to a bowl game.

The jury is still out on this one, but it doesn't look good for the Commodores.

3. Of the three teams with a new coach (Auburn, Mississippi State and Tennessee), State will be the one that performs better than expected.

This one is still debatable, but I would have to give the nod to Auburn. Although they haven't really played anyone that should have threatened them, the offensive improvement over last year cannot be overstated. Mississippi State might have made a better case if they could have punched it in against LSU.

4. Les Miles (LSU) will be on the coaching hot seat by the end of the year.

He got pretty darn close to being there Saturday.

5. Florida will beat Tennessee by at least 35 points.

Unfortunately, this didn't happen.

6. Alabama will win the SEC West.

Looking pretty likely right now.

7. Florida will win the SEC East.

Almost a certainty.

8. Florida will win the SEC.

Not so sure about this after watching 'Bama and Florida so far.

9. Tim Tebow will win the Heisman Trophy.

He won't win it on statistics even assuming that the concussion doesn't keep him out for any significant time. However, Sam Bradford (Oklahoma) and Jevan Snead (Ole Miss) have already more or less been eliminated. It remains to be seen whether Cal's loss to Oregon hurts Jahvid Best. So far though, I would call Colt McCoy the front-runner.

10. The national champion will come from outside the SEC this year.

We won't know this until January, obviously, but with Florida at #1 and Alabama at #3, an SEC representative is relatively likely to make it to Pasadena.


Other observations:

Alabama - The big questions coming in to the season were about the quarterback position and the offensive line. So far, Greg McElroy and the O-line have performed surprisingly well, and Alabama's offense has been much more multidimensional than in 2008. The SEC West is Alabama's to lose.

Arkansas - The Razorbacks have improved significantly with former Michigan transfer Ryan Mallett calling the signals. Unfortunately, their defense is still suspect. One can begin to see the progress under Bobby Petrino's system, but it will be another year or two before Arkansas is a contender.

Auburn - New coach Gene Chizik has the Tigers winning and has Auburn fans thinking championship. Offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn deserves loads of credit for nearly tripling the points per game that Auburn scores on average versus last year. The Tigers are awfully thin though, and with Kodi Burns, Onterio McCalebb and Ben Tate all getting banged up this weekend, the wheels could come off pretty quickly.

Florida - The Gators may not be quite as good as last year's squad, but the conference schedule is almost ludicrously weak. The only question right now is Tim Tebow. How hurt is he, and when will he be back?

Georgia - Surprise, surprise! Losing two offensive stars in the first round of the NFL draft has an impact on your team. The problem for Georgia though is that their defense is still porous as a sieve. The Bulldogs have enough talent to be competitive, but the next four weeks is brutal, with games versus LSU, at Tennessee, at Vandy, and versus Florida. Georgia will be lucky to come out of that stretch with less than two losses.

Kentucky - Kentucky is Kentucky - decent team, not world beaters. Capable of pulling off an upset, the goal this year is going to be getting back to a bowl game. They have a good chance, if they can win one against either MSU, Vandy, or South Carolina.

LSU - Former Tennessee defensive coordinator was supposed to fix LSU's defensive woes. The Fighting Tigers gave up 374 yards Saturday to Mississippi State (over 100 yards more than they had), and staved off a disaster by less than one yard. Given the losses by Ole Miss, California and Penn State, the Tigers might move up to #4 in the polls, but I expect them to be exposed in the next two weeks.

Mississippi - Ole Miss may have fallen victim to their own hype, as some would have you believe, but this team has looked lethargic and out of sync in its first three games. I'm not sure that the Rebels were ever serious contenders for the West title, but they need to tune up next Saturday against Vanderbilt (the Commodores have won the last two meetings) if they want to have a chance against the Crimson Tide in two weeks.

Mississippi State - Coach Dan Mullen was one yard away from a big-time "signature" win Saturday, and he already has brought improvement to the Bulldogs. Unfortunately, it may be hard to tell from the record, as the Bulldogs have a conference schedule that includes Florida, and a nonconference schedule featuring #17 Houston and soon-to-be-ranked Georgia Tech.

South Carolina - Sure, the Gamecocks did defeat a top five team at home for the first time EVER (wrap your head around that), but unfortunately, it was Ole Miss - a team that had no business being ranked there to start with. Still, South Carolina is one play away from being 4-0, and has a decent defense that should keep them in any game. Spurrier's biggest problem the last couple of years has been his team falling apart at the end of the season, so we may not really know about this team until December.

Tennessee - Tennessee got more credit for losing a game than any team ever after last week's 23-13 defeat at Florida, but followed it up with an underwhelming performance against Ohio Saturday. It might be unfair to call the Vols' offense abysmal (that would be reserved for last year's team), but any blue chip senior high school quarterback recruit out there should expect to be able to start next year for Tennessee. A bowl game would be an accomplishment.

Vanderbilt - The Commodores went to their first bowl game in 50 years last season. Given the schedule, it's going to be an uphill climb to repeat that accomplishment. The Dores blew their best opportunity for an SEC win against Mississippi State, and they will probably not be favored in any other conference game.

Review: No. 3 Alabama 35, Arkansas 7

In a game that some people were pointing to as Alabama's first real test, the Crimson Tide (4-0, 1-0 SEC) crushed the Arkansas Razorbacks (1-2, 0-2) 35-7, in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score indicated.

Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallett, who led the nation in passing efficiency and the SEC in passing yardage coming into the game, was badgered and beaten by 'Bama's defense all day. Mallett, who finished just 12-of-35 for 161 yards, threw his first interception of the season late in the the game, was sacked three times, and seemed out of sync with his receivers most of the day.

Arkansas came into the game with the nation's 2nd-ranked offense, and had scored 41 points the previous weekend in a losing effort at Georgia. But Alabama's defense, ranked 3rd in the country, stifled the Hogs, holding them nearly 200 yards below their average. The Tide dominated with big plays, scoring touchdowns on plays of 52, 50, 80, 14 and 2 yards.

My Seven Points for this game:

1. We're learning more about the kind of team Alabama has. It goes without saying that the system of preseason rankings can be significantly flawed; witness Clemson last year, Alabama in 2000, and any one of a hundred other examples. Two things happened today that served to confirm Alabama's ranking. First, Alabama has been in a position to score additional points late in every game so far this season and has run the clock out instead, not needing additional points to win. It happened again today against a team that was averaging 45 points a game. Second, No. 11 Virginia Tech, who Alabama beat 34-24 to start the season, delivered a crushing 31-7 defeat to No. 9 Miami. Unlike Clemson, who completely fell apart last year after losing to Alabama, Tech has now defeated two ranked teams since losing to the Tide.

2. The most costly play of the game for Alabama came in the first quarter. It was the one that took out Dont'a Hightower. Hightower left the game late in the first quarter with a knee injury, and while there were no official indications of the severity, all observable signs were bad. Hightower is one of the best players on the Alabama defense and the loss of #30 will be significant.

3. Bama's defense is for-real. Not that many people will be surprised with the quality of the Tide defense, but they completely dominated a high-powered, productive offense that was by far the best one that they have faced this season. Even observers who predicted an easy win for Alabama assumed that the Hogs would have a few big plays and score several times. Many pundits expected a shootout like Arkansas's 52-41 loss to Georgia. This defense is much better than Georgia's.

4. Greg McElroy continues to improve. McElroy didn't have a perfect day - there were a few too many missed connections and dropped balls. He did, however, have a career day, passing 24 times and completing 17 of them for 291 yards and 3 touchdowns. Oh, and as a starter, he has never lost a game. McElroy started for his high school team his senior year and won the 5A state championship, finishing 16-0. He is 4-0 as the Alabama signal caller.

5. Julio got his touchdown. A few statisticians with too much time on their hands observed this week that wide receiver Julio Jones had not scored a touchdown in 11 games, dating back to last season. Gary Danielson, the CBS television color analyst, observed this immediately before Alabama executed a gadget play from the "Wildcat" formation, snapping the ball to Mark Ingram, who handed off to Terry Grant, who flipped it back to Greg McElroy, who threw it to a wide open Jones. Julio then completed the 50-yard play by breaking free of a tackle and scoring a touchdown.

6. Trent Richardson is a full-grown man. Richardson's 52-yard touchdown run to start the game was a thing of beauty. He broke through at least four tackles before speeding past the secondary and scoring. For anyone who has watched any of his high school highlights, the run looked awfully familiar. He also took an Arkansas safety head on along the left sideline later in the game and knocked him on his tail with a punishing hit, gaining a few extra yards after the play. It's a pleasure to watch him carry the rock.

7. This team enjoys playing the game. You call tell that these guys are having a good time. Every big play, they are jumping, chest-bumping, and slapping each other on the back. McElroy even had a mini celebration after drawing the Hogs offside facing first-and-ten from nearly his own goal line. After watching teams like Ole Miss, USC, Cal, BYU and Miami fall apart in the last two weeks after reading about how good they were, it's nice to see the Tide playing loose and not letting the pressure of being #3 in the country get to them. Credit for that goes to the Nick Saban and the coaching staff.

Saturday, September 19, 2009

Review: No. 4 Alabama 53, North Texas 7

On the first play from scrimmage, Alabama's Greg McElroy fumbled as he went back to pass and turned the ball over to North Texas. Other than that play, Alabama was nearly perfect, scoring two touchdowns in each of the first three quarters and holding North Texas under 200 yards of offense and a late touchdown against the second and third teamers. Shaking off the inconsistency and lack of focus that characterized the first two games, Alabama (3-0, 0-0 SEC) was able to put together a complete game, and give some less experienced players meaningful time on the field, unlike the previous week against FIU.

Alabama is 19-1 all-time against teams in the Sun Belt conference, the lone scourge on that record the loss against Louisiana-Monroe barely two seasons ago. This 'Bama team bears scant resemblance to that one, putting together its largest point total in a game since Dennis Francione's first season (2001). Given USC's upset loss to Washington, the Tide can expect to rise to at least number 3 in both polls on Monday, setting up an important game with an improved Arkansas team to start SEC play next weekend. If the Tide continues to play like they did today, this season could be something special.

My Seven Points:

1. How in the world did Greg McElroy ever sit on the bench behind John Parker Wilson? Sure, Wilson ended his career as Alabama's statistical leader in passing, but savvy 'Bama fans realize that Wilson's inconsistency and poor decision-making cost the Tide as many victories as he brought on his own. McElroy on the other hand, after a shaky first half against Virginia Tech, has been almost as efficicient as it is possible to be. McElroy finished 13 of 15 with 176 yards and two TDs (he had another one rushing) and his touchdown pass to Marquis Maze was a thing of beauty - the kind of pass Wilson could never seem to complete. Most important though, McElroy mastered the offense to such an extent that backup QB Star Jackson played the majority of the second half, after the Tide amassed 37 points.

2. Who would have thought that 'Bama could go two games without Julio Jones and hardly notice? Jones (WR) and Roy Upchurch (RB) sat for the game, although Jones could probably have played. Interestingly enough, Alabama didn't need him. McElroy continued to find McCoy, Hanks, and Peek as well as Ingram out of the backfield. Jones is a special player, but it's really nice to see these other guys stepping up their games in his absence.

3. Mark Ingram's dark horse Heisman candidacy is a fading memory. Not that Ingram couldn't carry the load if he had to, but he doesn't have to. Ingram had 91 yards rushing and a TD on eight carries, but Trent Richardson had 87 yards and Terry Grant had 79 and two TDs. Even without Upchurch, 'Bama has more running back depth and talent at one time since probably the mid-eighties, when Bobby Humphrey, Kerry Goode and Gene Jelks all wore crimson.

4. Kickoff coverage was better, but not perfect. While the Tide didn't give up a score this week, and there were no long returns that held up, North Texas did get a return of nearly seventy yards called back on a penalty. This is a weak spot that must be corrected if Alabama wants to make a championship run.

5. Javier Arenas. What else can you say about one of the best return men in the country? Arenas set up three scores with punt returns of 33 and 36 yards and a kick return of 61, and fought through one hit and tackle after another. Then, of course, he goes on to provide smothering coverage in the defensive secondary.

6. PATs are not optional. Leigh Tiffin continued to display some inconsistency, missing two extra points. Over his career, Tiffin has shown an ability to hit long, clutch kicks, but then miss what could be considered easy, much shorter ones. Against SEC competition, 'Bama cannot leave points on the field.

7. Offensive and defensive productivity are remarkably consistent. Alabama had 523 yards of offense against North Texas (516 against FIU, 498 against Va. Tech) for a 512 yards per game average. The Tide offense was again very balanced between rushing (260 yards) and passing (263 yards). The offense averages 268 ypg rushing and 245 ypg passing. Defensively, 'Bama held North Texas below 100 yards rushing (61 yds), as it did FIU (1 yard) and Va. Tech (64). The defense allowed 187 total yards to the Mean Green, slightly above its 185 ypg average.

Saturday, September 12, 2009

Review: No. 4 Alabama 40, Florida International 14

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban harangued the media in his press conference this week for questioning him about a "letdown" this week after last Saturday's victory over then seventh-ranked Virginia Tech. Well, surprise, surprise! There might have been a little bit of a letdown.

To be fair, unlike last year, when 'Bama followed up the season-opening win over a top-ten Clemson team with a sub-par performance against Tulane, 'Bama's offense appeared to be firing on nearly all cylinders for most of the night. Quarterback Greg McElroy was on fire in the first half, hitting nearly every pass early on and completing 14 in a row - a new school record. He finished 18 of 24 for 241 yards and a TD. Despite sparing play from star wideout Julio Jones (who hurt his knee early in the game) and running back Mark Ingram (who had been hospitalized for the flu earlier this week), the Tide moved the ball up and down the field, although the team had to settle for short field goals from Leigh Tiffin instead of touchdowns on two occasions and missed a third.

In this game, however, the Tide gave up another kickoff return for a touchdown, and then allowed FIU to drive the field and score on a second quarter pass that put the Golden Panthers up 14-13 briefly. FIU's pass-happy offense was somewhat effective, at least until halftime.

Here are my seven points:

1. This year's team appears to be the polar opposite of last year's. The M.O. of the 2008 Tide was to hammer you with the running game, clobber you early and hold on to win. They went to the LSU game before they even trailed anyone. The 2009 Tide starts slow but is much more balanced on offense (averaging 271.5 yards rushing and 235.5 passing), and has destroyed its first two opponents in the fourth quarter, outscoring them 32-7.

2. 'Bama has talent at wide receiver. With Julio out, Mike McCoy stepped up his game, catching 5 passes for 100 yards and a touchdown. But McElroy spread the ball around to a number of wide open receivers, and completed 75% of them.

3. Trent Richardson is going to be special. It wasn't as amazing a debut as Shaun Alexander's breakout game against LSU in 1996, but in Richardson's first significant work, he had 118 yards on 15 carries and two TDs.

4. Congrats to Terry Grant. The fact that Terry Grant was once the starting running back for Alabama may say more about the level of talent under Saban compared to that under Mike Shula. But Grant, who is fourth or fifth on the depth chart now as a senior got a carry in relief and made the most of it, scrambling 42 yards for a touchdown in the final quarter. He has worked hard for four years while seeing less and less playing time, so I'm glad he got a little taste of the glory tonight.

5. McElroy is gaining confidence. After a shaky start, McElroy is 27-36 passing in the last six quarters of play. That's a 75% average, which seems about 25% better than John Parker Wilson averaged.

6. This is probably the last pay-per-view game until November. Given that the SEC Network picked up next week's matchup with North Texas, and the fact that the Tide will begin the meat of the schedule the following week, the next questionable television game is against Chattanooga on the next-to-last week of the regular season.

7. On a crazy second week of college football, a 26-point win is acceptable. The Tide may have underperformed as a 33-point favorite, but considering the upsets suffered today by Oklahoma State, Notre Dame, Tennessee and Michigan State - and near misses for Georgia, Florida State and Missouri - 40-14 doesn't seem so bad.

Saturday, September 05, 2009

Review: No. 5 Alabama 34, No. 7 Virginia Tech 24

For three quarters, the seventh-ranked Hokies stood toe-to-toe with #5 Alabama and actually led them 17-16. Virginia Tech had taken advantage of numerous mistakes by the Tide - fumbles, blown kickoff return coverage, penalties - and made them count on the scoreboard. But, much like Alabama versus Florida in the SEC Championship last year, the best team asserted itself in the final quarter.

'Bama began to gel as an offensive unit tonight, and showed signs of dominance in the running game against a stingy Virginia Tech defense. By the end, Mark Ingram had 150 yards rushing, the Tide had nearly 500 yards of offense, and Alabama walked away from the Georgia Dome a winner again over the Hokies.

So what did we learn tonight?

1. Greg McElroy can make plays when he has to. McElroy started shakily, beginning 2 for 8 in the first half. By the end, however, he was back at 50% (15 of 30) and had made perhaps the most important play in the game - a 48-yard bomb to Marquis Maze that set up the go-ahead touchdown.

2. Alabama's defense is as good as advertised. The Hokies were held to 155 total yards of offense, and 'Bama's defense really dominated the game more than the score indicated.

3. Tyrod Taylor may be ready to be a passer, but it didn't show tonight. Taylor did not make any significant plays in the passing game and finished 9 of 20 for 91 yards.

4. There are other 'Bama receivers besides Julio Jones. Jones was double-teamed most of the game, but Maze and Darius Hanks made several big plays. And most gratifying to Tide fans, several big catches were made by the tight end, Colin Peek.

5. The "Wildcat" appears to be a significant part of the Tide offense. Ingram received several direct snaps in the Wildcat formation, and Upchurch even got in on the action. The results were mixed, but the Tide ran it often enough that it looks to be more than just a passing fancy.

6. Virginia Tech may contend for a title, but it won't be a national title. The Hokies are good in two phases of the game - defense and special teams - but the offense was lethargic. The one bright spot was running back Ryan Williams, whose TD run in the fourth quarter was something special.

7. Bama likely will be undefeated through October. There isn't another significant challenge to the Tide until they travel to Ole Miss on Oct. 10, and, after Oklahoma's upset defeat today, Alabama should be be ranked no lower than 4th in the country by then.